Nine Bo Jacksons

Position Review: 1st Base

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1B MVP: Lance Berkman [$56.57] - .389 AVG, 16 HR, 48 R, 44 RBI, 8 SB
Average Player with Positive Value: [$13.91] - .280 AVG, 8 HR, 24 R, 27 RBI, 1 SB
Replacement Level Player: Kevin Millar [$1.00] - .234 AVG, 5 HR, 21 R, 21 RBI, 0 SB

Best HR Source: Lance Berkman [16]
Best R Source: Lance Berkman [48]
Best RBI Source: Lance Berkman [44]
Best SB Source: Lance Berkman [8]
Best AVG Source: Lance Berkman [65 H in 167 AB - .389 AVG]

The Top 3:

1. Lance Berkman [$56.57]: .389 AVG, 16 HR, 48 R, 44 RBI, 8 SB.  Start the panic!  Berkman went 0 for 4 last night, including 3 strikeouts.  The end is near!  Just kidding, of course.  Lance gets to face Ryan Dempster tonight, whom he's hit to the tune of .294/.455/.647 with 4 HR in 34 AB.  Buy.
2. Albert Pujols [$28.70]: .364 AVG, 11 HR, 28 R, 31 RBI, 2 SB.  I'm curious how the many people who passed on Pujols in the draft due to elbow concerns are feeling.  As one of those people, I'm eating my hat. His numbers are superb, and he'll likely be right around where his pre-season projections put him at.  Buy.
3. Kevin Youkilis [$25.71]: .327 AVG, 9 HR, 30 R, 34 RBI, 2 SB.  Youk continues to swing a hot stick, going 9 for 25 in the past week with 1 HR, 4 RBI, and 3 R.  His value actually went down over the past week by $2.06, though, and I think he's due to keep falling.  Sell.

Thoughts:

• Adrian Gonzalez [$18.12]: Buy.
  
  • HR: Gonzo's power is right back where it was last year, hitting 11 HR while slugging .508, just .006 over last year's numbers.  His power is very real, and he's looking like he'll hit 30 HR again.
  • R: Scoring 26 runs in the Padres offense deserves a medal of honor.
  • RBI: As pretty much the only guy in the Friars' lineup who can drive in runs, his 34 RBI thus far put him on pace for over 100 RBI.  He should end up right about there.
  • SB: He's attempted to steal once in his career, and was thrown out doing so.
  • AVG: Gonzo's currently hitting .268 on a .286 BABIP.  BP thinks he's a .280 hitter, and that seems about right.
  • Conclusion: What you see is what you get.  Gonzo should remain around this level of value.
• Carlos Pena [$3.89]: Sell.
  
  • HR: With 9 HR thus far, Pena isn't looking like the 46 HR hitter we saw last year.  He'll likely end up in the mid 30s.
  • R: With only 21 R scored thus far, he's below the positional average with players of positive value.
  • RBI: With only 23 RBI thus far, reaching the century mark is still possible, but I wouldn't bank on it.
  • SB: His running game is non-existant.
  • AVG: Hitting .282 last year was a complete fluke.  The .215 AVG is being done with a .260 BABIP, so expect progression towards the .255-.260 range.
  • Conclusion: Pena was going way too high in drafts for my taste to start with.  He's a useful role player, but no one to build a team around.
     
• Jason Giambi [$1.27]: Sell.
  
  • HR: With 8 HR thus far, Giambi should end up in the 20 HR range again.
  • R: Predominantly hitting 5th in the Yanks order, he's not looking like a tremendous source of runs right now.
  • RBI: He's doing well with RBI opportunities, driving in 21 in 143 PA when the MLB average player would drive in 15 with the same number of PAs.
  • SB: Nope, nothing here.
  • AVG: The .191 AVG is being done with a .146 BABIP, so he should at least cross the Mendoza line soon.  Don't expect anything far above that line, though.
  • Conclusion: The Golden Thong must have thrown Giambi into positive value.  I don't think he'll be able to maintain this, though, as it is Jason Giambia we're talking about here.
• Paul Konerko [-$0.87]: Sell.
  
  • HR: Konerko's power is missing, with his SLG down to .356 this year. If he's truly relapsing towards the .399 SLG he had in '03, things won't look great here.
  • R: The CWS offense isn't looking that great, so don't expect him to be in the 90-100 range.
  • RBI: With only 23 RBI thus far, triple digits is looking like a reach here.
  • SB: Konerko stole his 6th base in his career this year.  Don't expect him to reach double digits this year.
  • AVG: The .212 AVG is looking ugly, but the .228 BABIP suggests it's due to rise.  I'm buying somewhere around a .255-.270 AVG.
  • Conclusion: Not too much to like here.
     

Position Review: Catcher

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

C MVP: Geovany Soto [$24.98] - .321 AVG, 8 HR, 20 R, 30 RBI, 0 SB
Average Player with Positive Value: [$9.21] - .295 AVG, 3 HR, 15 R, 16 RBI, 1 SB
Replacement Level Player: Jorge Posada [$1.00] - .302 AVG, 1 HR, 8 R, 11 RBI, 0 SB

Best HR Source: Mike Napoli [10]
Best R Source: Joe Mauer [25]
Best RBI Source: Geovany Soto [30]
Best SB Source: Russell Martin [4]
Best AVG Source: Dioner Navarro [32 H in 87 AB]

Thoughts:

• Mike Napoli [$18.18]-Buy.
  • HR: This is easily Napoli's strength.  BP had him hitting 15 HR in 415 PA; he's already hit 10 in 100 PA.  His power is very real.
  • R: Of Napoli's 13 R scored, 10 of them occurred because he hit a HR.  He's predominantly hit 8th in the order, not exactly the prime run scoring slot.
  • RBI: Napoli's 23 RBI ranks 3rd amongst catcher.  He should continue to provide a decent number of RBI for the position.
  • SB: Napoli is 3 for 4 in steal attempts thus far; he should end up around 7-9, but reaching double digits isn't unthinkable if they keep sending him.
  • AVG: He's no Joe Mauer, that's for sure.  Napoli's .258 AVG is being done with a .228 BABIP; if that get's up to a respectable level, he could hang around the .265-.270 mark.
  • Conclusion: He won't be an elite catcher with his AVG, but his power could keep him in the $15+ range, especially if his production takes PT away from Jeff Mathis.
• Chris Snyder [$8.65]-Sell.
  • HR: He's hit 3 thus far, and profiles as someone who has 20 HR potential.  He'll likely be around the 15 HR range at the end of the season.
  • R: The D-Backs offense is a good place to be, though Snyder hasn't benefited greatly from it in terms of run scoring, only scoring 13 thus far.
  • RBI: 22 RBI from a catcher is a good thing.  In the D-Backs offense, the RBI opportunities should keep heading Snyder's way.
  • SB: Snyder has never stolen a base, and only tried twice in his entire career.
  • AVG: He hit .301 in his last year in the minors, but seems to be a .260-.270 hitter at best.  His current .267 is partially due to a .338 BABIP, which is a little high.
  • Conclusion: The only thing Snyder has going for him is his RBI potential; other than that, there's not too much to be giddy about here.
     
• Dioner Navarro [$7.23]-Sell.
  • HR: With only 1 dinger thus far, and a career high of 9, his HR ceiling seems to be around 10-12 for this season.
  • R: Navarro is hitting between 7th and 8th mostly, so don't expect Joe Mauer like run scoring.
  • RBI: The 13 RBI is a little below average, even for the position, but he did miss significant time with the freak injury earlier this season.
  • SB: He's tried to steal twice, and been gunned down both times.  His running game is non-existant.
  • AVG: Navarro's astronomical .413 BABIP is a huge red flag; he's not a .368 hitter, obviously, but enjoy the ride while you can.
  • Conclusion: I bought on him last week, and still think he'll end up in positive value, but the $7 mark is a bit high for him this year.
     
• Carlos Ruiz [$0.20]-Sell.
  • HR: 1 dinger thus far, and not too much reason to think he'll bust double digits this year.  His SLG is way down, to .306 this season from a .384 career mark.
  • R: Ruiz is a back of the lineup kind of catcher, so don't expect too much here.
  • RBI: Not too much to like here, partially because he won't get the PT to keep the RBI opps heading his way.
  • SB: After swiping 6 in 7 tries last year, he hasn't even moved this year. Ruiz still has a better chance of stealing one or two than Chris Snyder, but don't expect anything near double digits.
  • AVG: The .235 AVG is a bit low, partially due to a .253 BABIP.  He's still a .255-.260 hitter, though.
  • Conclusion: With Chris Coste playing so well, Ruiz looks like he's locked into a full-fledged platoon.  That will handicap him significantly.
     
• Josh Bard [-$7.76]-Sell.
  • HR: Although his .522 SLG in '06 was obviously an anomaly, somewhere around .400 didn't seem out of question.  Slugging just .272 in 125 AB, double digit HRs looks like a reach.
  • R: The Padres offense is not the best place to look for runs.
  • RBI: The Padres offense is not the best place to look for RBI.
  • SB: He's tried to steal a base 4 times in his big league career, so there's not much here.
  • AVG: After hitting .285 last year, he's way down to .208 this year.  This was the one tool I thought Bard really brought to the table, but it's looking like he'll fall short there too.  The .241 BABIP is a bit low, but not low enough to explain a .208 AVG.
  • Conclusion: Not too much to like here with Bard.
     

Position Review: Relief Pitchers

Please note: This post does not include data from yesterday's games [5/18].

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

RP MVP: Joakim Soria [$22.74] - 17.3 IP, 1.04 ERA, 0.40 WHIP, 0 W, 11 SV, 20 K
Average RP With Positive Value: [$8.59] - 20 IP, 2.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 1 W, 4 SV, 18 K
Replacement Level Player: Octavio Dotel [$1.00] - 17.7 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 2 W, 0 SV, 27 K

Best W Source: Jose Valverde & Jorge Sosa [4]
Best SV Source: George Sherrill & Francisco Rodriguez [17]
Best K Source: Carlos Marmol [37]
Best ERA Source: Billy Wagner [17 IP of 0.00 ERA]
Best WHIP Source: Joakim Soria [17.3 IP of 0.40 WHIP]

Thoughts:

• Joey Devine [$15.04]: Buy.
  
  • Wins: He's been a big W beneficiary, getting 3 already.  You can't bank on those to continue at that pace, though.
  • Saves: With Huston Street there, Devine probably won't be in line for SV opps.
  • Strikeouts: Devine is a great strikeout pitcher, with a career 13.11 MiLB K/9.  His current 11.19 K/9 isn't a fluke at all.
  • ERA: He will give up runs eventually, but his 2.36 QERA is a great sign he can be an ERA asset.
  • WHIP: His .262 BABIP isn't absurd, especially for a reliever.  The BB/9 is good thus far, only at 2.03.  It looks like he left his control problems in Atlanta.
  • Conclusion: He won't have $15 value all season, but Devine should continue to be a great "alka-seltzer" RP in the mold of Jonathan Broxton.  Billy Beane looks good on this one.
• Jose Valverde [$12.33]: Buy.
  
  • Wins: The 4 Ws thus far are nice, partially a result of his blown saves.  That's one good thing that can happen when closers implode.
  • Saves: He's getting the opportunities, and has been converting on them lately. 
  • Strikeouts: Valverde's always been a great K pitcher [11.42 career K/9], and this year is no different [10.96.]
  • ERA: Valverde's had 13 straight scoreless appearances, a good sign that he's gotten things under control since his early season struggles.  His 2.90 QERA is another encouraging sign that his ERA will continue to plummet.
  • WHIP: The BABIP is marginally higher than the Astros', but it's not that big of a deal.  He hasn't walked a batter in 9 outings, a good sign his control is back.
  • Conclusion:  Valverde's value should continue to rise, and he'll be a top-tier closer once again.
• Francisco Cordero [$7.93]: Sell.
  
  • Wins: 1 W thus far.
  • Saves: Not too many opportunities for saves in Cincy these days.  He's 9 for 10 in SV opps.
  • Strikeouts: CoCo is always a good source for Ks, to the tune of 10.73 K/9 this season.
  • ERA: The QERA isn't a fan thus far, as his 13 BB in 19.3 IP are indicating he can't continue to be Harry Houdini.
  • WHIP: A very low BABIP, coupled with his control problems doesn't give me cause to think the 1.24 WHIP will immediately go down.
  • Conclusion: It's not looking like he'll be the dominant closer he once was, but still a useful pitcher for certain.  He's got good name value, so capitalize on it.
• J.J. Putz [-$5.72]: Buy.
  
  • Wins: 1 W thus far.
  • Saves: He blew one on May 1, but has seemingly gotten back on track.
  • Strikeouts: A superb K rate as always, logging in at 11.25 K/9 this year.
  • ERA: The QERA suggests he's outpitched his peripherals by about 1.39 thus far.
  • WHIP: The .375 BABIP is significantly higher than the teams' .313, so expect some help there.  The BB rate is troubling, though.  He's at 9 BB in 12 IP this season, compared to 13 BB in 71.7 IP last year.
  • Conclusion: His gig is secured, and his past 6 outings have looked strong.  He's not looking like he did last year, but my faith in J.J. is secured.

Position Review: Starting Pitchers

Please note: This post does not include stats from yesterday's games [5/18].

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

SP MVP: Cliff Lee [$47.06] - 53.7 IP, 0.67 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 6 W, 44 K
Average SP With Positive Value: [$11.91] - 49 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4 W, 38 K
Replacement Level Player: Jesse Litsch [$1.00] - 49 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 5 W, 31 K

Best W Source: Brandon Webb [9]
Best K Source: Tim Lincecum [63]
Best ERA Source: Cliff Lee [53.7 IP of 0.67 ERA]
Best WHIP Source: Cliff Lee [53.7 IP of 0.67 WHIP]

Thoughts:

• Shaun Marcum [$30.23]: Buy.
  
  • Wins: Marcum's 4 Ws thus far are the only real knock against him.  It's not his fault, but it still affects his value.  The Jays are only scoring 3.85 runs per game; only KC is worse. 
  • Strikeouts: He's currently at a 8.11 mark this season; his career rate is a 7.22.  Even if his K rate regresses to his career average, he's still a good K source.
  • ERA: Marcum's 2.50 ERA is 1.08 lower than his QERA [3.58].  Expect some regression there, but he's still capable of being an ERA asset.
  • WHIP: Shaun is an obvious BABIP beneficiary, as his .178 is much lower than the Jays' .282 mark.
  • Conclusion: Expect regression from the $30 range, but he's certainly capable of being a very useful pitcher.
• Aaron Laffey [$12.75]: Sell
  
  • Wins: Cleveland's offense has been mediocre at best, but I think they're going to turn that around sooner or later.
  • Strikeouts: Laffey will never be a high K guy, but his current 4.72 K/9 should rise, as he posted a 6.26 K/9 in his minor league career.
  • ERA: He's outpitched his QERA by 2.99 thus far; his GB% is strong, but expect regression in the ERA column.
  • WHIP: I remember watching Laffey's season debut against the Yanks, when he had a no-no going into the 5th.  His .214 BABIP is significantly lower than his teams' .285 mark; there will be regression, but he's certainly capable of being a good source of WHIP.
  • Conclusion: Laffey should still be a pitcher with positive value, but I'd sell high here.
• Max Scherzer [$1.74]: Buy
  
  • Wins: The D-Backs offense should continue to give him a good amount of run support.
  • Strikeouts: The 10.73 K/9 is quite impressive; Scherzer will be a great strikeout pitcher for years to come.
  • ERA: Minus the hiccup in his first start, Scherzer has been very strong.  His QERA of 3.23 is a good sign that his low ERA isn't hollow.
  • WHIP: Walks were a problem in his last start [4 BB in 5 IP].  His BABIP is currently a very high .340, compared to his teams .281 mark, so expect his WHIP to come down once the BABIP does.
  • Conclusion: Scherzer is really fun to watch, and his value will only shoot up from here.
• Chris Young [-$4.92]: Sell
  
  • Wins: The Padres' offense is a complete joke.  Even the Giants' offense is better; that's saying something.
  • Strikeouts: Young is still a good source for Ks, as his 8.52 K/9 this season isn't too far from his 8.09 career mark.
  • ERA: His 5.19 QERA indicates his actual 4.18 ERA is going to take a hit.
  • WHIP: Young's BB/9 has shot up significantly, from a 3.35 career mark to a 5.05 this year.  Not a good sign at all.
  • Conclusion: There's not too much to like here.
• Felix Hernandez [-$6.12]: Buy
  
  • Wins: The offense in Seattle is pretty bad.
  • Strikeouts: Always a King Felix stronghold, his K/9 is down a bit this year, but still an asset.
  • ERA: He's outpitched his QERA by almost 1.00.
  • WHIP: The BABIP is a bit high at .332, but so is the team mark of .313.  There should be moderate progress here.
  • Conclusion: Not the best signs in Ws and ERA, but his value should increase from here.
• Hiroki Kuroda [-$8.64]: Sell
  
  • Wins: The Dodgers' offense is .26 runs per game better than the NL average; they can score runs.
  • Strikeouts: Not expected to be the biggest source of K's, the 5.17 K/9 is definitely a liability.
  • ERA: The 3.69 ERA is good thus far, but the 4.79 QERA doesn't think it'll hold.
  • WHIP: His .277 is a bit lower than the team's .309 mark, but it's not that absurd.
  • Conclusion: He may end up somewhere in positive value, but there's not too much to like here.

Position Review: Outfielders

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OF MVP: Nate McLouth [$37.28] - .312 AVG, 12 HR, 36 R, 36 RBI, 4 SB
Average OF with Positive Value: [$13.10] - .283 AVG, 5 HR, 23 R, 22 RBI, 4 SB
Replacement Level Player: Ryan Spilborghs [$1.00] - .306 AVG, 1 HR, 12 R, 17 RBI, 3 SB

Best HR Source: Nate McLouth [12]
Best R Source: Chris Young [37]
Best RBI Source: Josh Hamilton [49]
Best SB Source: Ichiro Suzuki & Michael Bourn [18]
Best AVG Source: Josh Hamilton [56 H in 175 AB]

Thoughts:

• Nick Markakis [$18.15]: Nick has parked 8 HR and swiped 6 bases thus far.  After hitting .300 last year, the only big knock on him this season is his .267 AVG.  The BABIP is at .305, so that's not the culprit.  His strikeout rate is way up from 17.58% last year to 24.67% this year.  Markakis should be able to adjust and get that AVG at a more respectable level.  If he does that, his value will shoot up.  Buy.
• Hunter Pence [$12.99]: Pence started off slow, but has been raking as of late.  He's 11 for his last 27, with 6 R, 4 RBI, and 3 SB.  Don't get too giddy though - the BABIP at .339 is unsustainable.  Pence has batted leadoff in place of Michael Bourn these past two games, and if that continues, look for him to score a lot more runs.  Pence's value should fall right in this range at the end of the season, but I like his upside.  Buy.
• Nick Swisher [-$2.71]: Not the greatest start for Swisher thus far.  Although we all knew he wasn't much of a player who could hit for AVG, he's only hitting .208 right now.  The .250 BABIP is a bit low, so expect his AVG to get back up around his career .247 mark.  His SLG is way down, from .455 last year to .329 this year.  All in all, there's not too much to like here.  Sell.
• Shane Victorino [-$3.61]: Hampered by injuries early on, the Flyin' Hawaiian just hasn't looked great.  The .237 AVG is coupled with a low .265 BABIP, so expect the AVG to rise to a .280 level. Overall, he's not stealing bases at the rate he did last year, which would certainly knock his value.  On the good side, he has swiped 2 in the past week, so maybe that trend is reversing.  All in all, I'd expect his value to continue to rise.   Buy.
   

Position Review: Shortstop

Please note: The valuation data for this post does not include data from the past two days' [5/15 & 5/16] games.

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

SS MVP: Hanley Ramirez [$40.33] - .327 AVG, 9 HR, 34 R, 23 RBI, 13 SB
Average SS With Positive Value: .298 AVG, 3 HR, 23 R, 17 RBI, 4 SB
Replacement Level Player: Jimmy Rollins [$1.00] - .286 AVG, 3 HR, 10 R, 11 RBI, 3 SB

Best HR Source: Hanley Ramirez [9]
Best R Source: Hanley Ramirez & Rafael Furcal [34]
Best RBI Source: Miguel Tejada [31]
Best SB Source: Hanley Ramirez [13]
Best AVG Source: Rafael Furcal [49 H in 134 AB - .366 AVG]

Thoughts:

• Ryan Theriot [$16.77]: The Riot is currently sporting a .329 AVG, thanks in large part to a lofty .362 BABIP.  Expect regression there.  We all know he can steal; in fact, most people drafted him for that reason.  He's not riding a fluky RBI or HR total, as he only has 10 RBI and 1 HR thus far.  The Cubs offense is legit, so the R totals seem to be legit as well.  All in, expect a little regression in AVG, but it looks like owners of The Riot will turn a profit this year.  Buy.
• Jose Reyes [$13.41]: What's up with Reyes?  He's on pace to "only" steal 50 bases, when most people drafted him expecting near 70.  The Mets' offense hasn't exactly been elite, suppressing his runs scored totals.  His .258 AVG isn't due in part to a fluky BABIP; that's at .286.  All in all, I'm not 100% sure what's up with Reyes, but temper your expectations.  I don't think we're getting a .300 AVG with 70 SB and 120 R, but Reyes will still be a useful player; I'd expect around a .280 AVG, 55 SB and 100 R.  His value may increase from here, but I'd try to capitalize on the "name" value and make a deal.  Sell.
• Stephen Drew [$11.53]: My pre-season valuations [based on BP's projections] had Drew at only $1.38.  He's currently hitting .289 on a high but not ridiculous .305 BABIP.  Drew isn't riding obscene R & RBI totals [26 & 18, respectively], so those aren't exactly red flags.  He wasn't ever going to steal 20 bases, so the 1 SB thus far isn't a knock on him at all.  All in all, he may regress a tad, but this is looking like a good season.  Buy.
• Khalil Greene [-$5.15]: Khalil wasn't ever going to be confused for a guy competing for a batting title, but even the current .215 AVG is a disappointment.  The .248 BABIP is a sign he's due to get up to his normal .250'ish AVG.  The power, on the other hand, is not looking like it's there.  The .323 SLG is a big red flag, and it's looking more and more like last years .468 SLG was an anomaly.  Don't expect 25 HRs here.  Sell.
• J.J. Hardy [-$7.15]: Hardy hasn't ever seemed to be on track.  He started the season ill, and hasn't ever gotten it together.  With only 1 HR and 10 RBI, he's not looking like the decent power source at SS most people expected.  There's just not too much to like here.  Sell.

Position Review: 3rd Base

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

3B MVP: Chipper Jones [$37.52] - .418 AVG, 11 HR, 29 R, 32 RBI, 0 SB
Average 3B With Positive Value: [$10.99] - .274 AVG, 6 HR, 21 R, 22 RBI, 2 SB
Replacement Level Player: Casey Blake [$1.00] - .219 AVG, 2 HR, 18 R, 25 RBI, 1 SB

Best HR Source: Chipper Jones [11]
Best R Source: Chipper Jones & Aramis Ramirez [29]
Best RBI Source: Chipper Jones & David Wright [32]
Best SB Source: Chone Figgins [11]
Best AVG Source: Chipper Jones [61 H in 146 AB]

Thoughts:

• David Wright [$20.19]: Why isn't Wright hitting .300?  He's having a very solid season, but the .276 AVG is definitely a disappointment to his owners.  His .300 BABIP is a sign it's not all bad luck.  A week ago, Howard Johnson (NYM hitting coach) said "He's just over-swinging - coming off the ball, a lot of upper body".  Wright is still a solid player, and I'm pretty certain he'll come around and hit .300+ again...just give him time.  Buy.
• Mark Reynolds [$15.67]: This guy strikes out a lot.  39% of his ABs have resulted in strike outs.  BP had him at a .271 AVG, but if he keeps striking out like that, there's no way he'll even reach that.  His power is very real, and the 4 SB are a nice sign that he's capable of a 30 HR/10 SB season.  He makes sense if you have a team loaded with high AVG hitters, but I always try to avoid players with gaping holes in their game like Reynolds. Sell.
• Ryan Zimmerman [$5.31]: A popular breakout pick this season, Zimm is only hitting .240 thus far.  Part of that is due to a .256 BABIP, so expect his AVG to rise.  The Nats are the 3rd worst in runs scored, and the 2nd worst in OBP, so don't expect a gigantic rush in the team dependent stats.  I'd expect Zimm's value to rise from here, but I'd certainly feel better if his teammates picked up the pace.  Buy.
• Evan Longoria [-$2.64]: Longoria has yet to really break out.  I certainly didn't expect him to hit .300 right away, but the .216 didn't seem right either.  Longoria has a .250 BABIP, partially but not wholly explaining the low AVG.  I'd expect him to breakout at some point; players of his pedigree normally don't just come to the bigs and flounder.  Buy.
• Ty Wigginton [-$14.81]: Largely a result of the time missed from the thumb injury, Wiggy isn't producing what a lot of fantasy owners hoped he would.  The 3 SB are a good sign, and he should continue to steal a decent amount of bases for a pudgy 3B.  The .256 BABIP gives cause for hope, and the Astros' offense is continuing to look stronger.  All signs point upward for Wiggy.  Buy.

Position Review: 2nd Base

2B MVP: Chase Utley [$37.67] - .325 AVG, 13 HR, 32 R, 28 RBI, 3 SB
Average Production of a 2B with Positive Value: .276 AVG, 4 HR, 21 R, 18 RBI, 4 SB
Replacement Level Player: Jeff Kent [$1.00] - .250 AVG, 3 HR, 13 R, 19 RBI, 0 SB

Best HR Source: Chase Utley [13]
Best R Source: Chase Utley [32]
Best RBI Source: Dan Uggla [29]
Best SB Source: Ian Kinsler & Brian Roberts [11]
Best AVG Source: Howie Kendrick [18 H in 36 AB]

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Thoughts:

• Ian Kinsler - TEX [$25.57]: As a person who drafted Kinsler, I was expecting around a 20/20 season with a low batting average.  Kinsler has already stolen 11 bases, 4 of them in the past week.  He's hitting .310 currently, but his 85.16% contact rate, 6.78% walk rate, and .341 BABIP suggest he won't continue to do so.  Regardless, even if he regresses back to the .270 AVG area, his end of season line should look solid, given his extra prowess on the basepaths.  Buy.
• Kelly Johnson - ATL [$8.47]: Johnson has been solid, but not spectacular.  His .268 AVG isn't necessarily a fluke, as his .296 BABIP is slightly above league average [.293].  I'd expect him to get his AVG back to the .275 area, and continue to be a solid but not spectacular contributor in all 5 categories.  Buy.
• Kazuo Matsui - HOU [$5.16]: Matsui's been a pleasant surprise since returning from his injury.  The good news here is that most of it looks sustainable.  His value hasn't been dependent upon the long ball [1 HR thus far], nor on RBI [11], nor on AVG [.264].  He's strictly a two category guy, stealing 6 bases and scoring 20 runs thus far.  Given the Astros' baserunning philosophy and their potent offense [#5 in runs scored], this is completely sustainable for Matsui.  Buy.
• Jeff Kent - LAD [$1.00]: Kent has hit .292 and .302 in the past two years, but is only hitting .250 this year.  His BABIP is down at .265, which is an encouraging sign that part of the reason he's hitting so low is due to bad luck.  Kent's SLG is way down to .397, not an encouraging sign for a 40 year old player.  In the end, I think Kent rebounds in AVG, but doesn't pop the 20 HR we were all hoping for.  I'd try to avoid Kent if I could, though he won't kill you.  Sell.
• Freddy Sanchez - PIT [-$0.12]: Sanchez was supposed to pretty much be a one-category contributor in AVG.  He's been a little unfortunate in BABIP [.282], but not so much that it explains his .253 AVG.  Sanchez isn't whiffing any more than normal, within a percent or so of what he did last year.  I'm not 100% sure why Sanchez isn't hitting, but it's not a good sign.  Sell.
  

Position Review: 1st Base

Please note: These valuations do not include data from last night's [5/12] games.

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Average 1B with Positive Value: 130 AB, .281 AVG, 7 HR,  21 R, 24 RBI, 1 SB

Best HR Source: Lance Berkman [12]
Best R Source: Lance Berkman [40]
Best RBI Source: Lance Berkman [36]
Best SB Source: Lance Berkman [6]
Best AVG Source: Lance Berkman [52 H in 136 AB]

Thoughts:

• Lance Berkman - HOU [$53.52]: I know I said I wouldn't rave about players who we all know are good, but Berkman has been historically good.  Berkman is 25 for his last 39, hitting .641/.689/1.205 in the month of May.  That's a 1.894 OPS.  It's only ten games, but I'm still impressed.  Enjoy the ride; I sure am.  Buy.
• Kevin Youkilis - BOS [$27.77]: This is a very impressive stretch for Youk.  He's on pace for a .322 AVG, 32 HR, 109 R, 122 RBI, and 8 SB.  He's currently slugging .596; the only time he's ever slugged over .453 is in 152 AB at AAA Pawtucket in 2005.  Unless he was due for a power surge at age 29, I think Youk is in way over his head at this value.  Sell.
• Miguel Cabrera - DET [$7.17]: What's up with Miggy?  His walk rate is a nice 11.25%, but his contact rate is down to 80.58%, resulting in a .252 AVG.  I really don't know how to explain why he's only a $7 player, but Jim Leyland thinks "He probably feels like the weight of the club is on his shoulders. We just want him to do what he can do, he doesn't need to do any more than that."  There isn't any metric I have to justify this, but Cabrera will turn it around.  Buy.
• Mark Teixeira - ATL [$6.92]: Teixeira is sporting a 86.96% contact rate, with a 12.03% walk rate, yet has a .261 AVG.  He should inch towards .300 in the near future.  The power has been conspicuously absent this season, with only a .435 SLG thus far.  He seems to have a bad home road split, hitting .233/.333/.370 at home but hitting .292/.378/.508 on the road.  Teix slugged .596 at Turner Field last year, so this just seems to be a bad funk for him.  May be a good buy low opportunity.  Buy.
• Prince Fielder - MIL [$4.19]: [Insert assumption about vegetarianism sapping Fielder's power here].  He's always been a big strikeout guy, whiffing in 21.44% of his major league ABs.  Fielder is actually striking out less this year, only in 17.29% of his ABs.  He's not a .288 hitter like he was last year, but he certainly isn't a .241 hitter like he is this year.  What gives?  Milwaukee isn't scoring runs, ranking #20 in the bigs at doing so.  They're also #24 at getting on base.  That whole team is in a funk, but I'd imagine Fielder will still find 40+ HR power in his bat.  Buy.
• Ryan Howard - PHI [-$1.22]: Another struggling slugging first baseman.  Howard always strikes out [34.17% career rate], but he's at 38.57% this season.  His slugging is way down to .357 this season, not a good sign at all.  Howard is a second half player, with .249/.339/.522 Pre-ASB line compared to a .310/.429/.649 Post-ASB.  He's not a .300 hitter, and is more likely to hit .260-.270, but he just seems to be experiencing his usual beginning of the season slump.  I don't have any reason to think he won't pop 40+ HR again.  Buy.

Position Review: Catcher

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Best HR Source: Mike Napoli [8]
Best R Source: Joe Mauer [22]
Best RBI Source: Geovany Soto [24]
Best SB Source: Ivan Rodriguez & Russell Martin [3]
Best AVG Source: Victor Martinez [36 H in 104 AB]

In lieu of breaking down the top 10, I'm going to start to review players on a somewhat random basis.  I think we all know that Brian McCann and Russell Martin are good catchers. I want to focus more on examining whether certain players are legitimately good or due for a regression, or whether certain players are legitimately bad or due to break out of a slump.

Thoughts:

• Ryan Doumit: $19.64: Per Ron Shandler, a true .300 hitter is one with a 86% contact rate and an 11% walk rate.  Doumit currently sports exactly an 86.00% contact rate, combined with a 3.77% walk rate.  Doumit is currently hitting .340, well above any mark he's ever achieved.  BP's 90th percentile projection, a decent indication of a players ceiling, has him hitting .303.  Could Doumit hit .300?  Absolutely.  Will he likely do so?  Nope.  He is slugging way above his head at .560, though .490-.500 is certainly possible.  He won't be this good, but he'll certainly be good enough for the position.  Buy.
• Victor Martinez: $6.06: V-Mart was a consistent 3rd round pick due to the expectation of him being solid in HR, R, RBI, and AVG.  Thus far, he's delivered on the AVG at .346, but been below expectations everywhere else.  He did miss some time with an injury, but is still #14 in ABs amongst catchers.  What gives?  Cleveland is tied for 20th in OBP, therefore limiting RBI opportunities for V-Mart.  I don't think the Tribe's offense stays in this funk all season long.  It  also doesn't seem likely that he'll slug .500 again, but his .404 should certainly rise.  Buy.
• Dioner Navarro: $4.01: He can't possibly be as bad as he was last year, when he hit .227/.286/.356 in 388 AB.  Navarro's AVG is really carrying him, as he's currently hitting .333 in 66 AB.  He missed some time with the freak injury earlier this season, causing him to be lagging a little in the counting stats.  I like what I'm seeing here, as his age and team's upside certainly gives cause for believing he's capable of being a capable fantasy C.  Buy.
• J.R. Towles: -$3.69: Towles hasn't hit a HR since April 19, and has regressed in nearly every category in the past month.  More importantly, he hasn't even attempted to steal a base this season, which was something his owners were banking on.  I certainly though we'd see Towlie run with Cecil Cooper's aggressive baserunning management.  There's not too much to like here for a guy who was expected to be in over his head at this level, as he only had 83 AB of experience above AA before this season began.  If anything, he showed us early on that he has good power potential, but that's not enough to calm my fears.  Sell.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia: -$10.10: I'll get some first hand scouting on Salty when I head up to Arlington for the Astros/Rangers series this weekend.  He is currently splitting time with Gerald Laird and not doing much with the 29 ABs he's had.  It's an incredibly small sample size, and with his work at AAA [.291/.391/.491 in 55 AB], I wouldn't write him off entirely.  He was way overdrafted in the first place; I just think most people should have tempered their expectations to start with.  Although he won't be -$10 bad, with the PT in question, I'm a skeptic.  Sell.
• Kenji Johjima: -$10.39: Quite frankly, there's just not too much to like here.  Johjima has had 106 AB, but hasn't done anything with them.  It's not all his fault; the Mariners are 2nd worst in team OBP and the 6th worst in runs scored.  Regardless, there's little reason for optimism for either Johjima or the Mariners.  Sell.