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April 07, 2008

Transaction: Marlins Option VandenHurk to AA

Transaction: The Marlins optioned RHP Rick VandenHurk to AA after giving up 7 ER in 5 and 1/3 IP.  He got two starts this year, and didn't do much with either of this.  He turns 23 in May; he'll be back.

Analysis: He got 81.7 IP to prove himself last year in the Show, and couldn't do it - he was on a short leash to begin this year.  Some time at AA then AAA will help him refine his stuff.

Recommendation: VandenHurk will be back, but probably later in the season.  NL Only leaguers can cut him loose.

Affected Players: The Fish called up Burke Badenhop to take VandenHurk's spot.  Badenhop has only logged 25 IP at AA, so he's not exactly a proven commodity at this point.  He came over to the Fish in the Cabrera/Willis deal.  Looking at his MiLB numbers, it's evident he's not an elite K guy [6.02 K/9], but has put up decent rate stats [2.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP].  Using PECOTA's weighted means, I'd put him at -$30.95 in Mixed and -$24.55 in NL Only leagues.  In other words: stay away!

Source: Joe Frisaro, MLB.com

April 06, 2008

Transaction: Wes Helms Traded to Florida

Transaction: The Phillies traded Wes Helms and cash to the Marlins for a PTBNL.

Analysis: The Phils signed Helms to a $5.45M deal after hitting .329/.390/.575 in 240 ABs for the Fish in '06.  He didn't do to well for Philly, going .246/.297/.368 in 280 ABs in '07.  In the offseason, they signed Pedro Feliz to man the hot corner, blocking Helms.  The Phils seemed like they were just happen to relieve some of the money owed to him.

Recommendation: With Jorge Cantu and Mike Jacobs at the CI spots in Florida, Helms will have some competition for PT.  He's obviously irrelevant to Mixed leaguers, but could be a good add in NL Only leagues if you're willing to only start him against lefties, where he's hit .023/.050/.060 better in his career.  The Fish could have a nice platoon at 3B if they start Cantu vs. RHP and Helms vs. LHP.  Given the shape of my NL Only team, I had to add Helms and pray for him to get PT.

Affected Players: I'd imagine Cantu won't get every start against a LHP, but otherwise, the Fish's depth chart should remain relatively unchanged.

March 31, 2008

Transaction: Orioles Cut Gibbons

Transaction: The O's cut OF/DH Jay Gibbons, and will eat the $11.9M owed to him.

Analysis: Gibbons was pretty injury ridden for the past few seasons.  He hadn't played a full season since 2003.  He was still a decent source for HRs, but .277 seemed to be his ceiling for AVG [he eerily hit that mark in '03, '05, and '06].  I think this move makes sense for the rebuilding O's.  Gibbons' PT could be better used to get a better look at a player for the future.

Recommendation: Cut him loose in all formats, as the market for him in reality is unknown.  He might land a gig if he's willing to take a sizeable pay cut...then again, he will be making $11.9M for doing nothing over the next two years.  Would you work if you had that situation?

Affected Players:

  • Scott Moore: The ex-Cubs 3B should see a bigger share of time all around, according to the article. He's a Quad-A type player, but should hit for some decent power if he gets the PAs.  He was a 20/20 player just two seasons ago at High A, but seems to have lost the base stealing magic.  I'd put him at -$6.93 in Mixed leagues, and $4.77 in AL Only formats.

Source: ESPN / Associated Press

Transaction: Angels Send Wood, Morales to Minors

Some of the posts early on today may be old news to those who kept a close eye on the movements yesterday, but I'm just getting caught up after a day of schoolwork.

Transaction: The Angels sent  3B/SS Brandon Wood and 1B Kendry Morales to AAA Salt Lake City.  They also sent Ps Nick Adenhart & Alex Serrano, OFs Dee Brown & Terry Evans, and Cs Ryan Budde & Bobby Wilson down as well.  That's going to be a fun AAA team to watch.

Analysis: This will be Wood's second try at AAA.  He hit .272/.338/.497 there, playing 3B with a little bit of SS as well.  Everyone has to remember that Wood is still only entering his age 23 season, and is only two seasons removed from one of the best offensive minor league seasons in recent memory, when he hit .321/.381/.667 with 43 HRs and 21 SBs in 536 ABs at High-A.  It looks like Chone Figgins has 3B held down, so look for Wood to move back to SS at AAA.  As for Morales, he seems to already be able to hit high level pitching, logging a .326 AVG between AAA and MLB last year.  His slugging decreased though, and if you're going to be handicapped to 1B, you gotta slug there...although the Angels are starting Casey Kotchman, who hasn't slugged above .500 at any level since 2004.

Recommendation: Hang onto Wood in AL Only leagues, as I'd imagine he'll get the call quickly if he gets close to his '05 form.  Morales' picture is a little more complicated, as the best case scenario for him is to force into a platoon with Kotchman at 1B.  I'd let him go in AL Only's for now, though.

Affected Players:

  • Casey Kotchman: This solidifies his job at 1B.  Given his projected playing time from BP, I'd put him at -$6.75 in Mixed leagues, and $5.34 in AL Only's.
  • Erick Aybar: Wood was playing a little SS during spring training, so the demotion gives Aybar the clear cut majority of PT.  He'll swipe a few bases, that's for sure.  I'd put him at -$14.17 in Mixed leagues, and $8.10 in AL Only's.
  • Maicer Izturis: He's clearly the main infield backup now, and should see time at 2B, SS and 3B.  I'd put him at -$7.07 in Mixed leagues, and $11.45 in AL Only's. 

Source: ESPN / Associated Press

March 29, 2008

Transaction: Woody Williams

Transaction: The Astros gave Woody Williams his unconditional release. 

Analysis: I saw Woody pitch his last game as an Astro last night, and I completely agree with Wade/McLane's decision to pay him $6.5M not to pitch.  His fastball had absolutely no life on it; it sat in the mid 80s.  He gave up 5 ER in 3 IP.  Woody has said he'll retire.

Recommendation: Do I even really have to say anything here?

Affected Players: Chris Sampson will get the 5th spot in the rotation.  He had a 2.91 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 528 minor league innings from '03 to '06.  That was done with a 5.69 K/9, but a 4.18 K/BB. Last year, his walk rate spiked up and was reflected in his 4.59 ERA and his 1.38 WHIP.  His peripheral ERA was 5.02, implying that the 4.59 was actually quite fluky.  His stuff isn't anywhere near good, but his command is pretty impressive at times.  Given BP's projections, I have Sampson worth -$10.31 in mixed leagues, and -$4.66 in NL Only leagues...but I think he might surprise some people if his command goes back anywhere near his minor league levels.  His BABIP [.294] was kind of high in comparison to his previous marks, and I think the defensive improvements the Astros made could really help him.  I'd consider him an NL Only sleeper, but hold off until he gets a few starts.

March 27, 2008

Transaction: Homer Bailey

Transaction: Bailey was sent to AAA Louisville to start the season.

Analysis: Bailey had control problems, perhaps most evidently shown in a six walk outing against Toronto on Monday night.  Combine that with his struggles in the bigs last year, his rumored indifference to coaching, and the fact that Dusty Baker is his manager, and you see why he's going to AAA.  The people in Louisville will get to see some good baseball with both Bailey and Bruce playing for the Bats, for a few months of the season at least. 

Recommendation:

  • Mixed: For now, cut Bailey lose.
  • NL Only: I'd keep him for now, as you know he's the next in line for a rotation spot.  If he struggles at AAA, you can drop him at that point.  If you really want to drop him right now for Woody Williams, you're on your own.

Affected Players: This pretty much solidifies the Reds' rotation.  Let's review:

  • Aaron Harang: Mixed: $20 to $22, NL Only: $26 to $28.
  • Bronson Arroyo: Mixed: $2 to $4, NL Only: $9 to $11.
  • Johnny Cueto: Mixed: -$4 to -$6, NL Only: $1 to $2.
  • Edinson Volquez: Mixed: -$4 to -$6, NL Only: $1 to $2.
  • Josh Fogg: Mixed: -$8 to -$10, NL Only: -$4 to -$6.

Transaction: Chase Headley

I missed this one a few days ago.  Regardless, I'm going to use it as an excuse to discuss the Padres' OF situation and debut the new format I'm going to use to discuss the various transactions that will happen throughout the season.

Transaction: The Padres optioned 3B/OF Chase Headley to AAA Portland.

Analysis: They're just being cautious with Headley, who did mash in AA last year and in spring training this year.  Regardless, they want him to log some playing time in AAA to continue his move from 3B to LF as well as vet his bat some more.  If he hits like he did this Spring, he'll be back in a jiffy.

Recommendation:

  • Mixed: Cut him.
  • NL Only: Keep him in really deep leagues, but cut him in shallower formats.

Affected Players: With Headley out of the picture, the situation in the OF just got a little clearer for the Friars.

  • Scott Hairston: Presumed to be "the guy" in LF, Hairston will play in CF before Jim Edmonds returns from whatever is ailing him this hour.  Once Edmonds comes back for his 2 games before the All Star Break, Hairston will probably go back to LF.  His PT is probably the safest in the Padres' OF. Mixed Leagues: $1 to $2, NL Only: $10 to $12.
  • Paul McAnulty: San Diego also picked up Jason Huber (see below) and I think McAnulty is the one to suffer.  Huber is out of options, and Kevin Towers has said he'll be on the 25 man roster.  McAnulty is still being discussed as the opening day LF, but I think Huber's versatility will get him more PT.  Mixed Leagues: -$25 to -$30, NL Only: -$8 to -$10.
  • Justin Huber: Picked up from KC for a PTBNL, Huber should see playing time at both corner outfield spots, a limited amount at 1B, and in emergency situations at C.  He's two years younger than McAnulty, and is just two seasons removed from a minor league batting title.  Although he can play all over, I'm still not certain he'll get a plethora of playing time, especially when Edmonds comes back. Mixed Leagues: -$20 to -$25, NL Only: -$3 to -$5.