Nine Bo Jacksons

Putting It All Together: Closers

We're going to try something different for the closers.  In each round, this graph will show you the relationship between the value of the closers selected and the value of talent you can find at other positions. As an example, if you look at the 4th round, you'll find that the closer value [$20.54] is nearly identical to the average value you can find at other positions in that round [$20.64]. Look at the ADP Data section for more info on which closers are going where.

The "Ah, to hell with it" Point [when you might as well wait to take a replacement level player]: N/A

Best W Source: Mariano Rivera [6]
Best SV Source: Joe Nathan [43]
Best SO Source: Francisco Rodriguez [91]
Best ERA Source: Jonathan Papelbon [2.41]
Best WHIP Source: Jonathan Papelbon [1.00]

Average CL with Positive Value: 4.0 W, 63.1 SO, 3.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 29.5 SV

Stars [Number of categories in which a player is projected to be above the positional average]:

• Five Star Players: Jonathan Papelbon, J.J. Putz, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Huston Street, Billy Wagner, Francisco Rodriguez, Takashi Saito, Jose Valverde
• Four Star Players: Rafael Soriano [ERA, W, SO, WHIP], Trevor Hoffman [ERA, W, SV, WHIP]
• Three Star Players: Matt Capps [ERA, W, WHIP], Francisco Cordero [W, SV, SO], Joakim Soria [ERA, SO, WHIP], Brad Lidge [W, SV, SO], George Sherrill [ERA, W, SO]
• Two Star Players: Bobby Jenks [W, SV], Manny Corpas [W, SV], B.J. Ryan [ERA, WHIP], Chad Cordero [W, SV], Joe Borowski [W, SV], Carlos Marmol [W, SO]
• One Star Players: Jason Isringhausen [W], Kevin Gregg [SO], Jeremy Accardo [W]
• Zero Star Players: Eric Gagne, Troy Percival, Brian Wilson, Todd Jones, Kerry Wood, C.J. Wilson, Brandon Lyon

ADP Data
Round-Player Selected [$ Value]

• 1-
• 2-
• 3-
• 4-Jonathan Papelbon [$20.54]
• 5-J.J. Putz [$20.18]
• 6-Joe Nathan [$19.94], Francisco Rodriguez [$17.08]
• 7-Takashi Saito [$16.55]
• 8-Jose Valverde [$14.72], Francisco Cordero [$12.54], Billy Wagner [$17.55]
• 9-Bobby Jenks [$11.97], Mariano Rivera [$20.01]
• 10-Trevor Hoffman [$12.37]
• 11-Huston Street [$17.98], Manny Corpas [$10.73]
• 12-Chad Cordero [$8.92]
• 13-Rafael Soriano [$13.61], Matt Capps [$13.44], Jason Isringhausen [$5.83], Joakim Soria [$10.56]
• 14-Carlos Marmol [$2.27], Brad Lidge [$10.02]
• 15-
• 16-Kevin Gregg [$4.29], Joe Borowski [$3.90]
• 17-Brandon Lyon [-$0.38], Todd Jones [$1.00], Eric Gagne [$7.53], B.J. Ryan [$10.15]
• 18-Troy Percival [$4.47]
• 19-C.J. Wilson [-$0.18], Brian Wilson [$2.00], George Sherrill [$9.18]
• 20-
• 21-
• 22-Jeremy Accardo [$4.16]
• 23-

Undrafted (And of Positive Value):

• Kerry Wood [$0.88]

Drops:

• After Round 4: $0.36
• After Round 5: $0.17
• After Round 9: $2.03
• After Round 11: $4.37
• After Round 13: $3.46
• After Round 17: $0.97
• After Round 19: $5.02

My Strategy:

• I tend to avoid the elite guys like Paps, Putz, & Co. because I think comparable value can be found 4-5 rounds later in guys like Wagner, Rivera & Street.  Given the attrition rate at closer, there's a good chance that somewhere between 33 and 50 percent of the guys we're talking about as closers currently will lose their job due to bad performance or injury - so why use a 4th or 5th rounder on one?  Look at B.J. Ryan last year.  After a sick '06, His ADP was 56.70, meaning he was going in the late 5th round.  For that 5th rounder, people who took Ryan got 4.3 IP of 12.46 ERA ball and 3 saves.  Ryan is the reason why you shouldn't take closers ahead of the 8th or 9th round.  Also, I tend to avoid ticking timebombs like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones, especially in H2H leagues.  You're just asking for trouble with those guys.  Street is looking pretty good in the 11th; I think too many people are scared off by his injury last year.  Soriano, Capps, and Soria are solid sleepers, as are B.J. Ryan [irony!] and George Sherrill.  If I had to sum up my advice on closers: avoid the rush, and watch the waiver wire throughout the season.

Prospects to Watch:

• In lieu of prospects, I'm just going to direct you to Tim Dierkes' page on closers.  He runs it down pretty comprehensively.  When Dr. James Andrews' business starts picking up this year, it's a good idea to know who is next in line for save opportunities.

Putting It All Together: Starting Pitchers

I'm issuing the same warning that I gave to the OF chart for this one - don't put too much faith into this chart.  With a position like P, where we have to fill 9 spots, its naive to treat it as if we only have to fill one spot.  I haven't really quantified how to deal with this yet, but the other data should provide good insight into the way the position is going.

The "Ah, to hell with it" Point [when you might as well wait to take a replacement level player]: N/A

Best W Source: Johan Santana [17]
Best SV Source: N/A
Best SO Source: Johan Santana [232]
Best ERA Source: Jake Peavy [3.06]
Best WHIP Source: Johan Santana [1.06]

Average SP with Positive Value: 12.3 W, 156.23 SO, 3.75 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Stars [Number of categories in which a player is projected to be above the positional average]:

• Five Star Players: None.
• Four Star Players: Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia, Cole Hamels, John Smoltz, Francisco Liriano, Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, Erik Bedard, Dan Haren, Rich Hill, Justin Verlander
• Three Star Players: Chris Young [SO, ERA, WHIP], Scott Kazmir [W, SO, ERA], Aaron Harang [W, SO, WHIP], Roy Halladay [W, ERA, WHIP], Javier Vazquez [W, SO, WHIP], John Lackey [W, SO, ERA], A.J. Burnett [SO, ERA, WHIP], James Shields [W, SO, WHIP]
• Two Star Players: Pedro Martinez [ERA, WHIP], Daisuke Matsuzaka [W, SO], Dustin McGowan [W, SO], Matt Cain [SO, ERA], Felix Hernandez [SO, ERA], Carlos Zambrano [W, SO], Rich Harden [ERA, WHIP], Ted Lilly [W, SO], Chris Carpenter [ERA, WHIP]
• One Star Players: Ben Sheets [WHIP], Clay Buchholz [WHIP], Brett Myers [SO], Yovani Gallardo [SO], Greg Maddux [WHIP], Fausto Carmona [W], Randy Johnson [WHIP], Tim Hudson [W], Derek Lowe [W], John Maine [SO], Ian Snell [SO], Chad Billingsley [SO], Mark Prior [ERA], Joe Blanton [W], Curt Schilling [WHIP], Chien-Ming Wang [W], Andy Pettitte [W], Oliver Perez [SO], Jeff Francis [W], Dontrelle Willis [W], Daniel Cabrera [SO]
• Zero Star Players: Jered Weaver, Kelvim Escobar, Joba Chamberlain, Jeremy Bonderman, Hiroki Kuroda, Kevin Slowey, Phil Hughes, Adam Wainwright, Brad Penny, Kevin Correia, Bronson Arroyo, Barry Zito, Shawn Hill, Chuck James, Tom Gorzelanny, Josh Johnson, Orlando Hernandez, Roger Clemens, Jason Schmidt, Anthony Reyes, Justin Germano, Carlos Villanueva, Zack Greinke, Scott Baker, David Bush, Mike Mussina, Chris Capuano, Ian Kennedy, Jason Bergmann, Andy Sonnanstine, Freddy Garcia, Shaun Marcum, Mark Buehrle, Jon Lieber, Bartolo Colon, Ervin Santana, Matt Clement, Randy Wolf, Nate Robertson, Adam Miller, Gil Meche, Jon Garland, Matt Garza, Micah Owings, Edgar Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, Dallas Braden, Manny Parra, John Patterson, Jorge Sosa, Aaron Laffey, Kevin Millwood, Chad Gaudin, Taylor Buchholz, Wandy Rodriguez, Cliff Lee, Tim Wakefield, Jesse Litsch, Kenny Rogers, Joe Saunders, Jake Westbrook, Sean Marshall, Chris Sampson, Jason Hirsh, Braden Looper, Jair Jurrjens, Brett Tomko, Esteban Loaiza, Andrew Miller, Jarrod Washburn, J.P. Howell, Boof Bonser, Jamie Moyer, Brandon McCarthy, Yusmeiro Petit, Matt Belisle, Brian Bannister, Jose Contreras, Noah Lowry, Claudio Vargas, Joel Pineiro, Carlos Silva, Sergio Mitre, Kei Igawa, Rick Vanden Hurk, Byung-Hyun Kim, Kyle Lohse, Paul Byrd, Paul Maholm, Aaron Cook, Woody Williams, Mike Pelfrey, Homer Bailey, Doug Davis, Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Morris, Edinson Volquez, Jeff Weaver, Scott Olsen, Tom Glavine, Jason Marquis, Miguel Batista, Vicente Padilla, Jeff Suppan, Kyle Kendrick, Garrett Olson, Jon Lester

ADP Data
Round-Player Selected [$ Value]

• 1-
• 2-Johan Santana [$40.58], Jake Peavy [$34.54]
• 3-
• 4-Erik Bedard [$17.86], Brandon Webb [$25.12], Josh Beckett [$19.29]
• 5-C.C. Sabathia [$24.08], John Lackey [$14.23], Cole Hamels [$22.85]
• 6-Dan Haren [$17.16], Justin Verlander [$13.97], Carlos Zambrano [$10.24], Aaron Harang [$15.81]
• 7-Scott Kazmir [$16.08], Roy Oswalt [$18.01], John Smoltz [$22.75], Felix Hernandez [$11.23]
• 8-Chris Young [$16.81]
• 9-Roy Halladay [$15.63], Daisuke Matsuzaka [$14.61], Javier Vazquez [$15.18], Fausto Carmona [$7.06], James Shields [$9.69]
• 10-Brett Myers [$11.42], Ben Sheets [$11.85], Rich Hill [$16.56], Francisco Liriano [$22.14], Tim Lincecum [$24.86]
• 11-Matt Cain [$12.59]
• 12-Brad Penny [$2.32], Ted Lilly [$5.60], John Maine [$5.05], Yovani Gallardo [$10.21], A.J. Burnett [$13.01]
• 13-Chien-Ming Wang [$0.41], Chad Billingsley [$3.03], Jeff Francis [-$3.81], Joba Chamberlain [$7.55], Ian Snell [$3.32]
• 14-Clay Buchholz [$11.64], Jered Weaver [$8.74], Tim Hudson [$6.68], Pedro Martinez [$20.98], Kelvim Escobar [$8.63], Jeremy Bonderman [$6.31]
• 15-Oliver Perez [$0.54], Dustin McGowan [$13.93], Phil Hughes [$3.16], Adam Wainwright [$2.86]
• 16-Derek Lowe [$6.04]
• 17-Joe Blanton [$2.83]
• 18-Dontrelle Willis [-$7.43], Barry Zito [$1.00], Bronson Arroyo [$1.34], Rich Harden [$7.42]
• 19-Tom Gorzelanny [$0.22]
• 20-Randy Johnson [$6.86], Andy Pettitte [-$0.23]
• 21-Jeremy Guthrie [-$13.07], Zack Greinke [-$1.27], Matt Garza [$5.80]
• 22-Gil Meche [-$5.39]
• 23-Jon Lester [-$15.53], Tom Glavine [-$13.98]

Undrafted (And of Positive Value):

• Greg Maddux [$7.55]
• Hiroki Kuroda [$3.91]
• Kevin Slowey [$3.51]
• Chris Carpenter [$3.25]
• Mark Prior [$3.02]
• Kevin Correia [$1.61]
• Curt Schilling [$1.20]
• Shawn Hill [$0.81]
• Chuck James [$0.34]
• Josh Johnson [$0.06]
• Orlando Hernandez [$0.03]

Drops:

• After Round 2: $15.46
• After Round 5: $0.26
• After Round 10: $3.88
• After Round 14: $7.05
• After Round 15: $6.38

My Strategy:

• As I mentioned with outfielders, the larger the pool of players there is to select from, the greater the debate is about what the best strategy is.  For starting pitchers, I think Johan in the early second is pretty tempting, as is Peavy in the late second.  From there, I'll fill up on offense until Smoltz in the 7th; yes, he's old, but he's still a dominant pitcher [ask Tiger Woods]. I think Lincecum is possibly worth reaching for in the 9th; certainly ahead of Dice-K, but maybe not ahead of Vazquez.  Rich Hill is interesting if he's there in the 10th, and Liriano is too much of a question mark to take in that round, IMO.  I like A.J. Burnett in the 12th, and Buchholz is very interesting in the early 14th, although he'll likely be limited to 180 IP or less this season.  Despite an optimistic projection, I think Pedro is too risky for the 14th; take D-Mac there instead.  After that, I almost want to hold off until the last few rounds and take Maddux, Kuroda, and/or Slowey.  I'm generally a 5 SP/4 RP guy; if I had to create a realistic rotation, I'd try to base it off of Smoltz, Lincecum, McGowan, Maddux and Kuroda...and keep my eye out for the next Yovani Gallardo.

Prospects to Watch:

Please note that these are merely the $ values of the PECOTA weighted means; keep them in that context.  They do not necessarily represent the expected level of production at the major league level.  For example, Michael Main is a good prospect, but since he's only 18 and never pitched above Low-A, I doubt he'll make it to the bigs to turn that -$60.78 into reality for the Rangers.  Keeping these in perspective, Tim Lincecum's 2007 PECOTA weighted mean would earn him $14.45 in this system; Yovani Gallardo would have earned a -$4.10.

 

• Joba Chamberlain, NYY: $14.58.  By now, I reckon you've heard of him.  The only problem with Joba in the fantasy world is that he only pitched 112 innings last year, meaning that his odds of reaching anything above 150 are pretty limited if the Yankees are smart.  Then again, this is Joe Girardi, who showed us how he treats gifted young arms during his stint with the Marlins.  You'd have to think there would be intervention with someone as gifted as Chamberlain, though.

• Clay Buchholz, BOS: $0.87.  Yeah...Buchholz is pretty good.  He's got a dominant curveball and changeup, and his fastball is pretty darn good too.  He's got all the makings of an ace, its just a matter of the time in the rotation he gets this year.  Given the probably IP restrictions he'll face, Clay will have more value in 2009 and 2010 than he will in 2008.

• Ian Kennedy, NYY: -$1.97.   Kennedy pitched extremely well in the minors last year with 146.1 IP of 1.91 ERA ball.  He had a K/9 over 10, and a 3.26 K/BB. He's managed to do all of this with less than superb stuff for a righty; his fastball is of a high 80s/low 90s type, and his curve and change aren't spectacular.  He has great control, though, showing he knows how to get the most out of himself.  Kennedy makes for an interesting late round pick and possible waiver addition if he succeeds in the early part of the season.

• Greg Reynolds, COL: -$8.94.  Reynolds threw quite well at AA, notching a 1.42 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 50 IP.  His strikeout rates leave something to be desired, but he could make it to the show if he does well in AAA to start the season.  Don't expect him to post AA numbers in the bigs, though.

• Gio Gonzalez, OAK: -$8.95.  Gonzalez is a talented lefty, one of a great group of youngsters Billy Beane acquired this offseason.  He's mostly a curveball guy, with a fastball that touches the mid 90s.  He posted a ridiculous K rate last season [11.1 K/9], and seems to be outperforming what the scouts have called his season.  He should get the ball for the A's at some point this season, and he'll certainly be throwing in a great pitchers park.  I think he'll make for a solid add once he dominates AAA and makes it up to the bigs.

• Johnny Cueto, CIN: -$10.13. Cueto is one of the reasons why the Reds have the talent to compete right now.  Jumping from A+ to AAA over the season, he logged a 3.07 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP along the way.  His K rate was above 9.0 K/9, and he had a sick 5.0 K/BB rate to accompany it.  Dusty Baker said he might break the season in the Reds' rotation; if he does, I'm going to watch his first start and go from there.

• Adam Miller, CLE: -$10.22. Miller had a disastrous 2007 in Buffalo (AAA), missing major time because of elbow soreness. BP thinks he's a Tommy John in waiting; but he could work as a reliever to break him in.  Regardless, Miller is guilty until proven innocent to the fantasy community - this season, at least.

• Manny Parra, MIL: -$10.41. Parra threw a perfect game in his second AAA start; that's what kind of potential he has.  There were no red flags with his performance, but there are certainly concerns over whether or not he can be healthy for an entire season.  He's looked good this spring [1.00 ERA in 9 IP], and has a good chance to crack the rotation.  He's got pretty good stuff, perhaps enough to warrant a waiver add if he shows us something in the regular season.

• Scott Elbert, LAD: -$11.65.  Any guy with Cole Hamels as his top comp has something cooking.  For Elbert last season, it was surgery that limited his year to 14 IP at AA.  Given the depth of the Dodgers rotation, I'd imagine he'll get back on his feet in the minors this season.  In a few years, Elbert & Kershaw could be as dominant a pair of lefty teammates in the game.  Billingsley isn't too shabby, either; the Dodgers have got a group of great young pitchers.

• Fautino de los Santos, OAK: -$12.95. After posting a K/9 above 11.00, de los Santos became the real reason why the Swisher deal was a steal for Billy Beane.  He's still got a while to develop, as he only hit High A last year, but when he arrives, watch out.

Honorable Mentions:

• Max Scherzer, ARI: -$13.89
• Jair Jurrjens, ATL: -$15.62
• Homer Bailey, CIN: -$18.79
• Jacob McGee, TBR: -$20.37
• Michael Bowden, BOS: -$21.24
• Casey Weathers, COL: -$23.09
• Luke Hochevar, KCR: -$23.41
• Alan Horne, NYY: -$23.69
• Justin Masterson, BOS: -$23.96
• Eric Hurley, TEX: -$24.40
• Henry Sosa, SFG: -$25.08
• Radhames Liz, BAL: -$25.24
• Deolis Guerra, NYM: -$28.51
• Wade Davis, TBR: -$28.70
• Clayton Kershaw, LAD: -$30.24
• Franklin Morales, COL: -$31.55
• Chris Volstad, FLA: -$32.03
• Carlos Carrasco, PHI: -$35.72
• Jeremy Jeffress, MIL: -$36.31
• Brett Anderson, OAK: -$37.30
• Nick Adenhart, LAA: -$37.96
• Jordan Walden, LAA: -$38.48
• Netfali Feliz, TEX: -$39.32
• David Price, TBR: -$39.54
• Trevor Cahill, OAK: -$42.37
• Ross Detwiler, WAS: -$42.71
• Aaron Poreda, CWS: -$43.90
• Joe Savery, PHI: -$44.27
• Chorye Spoone, BAL: -$47.52
• Chris Tillman, SEA: -$52.20
• Rick Porcello, DET: -$52.27
• Jarrod Parker, ARI: -$55.62
• Michael Main, TEX: -$60.78

Putting It All Together: Shortstops

This chart will show you when or if a large drop in value will occur at each position.  When you see the red line hit $0.00 on the graph, that means you might as well wait until the end of a draft to take a player at the position.

The "Ah, to hell with it" Point [when you might as well wait to take a replacement level player]: Round 21.

Best HR Source: Hanley Ramirez [23]
Best R Source: Jimmy Rollins [119]
Best RBI Source: Miguel Tejada [86], Michael Young [86]
Best SB Source: Jose Reyes [66]
Best AVG Source: Hanley Ramirez [.308]

Average SS: .284 AVG, 16 HR, 89 R, 72 RBI, 18 SB

Stars [Number of categories in which a player is projected to be above the positional average]:

• Five Star Players: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins
• Four Star Players: Troy Tulowitzki [HR, R, RBI, AVG]
• Three Star Players: Jose Reyes [R, SB, AVG], Carlos Guillen [HR, RBI, AVG], Miguel Tejada [HR, RBI, AVG]
• Two Star Players: Derek Jeter [R, AVG], Michael Young [RBI, AVG], Rafael Furcal [R, SB], Jhonny Peralta [HR, RBI], Khalil Greene [HR, RBI]
• One Star Players: Edgar Renteria [AVG], J.J. Hardy [HR], Julio Lugo [SB], Stephen Drew [HR], Yunel Escobar [AVG], Ryan Theriot [SB], Juan Uribe [HR]
• Zero Star Players: Orlando Cabrera

ADP Data
Round-Player Selected [$ Value]

• 1-Hanley Ramirez [$36.69], Jose Reyes [$33.81], Jimmy Rollins [$30.41]
• 2-
• 3-
• 4-Derek Jeter [$19.69], Troy Tulowitzki [$16.74]
• 5-Carlos Guillen [$16.29]
• 6-
• 7-Miguel Tejada [$14.36], Rafael Furcal [$12.73], Michael Young [$16.58]
• 8-
• 9-Edgar Renteria [$6.29]
• 10-
• 11-Orlando Cabrera [$5.91], J.J. Hardy [$4.26]
• 12-
• 13-
• 14-
• 15-Jhonny Peralta [$6.36]
• 16-
• 17-Khalil Greene [$3.63]
• 18-
• 19-Stephen Drew [$1.00], Yunel Escobar [$0.65]
• 20-Felipe Lopez [-$6.74], Julio Lugo [$2.12]
• 21-
• 22-Ryan Theriot [-$1.94]
• 23-

Undrafted (And of Positive Value):

• None.

Drops:

• After Round 1: $17.00
• After Round 5: $3.11
• After Round 7: $10.22
• After Round 15: $2.73
• After Round 17: $1.51
• After Round 20: $2.12

My Strategy:

• Shortstop is one of the most predictable positions in drafts.  You know with 99% certainty that Ramirez, Reyes, and Rollins are going to be gone in the first 7 picks.  You know that Jeter, Tulo, and Guillen are gone in the 4th and 5th, followed by Tejada, Furcal & Young in the 7th.  From there, every player is worth less than $6.50.  I'm a skeptic on taking any of the Holy Trinity ahead of guys like Wright and Holliday, so I tend to end up with Derek Jeter in the 4th, Young in the 7th, or Peralta in the 15th.  At that point, you can say "Ah, to hell with it!" and take Yuniesky Betancourt with your last pick.  Greene can make some sense in the 17th if you build up on high average guys early on, though.

Prospects to Watch:

• Brent Lillibridge, ATL: Timetable: Maybe This Year.  Projected $ Value: $5.55. Blocked by Yunel Escobar, Lillibridge is likely to begin the year in AAA.  He could use some time there to fix his over aggressive swing that has led him to strike out far too often.  If he fixes that, he's a bonafide leadoff guy with outstanding speed, a little pop, and pretty good defense.  Once he finishes developing, he's a guy who will pop double digit home runs, steal about 30 bases, and hit for decent average.  If Chipper goes down with an injury (however unlikely that may be...), you could see Yunel moved to 3B and Lillibridge getting the gig at SS.  If you find yourself lacking there, Lillibridge will make a good addition when/if he gets the call.

• Chris Nelson, COL: Timetable: Not This Year.  Projected $ Value: $4.59. Nelson's projected value is, by BP's own admission, a mirage.  He raked at High A last year, but they think he'll end up being a utility guy at best.  Regardless, after hitting .289/.358/.503 with 19 HRs and 27 SBs in 600 PAs, if he turns in a solid few months to begin 2008, one would imagine the former ninth overall pick would get another look.

• Chin-Lung Hu, LAD: Timetable: Maybe This Year.  Projected $ Value: $1.73.  Hu flat out raked last year, hitting .329/.380/.508 in 356 AA PAs, then proceeded to hit .318/.337/.505 in 200 AAA PAs.  Most people think his power was a fluke, and if he returns to his pre-2007 self, those people will be right.  Hu may end up being one of those players who is more valuable in "real-life" than he will be in fantasy, as his Gold Glove caliber defense will be what carries him to the bigs.  He could make it this year if Furcal gets injured, but will otherwise probably be the opening day SS in 2009.

• Brandon Wood, LAA: Timetable: Maybe This Year.  Projected $ Value: $0.26.  I already discussed Wood on my discussion of 3B prospects here, so I wont regurgitate it here.  Long made short: Wood is more useful in fantasy at SS than he would be at 3B, so root for Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis to fail if you'd like to see a power hitting SS.

• Jed Lowrie, BOS: Timetable: Not This Year.  Projected $ Value: -$1.98. Looking at Lowrie's minor league stats, I swear I'm looking at Dustin Pedroia's clone.  Lowrie looks like the guy whose ceiling might be to hit 10 HRs and steal 10 bases while flirting with .300.  He'll have some value in our world, but I don't think it'll be significant.  With some thinking he needs to be moved away from SS, he blocked everywhere he could go: by Lowell at 3B, by Lugo at SS, and by Pedroia at 2B.  Best case scenario for Lowrie is an injury to any of those guys; otherwise, he's 2009 at best.

• Reid Brignac, TBR: Timetable: Not This Year. Projected $ Value: -$4.18. Brignac's star has fallen, but it's hard to have it rise after hitting .326/.382/.557 in High A.  He still profiles as a guy who can pop 20 and swipe 10, something we'd take any day of the week in the fantasy world.  He's going to play at AAA in 2008, and could be part of an amazing 2009 Rays team.  You'll want to read the starting pitchers post that should be coming in a few days to look at why that team will be so special (hint...David Price).

• Elvis Andrus, TEX: Timetable: Not This Year.  Projected $ Value: -$9.97.  It seems like we've been hearing about how toolsy this guy is for a decade.  The King was sent to Texas in the Teixeira deal, and did pretty well in High A last year [.300/.369/.373].  Although Baseball America says he'll develop 10-20 HR power, I'm a skeptic - he's never slugged .400 once in 3 years in the minors.  Then again, he is going to open in AA as a 19 year old, so the jury may still be out.  Regardless, he'll be a basestealer when he finally reaches the bigs.

• Mike Moustakas, KCR: Timetable: Not This Year.  Projected $ Value: -$17.68. Okay, I firmly admit this: I had to learn how to pronounce this guys' name [Moose Tacos...].  Projected to be a guy who'll have to switch positions before reaching the bigs, Moose will be a hitter, for sure.  BP thinks he'll develop in the mold of Chase Utley - something that would be just fine with us fantasy players.  The Royals look to have another piece to their long term puzzle - whether or not they can put the pieces together in time to compete for a division title before the pieces hit free agency remains to be seen.

• Carlos Triunfel, SEA: Timetable: Not This Year.  Projected $ Value: -$26.27.  A child of the 90's, Triunfel hit .288 in 208 ABs in High A ball as a 17 year old.  He lacks power, but may develop that as his body grows with age. Triunfel doesn't exactly have good speed, either.  Like Moose Tacos, he's likely to have to switch positions before reaching the bigs.  Seeing a 17 year old hit .288 in High A ball is an encouraging indication of his potential, though.

Putting It All Together: 3rd Basemen

This chart will show you when or if a large drop in value will occur at each position.  When you see the red line hit $0.00 on the graph, that means you might as well wait until the end of a draft to take a player at the position.

The "Ah, to hell with it" Point [when you might as well wait to take a replacement level player]: Round 22.

Best HR Source: Alex Rodriguez [43]
Best R Source: Alex Rodriguez [123]
Best RBI Source: Alex Rodriguez [128]
Best SB Source: Chone Figgins [41]
Best AVG Source: Miguel Cabrera [.321]

Average 3B: .288 AVG, 25 HR, 86 R, 90 RBI, 10 SB

Stars [Number of categories in which a player is projected to be above the positional average]:

• Five Star Players: Alex Rodriguez [HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG], David Wright [HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG], Ryan Braun [HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG]
• Four Star Players: Miguel Cabrera [HR, R, RBI, AVG]
• Three Star Players: Aramis Ramirez [HR, RBI, AVG], Garrett Atkins [R, RBI, AVG]
• Two Star Players: Ryan Zimmerman [R, RBI], Chone Figgins [R, SB], Adrian Beltre [HR, RBI], Josh Fields [HR, SB]
• One Star Players: Chipper Jones [AVG], Alex Gordon [SB], Troy Glaus [HR], Akinori Iwamura [SB], Yunel Escobar [AVG], Ryan Freel [SB], Esteban German [SB]
• Zero Star Players: Edwin Encarnacion, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Reynolds, Evan Longoria, Hank Blalock, Mike Lowell, Ty Wigginton, Aubrey Huff, Andy LaRoche, Scott Rolen, Casey Blake, Eric Chavez, Melvin Mora, Mike Lamb, Jose Bautista, Pedro Feliz, Mark DeRosa, Joe Crede, Nomar Garciaparra

ADP Data
Round-Player Selected [$ Value]

• 1-Alex Rodriguez [$43.54], David Wright [$35.85], Miguel Cabrera [$35.01]
• 2-Ryan Braun [$32.34]
• 3-Aramis Ramirez [$19.18]
• 4-
• 5-Garrett Atkins [$17.50], Chone Figgins [$10.39]
• 6-Chipper Jones [$16.38]
• 7-
• 8-Ryan Zimmerman [$15.60]
• 9-
• 10-Adrian Beltre [$10.16]
• 11-
• 12-Mike Lowell [$2.51], Alex Gordon [$2.91]
• 13-
• 14-
• 15-Josh Fields [$4.46]
• 16-Edwin Encarnacion [$8.99]
• 17-Troy Glaus [$0.87]
• 18-
• 19-Yunel Escobar [-$3.34]
• 20-Ty Wigginton [$1.00], Evan Longoria [$4.24], Hank Blalock [$3.09]
• 21-Kevin Kouzmanoff [$7.48]
• 22-Scott Rolen [-$3.54]
• 23-

Undrafted (And of Positive Value):

• Mark Reynolds [$5.67]

Drops:

• After Round 1: $11.20
• After Round 2: $13.17
• After Round 3: $1.68
• After Round 5: $1.11
• After Round 6: $0.78
• After Round 8: $5.44
• After Round 10: $1.17
• After Round 17: $1.51
• After Round 21: $1.81

My Strategy:

• It all depends on where you're drafting.  If you're drafting in the first part of round one, one of A-Rod or Wright makes a lot of sense.  If you're drafting in the later part of round one, it makes sense to pass on a 3B and take Braun in the early second.  From there, have fun falling off the cliff.  Zimmerman is a guy I like in the 8th; from there, I'd give Kouzmanoff a look in the 21st, before taking Mark Reynolds with my last pick.  3B is one of those positions that the market is geared towards, making it harder to find bargains.

Prospects to Watch:

• Evan Longoria, TBR: Timetable: Probably This Year. Projected $ Value: $7.66.  Yeah, no duh, Mr. Fantasy Genius.  Chances are you've heard of Evan, and already grown tired of jokes involving Tony Parker's wife.  The Rays [it's still weird to call them that] are saying that Longoria has to earn his starting gig, but seeing as Willy Aybar is his competition, I think Evan will be manning the hot corner.  Although Dierkes' projections has Longoria worth $4.24 in IPDS, PECOTA would have him worth $7.66.  I wouldn't bank on Longoria as your #1 3B, but you could do far worse with the CI or UT spot.   

• Andy LaRoche, LAD: Timetable: Probably This Year. Projected $ Value: $0.67. By now, you've heard that Andy broke his thumb and will miss 8-10 weeks, putting his best case scenario ETA at early May.  After hitting .322/.400/.550 in his first attempt at AAA in 2006, follow by .309/.399/.589 in his second attempt at AAA in 2007, LaRoche has nothing left to prove there.  Although he struggled in 115 PAs with the Dodgers last year [.226/.365/.312], LaRoche is a stud in the making.  You'd have to think LaRoche will get the starting gig once he's done rehabbing.  At that point, he could make for a solid early May waiver addition if you're lacking at 3B. 
  

• Brandon Wood, LAA: Timetable: Maybe This Year. Projected $ Value: -$2.79. After hitting 43 dingers in 2005, Wood's stock has fallen a bit after "disappointing" 2006 and 2007 campaigns.  Regardless, he's still got the potential to be a star in the league.  He can play SS and 3B, and may split time at the position.  He might need a little more time at AAA, but could make it to the bigs sooner than later.  Wood is a potential threat on the basepaths, something quite valuable in our world.
  

• Neil Walker, PIT: Timetable: Maybe This Year. Projected $ Value: -$4.07. With Jose Bautista likely to man the hot corner for the Bucs, there won't be too much in Walker's way this year.  He could use some time in AAA, after only logging 64 ABs there last season with a .203/.261/.250 line.  He hasn't shown much slugging, topping out at .462 in AA last year.  I'd say he profiles as a 20 HR/10 SB guy, which obviously has pretty good value.  We'll probably get a look at him in the bigs this year, but I wouldn't use a waiver on him unless he shows better slugging at AAA Indy.

• Chase Headley, SDP: Timetable: Probably This Year. Projected $ Value: -$13.94.  BP's Projected Playing Time charts have Headley at 389 PAs, so it looks like we'll get a decent look at him this year.  After hitting .330/.437/.580 at AA, he's shown his potential.  He's never going to be a threat on the basepaths, but should be able to compensate with power numbers consistent with that of a middle of the lineup hitter.  Since he skipped AAA and is heading to power-killing PETCO, I'm a skeptic for now, but Headley's turned heads before.       
  

• Chris Davis, TEX: Timetable: Not This Year. Projected $ Value: -$14.08.  Between A and AA last year, Davis hit 36 dingers, which shows just what kind of power he possesses.  He wasn't exactly a slouch with AVG either, hitting .295 between the two levels. He's still at least a year away from MLB, but seems like he'll be a perfect fit for Arlington's generous hitting dimensions.       
  

• Wes Hodges, CLE: Timetable: Not This Year. Projected $ Value: -$17.88.  Thanks to Andy Marte's disappointment, Hodges has an opportunity to be the Tribe's future 3rd Baseman.  Baseball America notes that when he broke a bone in his wrist as a high school senior, he taught himself to hit left-handed - and proceeded to hit .430.  Hodges has health concerns, but will get an opportunity to overcome them in AA this year.  He may be competing for a job by next spring.

• Angel Villalona, SFG: Timetable: Not This Year. Projected $ Value: -$25.08.  In rookie ball, Villalona hit a respectable .285/.344/.450...as a sixteen year old.  I'm 23, and couldn't hit .285 in Tee-Ball.  BP says that "the sky is the limit like it's been for no other prospect perhaps since Alex Rodriguez was drafted."  If that doesn't speak to Villalona's potential, I don't know what does.  He's already massive - 6'3", 200, which means he'll probably be a first baseman by the time he reaches the bigs.  Regardless, he should hit A ball this year as a 17 year old.  Although his big league ETA is still a few years away, get a look at him if you can - he's the future of the game.

• Josh Vitters, CHC: Timetable: Not This Year. Projected $ Value: -$31.88.  The 1st round pick of the Cubs in 2007, Vitters has only logged 51 ABs in the minors, but time is on his side.  He'll start off in A ball this year, but with his power and ability to hit for average, he might enter the conversation for the Cubs as soon as the middle of 2009.  Vitters wont be a basestealer, but should compensate with his bat.

Putting It All Together: 2nd Basemen

This chart will show you when or if a large drop in value will occur at each position.  When you see the red line hit $0.00 on the graph, that means you might as well wait until the end of a draft to take a player at the position.

The "Ah, to hell with it" Point [when you might as well wait to take a replacement level player]: Round 23.

Best HR Source: Chase Utley [27], Dan Uggla [27]
Best R Source: Chase Utley [107]
Best RBI Source: Chase Utley [104]
Best SB Source: Brian Roberts [36]
Best AVG Source: Placido Polanco [.312]

Average 2nd Baseman: .284 AVG, 15 HR, 83 R, 69 RBI, 12 SB

Stars [Number of categories in which a player is projected to be above the positional average]

Five Star Players: None.

Four Star Players: Chase Utley [HR, R, RBI, AVG], Robinson Cano [HR, R, RBI, AVG], Brandon Phillips [HR, R, RBI, SB], B.J. Upton [HR, R, RBI, SB]

Three Star Players: Brian Roberts [R, SB, AVG], Dan Uggla [HR, R, RBI], Kelly Johnson [HR, R, RBI], Ian Kinsler [HR, R, SB], Rickie Weeks [HR, R, SB]

Two Star Players: Placido Polanco [R, AVG], Dustin Pedroia [R, AVG], Freddy Sanchez [RBI, AVG], Jeff Kent [HR, RBI], Ty Wigginton [HR, RBI], Luis Castillo [SB, AVG]

One Star Players: Howie Kendrick [AVG], Orlando Hudson [AVG], Mark Ellis [HR], Asdrubal Cabrera [SB], Yunel Escobar [AVG], Kaz Matsui [SB], Ryan Theriot [SB], Felipe Lopez [SB], Mark Grudzielanek [AVG], Esteban German [SB], Erick Aybar [SB]

Zero Star Players: Aaron Hill, Tadahito Iguchi, Mark DeRosa, Ronnie Belliard, Ray Durham, Brendan Harris, Matt Antonelli, Kevin Frandsen

Round-Player Selected [$ Value]
1-Chase Utley [$30.22]
2-Brandon Phillips [$17.22], B.J. Upton [$17.01]
3-Brian Roberts [$18.43]
4-
5-
6-Robinson Cano [$18.02], Ian Kinsler [$10.42]
7-
8-
9-Dan Uggla [$11.34]
10-Rickie Weeks [$6.89], Howie Kendrick [$6.68]
11-
12-Jeff Kent [$5.57]
13-
14-Placido Polanco [$8.80]
15-Kelly Johnson [$11.02], Dustin Pedroia [$7.26]
16-Orlando Hudson [$4.67]
17-Aaron Hill [$2.57], Kaz Matsui [$0.14]
18-
19-Yunel Escobar [$0.42]
20-Ty Wigginton [$4.76], Felipe Lopez [-$6.97]
21-
22-Freddy Sanchez [$6.38], Ryan Theriot [-$2.17]
23-

Undrafted [And of Positive Value]:

• Mark Ellis [$2.40]
• Luis Castillo [$1.17]
• Asdrubal Cabrera [$1.00]

Drops:

• After Round 1: $11.79
• After Round 3: $0.41
• After Round 6: $6.68
• After Round 9: $0.32
• After Round 15: $4.64
• After Round 22: $3.98

My Strategy:

• Chutley makes sense if you have a pick later in the first round.  He misses becoming the only 5 star 2B by merely 1 steal.  I'm really not that high on Brandon Phillips or B.J. Upton.  Don't get me wrong, they have the upside to produce at a high level, but I don't like drafting for players who "might" produce at a high level in the 2nd round.  If I don't nab Chutley in the first, I look for Cano in the 6th or 7th, then to Johnson in the 15th or so.  Wiggy is good value in the 20th, as is Sanchez in the 22nd.

Prospects to Watch:

• Matt Antonelli, SDP: Timetable: Maybe this year. Antonelli is almost it in terms of 2B prospects this year.  Block at 3B by Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley, Antonelli moved to second base last year.  Since he hasn't logged any at bats at AAA, and with Tadahito Iguchi signed to a one year contract, Antonelli will likely start out in the high minors this season.  Regardless, after jacking 21, swiping 28, and hitting .307 across A and AA last season, there is a lot to like about Antonelli.  Unfortunately, PETCO isn't exactly a hitters paradise and will probably result in reducing Antonelli's slugging potential.  If he gets regular playing time, he's easily a starting fantasy 2B/MI with upside for true impact at a top-heavy position.  If Iguchi struggles while Antonelli rakes at AAA Portland, look for him to get the call.            

          Projected $ Value: $2.65

Putting It All Together: 1st Basemen

This chart will show you when or if a large drop in value will occur at each position.  When you see the red line hit $0.00 on the graph, that means you might as well wait until the end of a draft to take a player at the position.

The "Ah, to hell with it" Point [when you might as well wait to take a replacement level player]: Round 13.

Best HR Source: Ryan Howard [48]
Best R Source: Albert Pujols [113]
Best RBI Source: Ryan Howard [131]
Best SB Source: Alex Gordon [16]
Best AVG Source: Albert Pujols [.327]

Average 1st Baseman: .284 AVG, 26 HR, 84 R, 91 RBI, 4 SB

Stars [Number of categories in which a player is projected to be above the positional average]

Five Star Players: Albert Pujols [HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG], Lance Berkman [HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG]

Four Star Players: Mark Teixeira [HR, R, RBI, AVG], Prince Fielder [HR, R, RBI, AVG], Adrian Gonzalez [HR, R, RBI, AVG]

Three Star Players: Derrek Lee [R, SB, AVG], Carlos Guillen [R, SB, AVG], Ryan Howard [HR, R, RBI]

Two Star Players: Todd Helton [R, AVG], Victor Martinez [RBI, AVG], Justin Morneau [HR, RBI], Paul Konerko [HR, RBI], Nick Swisher [HR, R]

One Star Players: James Loney [AVG], Kevin Youkilis [R], Alex Gordon [SB], Conor Jackson [AVG], Joey Votto [SB], Dmitri Young [AVG], Brad Wilkerson [SB], Ross Gload [AVG], Dan Ortmeier [SB]

Zero Star Players: Carlos Delgado, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Garko, Ty Wigginton, Mike Jacobs, Aubrey Huff, Daric Barton, Casey Kotchman, Richie Sexson, Mike Lamb, Lyle Overbay, Marcus Thames, Jason Giambi, Nick Johnson, Kevin Millar, Matt Stairs, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ben Broussard, Jeff Baker, Nomar Garciaparra

Round-Player Selected [$ Value]
1-Albert Pujols [$37.89], Ryan Howard [$32.40]
2-Prince Fielder [$27.10], Mark Teixeira [$24.59]
3-Lance Berkman [$20.89], Victor Martinez [$10.70]
4-Justin Morneau [$16.19], Derrek Lee [$17.47]
5-Carlos Guillen [$12.30], Carlos Pena [$14.76]
6-
7-Adrian Gonzalez [$13.85]
8-Paul Konerko [$11.32], Nick Swisher [$9.91]
9-
10-Todd Helton [$12.38]
11-James Loney [$4.80]
12-Carlos Delgado [$6.24], Alex Gordon [$2.91]
13-Jarrod Saltalamacchia [-$11.67]
14-
15-Kevin Youkilis [$4.10]
16-Ryan Garko [$2.16]
17-
18-
19-
20-Ty Wigginton [$1.00]
21-
22-
23-Joey Votto [$1.17]

Undrafted [And of Positive Value]:

• Adam LaRoche [$4.32]
• Conor Jackson [$1.96]
  

Drops:
After Round 1: $10.79
After Round 2: $6.21
After Round 3: $3.42
After Round 5: $3.62
After Round 7: 1.47
After Round 10: 6.13
After Round 12: 1.93

My strategy: I'm avoiding Pujols like the plague.  The last projections Dierkes did had him at $37.89 in my valuation system, but after hearing the description of Pujols' elbow, I'm placing him on my "do not draft" list.  From there, I find a few decent values [Fielder, Berkman, Lee], but I tend to hold off until its time to take Todd Helton.  Every first baseman between rounds 5 and 9 are of comparable value to Helt.  No, he's not going to hit 40 HRs, but he's a solid 1B elsewhere.  If he goes off the board before I can get him, I just hold out and wait for Conor Jackson or LaRoche.

Prospects to Watch:

Projected $ Values are only if given a full time job this year; using PECOTA projections.

• Joey Votto, CIN: Timetable: Probably This Year. Projected $ Value: $13.48. In most organizations where a choice must be made between a 24 year old who hit .294/.381/.478 at AAA and a 37 year Scott Hatteberg, the youngster would get the call.  But...this is an organization managed by Dusty Baker.  Don't get me wrong; Hatteberg is still useful [.310/.394/.474 in 361 ABs last season], but with a team like the Reds, Hatteberg's best use is on the trading block.  Votto is a valuable commodity, a 1B who can steal a few bases and threaten a 20/20 season.  If Dusty Baker wakes up and gives Votto the PT, he's worth a high waiver priority.  But...don't hold your breath.

• Steven Pearce, PIT: Timetable: Probably This Year. Projected $ Value: $0.31. Since the Pirates have LaRoche at 1B, they moved Pearce to RF late in his season.  BP currently projects him to get 227 PAs between 1B, LF, RF, and pinch hitting, rendering him useless to us with that PT projection.  He came up to the bigs for 23 games at the end of last season, hit for average and not much else.  Don't be fooled; Pearce can rake.  In 1247 Minor league ABs, he hit .302/.375/.551.  He stole 16 bases across four levels of pro ball last season, and could flirt with double digits given the PT. I'll be watching closely for a breakout.                     
  

• Chris Carter, OAK: Timetable: Not this year. Projected $ Value: -$11.35.  He went from OAK to ARI (Carlos Quentin deal), then from ARI to OAK (Dan Haren deal).  He's pretty terrible defensively, which means nothing in our world, but could affect his timetable.  With Daric Barton at 1B, Carter will be in the minors for the season.  However, as Carter is a much better slugger than Barton, I'd think he might be in the conversation for a big league job in 2009.                     
  

• Lars Anderson, BOS: Timetable: Not this year. Projected $ Value: -$13.59.  With Big Papi & Youk pretty set in for the next year, Anderson is probably blocked for now.  One could see Youk moving to third to create room for Lars at 1B, but Lowell is signed through 2010 to man the hot corner.  Anderson could use more time in the minors, just hitting High A for 10 games last season.  He'll be a solid middle of the lineup 1B with no speed, but we'll have to wait at least a year for him to be relevant fantasy wise.         
  

• Chris Marrero, WAS: Timetable: Probably Not This Year. Projected $ Value: -$14.78. The Nats' have a logjam at 1B with Dmitri Young and Nick "OBP Jesus" Johnson.  Marrero also plays OF, but many think he's too slow to stay there, so he's being moved to 1B.  He's not even 20 yet, but did pretty well against Low A pitching [.293/.337/.545 in 222 ABs].  Some say he'll move up to Double A, some say he'll go back to High A, where he struggled last year.  Regardless, he's a classic middle of the order, no speed 1B in training.

Putting It All Together: Catcher

These posts will focus on giving you everything you need to know about a position this season.  This chart will show you when or if a large drop in value will occur at each position.  When you see the red line hit $0.00 on the graph, that means you might as well wait until the end of a draft to take a player at the position.

The "Ah, to hell with it" Point [when you might as well wait to take a replacement level player]: Round 20.

Best HR Source: Brian McCann [20], Victor Martinez [20]
Best R Source: Russell Martin [82]
Best RBI Source: Victor Martinez [93]
Best SB Source: Russell Martin [15]
Best AVG Source: Joe Mauer [.309]

Average Catcher: 114 H in 418 AB [.273], 13 HR, 55 R, 60 RBI, 3 SB

Stars [Number of categories in which a player is projected to be above the positional average]

Five Star Players: Russell Martin [HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG]

Four Star Players: Victor Martinez [HR, R, RBI, AVG], Joe Mauer [R, RBI, SB, AVG], Brian McCann [HR, R, RBI, AVG], Jorge Posada [HR, R, RBI, AVG], Geovany Soto [HR, R, RBI, AVG], Kenji Johjima [HR, R, RBI, AVG]

Three Star Players: Bengie Molina [HR, RBI, AVG], Jason Varitek [HR, R, RBI]

Two Star Players: J.R. Towles [R, SB], A.J. Pierzynski [HR, R], Ramon Hernandez [HR, RBI], Ryan Doumit [HR, AVG], Mike Napoli [HR, SB], Brayan Pena [SB, AVG]

One Star Players: Carlos Ruiz [SB], Ivan Rodriguez [SB], Jarrod Saltalamacchia [HR], Paul Lo Duca [AVG], Miguel Montero [HR], Johnny Estrada [AVG], John Buck [HR], Dioner Navarro [SB], Josh Bard [AVG], Yorvit Torrealba [SB], Dave Ross [HR], Jason Kendall [SB], Miguel Olivo [SB], Javy Lopez [AVG], Mike Rivera [SB], Gerald Laird [SB], Mike Redmond [AVG], J.R. House [AVG], Brad Ausmus [SB]

Zero Star Players: Ronny Paulino, Kurt Suzuki, Chris Iannetta, Chris Snyder, Gregg Zaun, Michael Barrett, Yadier Molina, Ramon Castro, Brian Schneider, Javier Valentin, Jesus Flores, Kelly Shoppach, Rod Barajas, Chris Coste, Curtis Thigpen, Mike Rabelo, Eric Munson, Eliezer Alfonzo, Jeff Clement, Jeff Mathis, Jose Molina, Rob Bowen, Toby Hall, Damian Miller, Jamie Burke, Matt Treanor, Jason LaRue    Henry Blanco, Doug Mirabelli, Gary Bennett, Vance Wilson

Round-Player Selected [$ Value]
1-
2-
3-Victor Martinez [$29.21], Russell Martin [$26.83]
4-
5-Brian McCann [$23.14]
6-Joe Mauer [$25.32]
7-
8-Jorge Posada [$22.47]
9-
10-
11-Kenji Johjima [$14.21]
12-
13-Jarrod Saltalamacchia [$6.85]
14-Geovany Soto [$15.40]
15-Ivan Rodriguez [$7.96]
16-
17-J.R. Towles [$13.00]:
18-
19-Bengie Molina [$10.27], A.J. Pierzynski [$9.06]
20-Jason Varitek [$7.74]
21-Ramon Hernandez [$7.93]
22-Paul Lo Duca [$4.80]
23-Mike Napoli [$5.68]

Undrafted:

• Ronny Paulino [$6.81]
• Johnny Estrada [$1.86]
• Yadier Molina [-$1.17]
• John Buck [$1.00]
• Josh Bard [-$0.01]
• Carlos Ruiz [$8.64]
• Ryan Doumit [$7.67]
• Kurt Suzuki [$2.96]
• Rod Barajas [-$4.73]

Drops:
After Round 3-$3.89
After Round 6-$2.85
After Round 8-$7.07
After Round 14-$2.40
After Round 17-$2.73
After Round 19-$1.63

My strategy:
Take V-Mart or R-Mart [in that order] in the 3rd, then take Soto in the 14th, Towlie in the 17th, or wait until the end of the draft and take Carlos Ruiz, Ronny Paulino, or Ryan Doumit.  Dioner Navarro is intriguing, but I'm still a skeptic.  Bottom line: don't get caught with a Varitek/Lo Duca tandem at this position.

Prospects to Watch:

Projected $ Values are only if Given a full time job this year; using PECOTA projections.

• Geovany Soto, CHC: Timetable: Definitely This Year. Projected $ Value: $15.69. Before last season, Soto was ranked as the #17 prospect in the Cubs' system.  This year, he's #2 [Josh Vitters is #1]. Hitting .353/.424./.652 over 385 ABs at AAA will do that.  He didn't relent in the bigs, hitting .389/.433/.667 over 18 games with the Cubs.  The only thing he's lacking is basestealing ability, but with his power from the C spot, that's just nitpicking.  Pairing Soto with Mauer forms a pretty dominant, balanced catching tandem.

• J.R. Towles, HOU: Timetable: Definitely This year.  Projected $ Value: $13.07. Towlie should provide double digit homers and steals from behind the dish, which is quite valuable.  The hamstring and the lack of ABs above AA are cause for concern, but his weighted mean suggests he's still a better option than someone you know is going to suck, like Jason Varitek.

• Jeff Clement, SEA: Timetable: Maybe this year. Projected $ Value: $10.29. He's got some pop, slugging .497 at AAA last year.  His ability to hit for average is suspect, though, and he won't steal any bases.  He may partner with Kenji Johjima in the bigs, so don't build a team around him this season - but with Johj entering the last year of his contract, next year may be different.  If an Johj is injured, Clement is good bet for some power off of your waiver wire.

• Matt Wieters, BAL: Timetable: Not this year. Projected $ Value: $10.28. This guy is a future double digit HR/SB catcher, but without pro experience and Ramon Hernandez blocking him, he's probably not going to make it this year.  After getting a record $6M bonus, he's one expensive minor leaguer.  He apparently touched 96 MPH on the gun as a closer at Georgia Tech; maybe the Orioles should let him close in place of Sherrill.            
  

• Hank Conger, LAA: Timetable: Not this year. Projected $ Value: $4.56. Only 20 years old, Hank mashes leftys but comes up a little short against rightys.  With his age and his lack of experience above Low A, he'll be in the minors this year.            
  

• Taylor Teagarden, TEX: Timetable: Not this year. Projected $ Value: $1.29. A Tommy John survivor, Teagarden has pretty good power in his bat.  BP says he'd hit in the low .200's if he played in the bigs now, so I'd imagine he's got some time in the minors left.  With Salty in front of him, Teagarden won't be a factor for us this season.  
  

• Bryan Anderson, STL: Timetable: Not this year. Projected $ Value: $1.00. Entering his age 21 season, he's a young one.  BP thinks he'll end up a Paul Lo Duca/A.J. Pierzynski type of player, both of whom have positive value in our world.  He's definitely going to hit for average, but not much else.  With Yady's extension and Anderson's lack of experience in the upper minors, he'll be in AAA this year.