Nine Bo Jacksons

Jay Bruce To Be Called Up "Soon"

"Hal McCoy, of the Dayton Daily News, reports Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker said OF Jay Bruce will be recalled soon."

I skimmed the Dayton Daily News site, but couldn't find the article.  Regardless, it seems like its time to add the #1 prospect in baseball.  Brandon Funston reported that he was only 6% owned, so he's likely to be out there in some leagues, though he was stashed in all of mine.

What is there not to like about Bruce?  Baseball America states that he strikes out a lot, but that they're a fair trade off for what he does when he actually hits the ball with the bat.  He can play CF, though he's more fit for RF.  Neither of these "flaws" should affect too many fantasy leagues.  Looking at his past performance, the only "bad" season he had was way back in 2005 in Rookie Ball, when an 18 year old Bruce hit .266/.341/.484 in 192 AB.  Other than that, I really can't find any red flags in his past performance.

What should we expect from him this season?  If he gets 450 PA, BP's weighted mean projections would put him at a .270 AVG, 21 HR, 63 R, 68 RBI, and 8 SB.  Their 90th percentile projection would put him at a .298 AVG, 27 HR, 78 R, 80 RBI, and 8 SB.  Bruce probably won't hit .300 right away, but he should be a solid contributor everywhere else.  He was even 7-for-7 in steal attempts at AAA, an encouraging sign that he could produce double digit steals this season.

Bruce should be a game-changer.  I wouldn't go trading Lance Berkman for him, but do what you have to get a hold of him.

Prospect: Nick Adenhart

Angels P Nick Adenhart got the call up from AAA to start last nights game vs. Oakland.  He was ranked as the Angels' #2 prospect by Baseball America, only behind Brandon Wood.  Jim Callis of Baseball America had him ranked as baseball's #30 prospect, while Kevin Goldstein of BP had him as #27.  Looking at his profile in Baseball America, Adenhart's arsenal consists of a fastball that sits at 91-92 MPH but touches 94.  He has a slider that hits at 75-77 MPH, and a good changeup as his third pitch.  His breaking ball is still a work in progress, though.

Adenhart's numbers before this season were not all that impressive.  In 153 IP at AA last year, he had a 3.65 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP and a 6.82 K/9 and a 1.78 K/BB.  The walks were truly the problem, as his 3.82 BB/9 was an indication that his command failed him at times; league average in the 2007 Texas League was 3.47.  This year at AAA, he was off to a torrid start.  His 31 IP of 0.87 ERA and 1.06 WHIP earned him a MiLB value of $23.88 in my last batch of valuations.  His walk rate actually increased in AAA, though, logging a 4.35 BB/9.  It was his H/9 that carried him, logging a 5.23 H/9 when the league average has been 9.71.  I couldn't find BABIP data for AAA, but the very low H/9 makes me think that he had a freakishly low BABIP thus far this year.

After getting the call up, he was rocked by the Oakland A's.  In 2.0 IP, he gave up 5 ER, walking 5 and striking out 0.  To his defense, the A's are the #2 AL team in terms of runs scored.  Regardless, it was not exactly a great sign for Adenhart.

So, is he worth a waiver claim?  I have the #1 waiver priority in my AL-Only league, and I'm sitting this one out.  Before I'll consider Adenhart a legitimate big league starter, I'll need to see some signs of life from him, whether it is a lowered walk rate or increased strikeout rate.  With Garland, Weaver, Santana and Saunders looking like they'll be rotation mainstays, I think Adenhart will be shipped back to AAA once John Lackey returns in 2 weeks.  Caution is urged.

Max Scherzer Gets the Call

This is a big one.  Max Scherzer is getting the call up to the bigs.  It looks like he'll go into the bullpen, though he may start eventually.  Regardless, this guy will put up ridiculous strikeout numbers wherever he's pitching.  With Edgar Gonzalez as the current #5 starter, I have a feeling Scherzer will force his way into the rotation sooner than later.  He's worth a waiver claim, regardless of where your priority is.

Just a review of his numbers at AAA so far: 23 IP, 1.17 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 38 K, 3 BB.  That's a 14.87 K/9 and a 12.67 K/BB.  Tim Lincecum's numbers at AAA last year were 31 IP, 0.29 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 46 K, 11 BB.  Those accounted to a 13.35 K/9 and a 4.18 K/BB.  I think the comparison is apt; expect dominance from Scherzer.

Evan Longoria Gets the Call

It looks like Willy Aybar will hit the DL; the real story is that Evan Longoria has gotten the call up.  He will start Saturday against the Baltimore Orioles and Daniel Cabrera.

Longoria is likely to stick around now.   He's only missed 10 games of the MLB season, so his value should still be pretty good.  His weighted mean from BP would put him at $6.41 in Mixed leagues and at $13.22 in AL Only leagues.  Looking at his 90th percentile projection, that would put him at an elite level in any format.  The only knock on him is that 7 steals seems to be his ceiling.  Regardless, it's going to be between him and Jay Bruce for the offensive fantasy ROY, and Longoria's getting a great head start.  He's worth an add in every format, although he was probably stashed away in many leagues.

Prospect: Evan Longoria

As expected, Rays' 3B Evan Longoria was sent to AAA to start the season.  This is solely being done to delay Longoria's arbitration clock, a la Jay Bruce.  Longoria hit .262/.407/.595 with 3 HRs and 2 SBs in 42 spring training ABs.  I think the move to AAA actually may help him; he hit .269/.398/.490 there in limited duty last season.  Those are good numbers, but the AVG and SLG are well below the numbers he put up elsewhere.  He'll probably be called up in early to mid May, but the move knocks a good chunk off of his value for now.  Unlike an injured player, Longoria can't be placed on the DL slot on your roster - if his owners want to keep him, they have to kill an active spot for at least a month.  If I owned him (which I don't), I'd cut him for now, keep an eye on his minor league development, and reassess the situation in late April.  He went in the 8th round of my AL-Only league and the 15th of my mixed league, so those picks are pretty much a waste for at least the first month of the season.

Willy Aybar is going to be the opening day 3B.  He really won't be anything special in mixed leagues, as he won't do anything near an average level.  In AL-Only leagues, he's worth an add if you are in need of a CI who will at least get the PT.  I don't think he'll do much to make the Rays think he's a better option than Longoria come May.

Prospect: Cameron Maybin

After hitting .190 in Spring Training, Marlins CF Cameron Maybin was sent to AA to start the season.  Many (myself included) thought that the Marlins would rush him to the majors, as they've tended to do in the past.  I'm very impressed that they're sending him to the minors, where he'll get some much needed development.  After being jerked around in Detroit's organization last year, it was evident during his stint in the bigs and in spring training this season that he's flat out over his head.  Although this makes him useless in the fantasy world for right now, its best for his long term development.  He went in the 11th round of my NL-Only league and the 20th of my mixed league, so this is certainly relevant to a lot of owners.

It looks like Cody Ross and Alejandro De Aza will duke it out for the gig in CF.  De Aza has hit .327/.382/.653 with 3 HRs and 2 SBs in 48 Spring ABs.  Ross has hit .257/.350/.400 in 35 ABs.  De Aza wowed the Marlins last season in spring training enough to win the CF job to start the season, and he's certainly hitting well enough to make them think about it again.  Ross, on the other hand, hit .335/.411/.653 in limited big league duty last season.  I think Ross would be a better fantasy option, as he flashes legitimate 20+ HR power and an ability to hit for average (although .335 is not going to happen again).  De Aza will steal a few bases, but his lack of power and inability to hit for average should severely hurt his value.  The Marlins would be better served sending De Aza to AAA, which he skipped in the move from AA to the bigs.  I could see Ross worth between $5 and $7 in mixed leagues if he gets the gig; De Aza between $2 and $4.  We'll have to wait and see who gets the gig before we know for certain, though.

Prospect: Carlos Gomez

Phil Miller of the St. Paul Pioneer Press is reporting that Carlos Gomez has won the Twins' CF job.  This isn't big news, as beating out Denard Span and Jason Pridie was pretty much expected.  Gomez was #13 on the Top 100 fantasy prospects list.  Let's take a look at what kind of player the fantasy world is obtaining.

HR: -$2.29.  Don't expect much here.  I think the best case scenario is 10-12; the more likely scenario is 5-7.  Scouts see a little power developing with Gomez's great bat speed, but that may still be a bit away.

R: $1.58.  Gomez will probably bat leadoff for the Twins, who were the 3rd worst team in the AL at scoring runs last year.  Take Torii Hunter away, add Adam Everett, and things don't appear to be looking up for their run scoring potential.  He'll probably be around 70 runs scored if he leads off all season; not an asset, but not a liability either.

RBI: -$2.94.  Seeing as Brendan Harris and Adam Everett will be the 8/9 of the lineup, don't expect too many RBI opportunities for Gomez.

SB: $12.98.  This is pretty much all of his value.  Gomez is a pure burner.  Despite his 78% success rate in the minors, he's gone 10 for 10 this spring.  He's probably a lock for 35 SBs, with the upside for 50.

AVG: -$3.99.  He's a career .273 minor league hitter who hit .232 in 139 big league PAs last year.  He's going to be a liability in this category.

Total: $5.34.  Gomez is worth an add if you can afford to take a hit in three categories.  He's an absolute burner who could be a top 10 base stealer this season.

Top 100 Prospects

Everyone remembers how dominant Ryan Braun was last season.  I especially do, as I had him on my roster for about a week after he got called up - then I cut him.  That wasn't my best move of the season, I'll say that.  While no one would have predicted the season he had, if you merely looked at his weighted mean projection in Baseball Prospectus 2007, it was evident he was worthy of an add in a mixed league. 

With that in mind, I took the BP Top 100 prospects list, and evaluated what the players values would be if they got a starting gig.  Some of the players listed may already be on a big league roster.  The values for all of the players are based on their weighted mean projections, as opposed to their projected playing time projection.  If they're shown with positive value, that's a real good indication.  The system is pretty harsh for pitchers; even Yovani Gallardo's 2007 weighted mean would have received a -$4.10 value.

As prospects get the call to the bigs, I'll review them on a case by case basis.  These values are just a good place to start in evaluating them.  A dominant half season at AAA would probably change our opinion of most of them.  Since I don't want to post 100 names in one post, you can click here to download an Excel file with the data.  Although I can't provide the actual projections of the players, I did include the categorical dollar valuations of the players to give you an idea of what kind of value the players bring to the table.