Thoughts on PECOTA

On the eve of most of my drafts, I'm taking a look at PECOTA's take on the upcoming season.  Here's some of my thoughts:

• Catchers:
  • Martin over Martinez?  It's close, for certain.  I think PECOTA is underestimating Martinez's power numbers.
  • Soto as the #6 catcher?  It's certainly possible.
  • After Soto, everyone appears to be pretty much the same.  This is one of the reasons why you absolutely have to nab a top 5 catcher.
• 1st Base:
  • Conor Jackson ahead of Justin Morneau and Paul Konerko?  He looks like a nice sleeper, valued at $10.52.
  • Matt Stairs with positive value?  Wow.
• 2nd Base:
  • Kelly Johnson as the #6 second baseman?  Completely feasible.
  • Brandon Phillips as the #8 second baseman?  All the people drafting him in the 2nd round certainly hope not.
• 3rd Base:
  • Ryan Braun worth more than A-Rod?  I think it's possible.  Braun's value should increase a few bucks once he gains OF eligibility.
  • Zimmerman worth more than Atkins?  Atkins was terrible on the road last year, hitting just .254/.327/.446 away from Coors, diminishing his value for those in H2H leagues.  Also, Zimmerman is moving to a park much friendlier to hitters than RFK.
• Shortstops:
  • Han-Ram versus Reyes?  Not even close - Ramirez by more than $5.00.
  • Tulowitzki as the king outside of the Holy Trinity?
• Outfielders:
  • Chris Young #3?  Completely possible.
  • Corey Hart ahead of Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman?
  • Lastings Milledge #14?  For those who have seen him play this spring as I have, you've seen the kind of upside he still has.  I think he's going to make Omar Minaya look pretty foolish.
  • Adam Jones #27?  Interesting.
  • Rick Ankiel #34?  His projections look so much like Pat Burrell's.  As long as you don't have Ankiel paired with Adam Dunn in your OF, Ankiel could be a good late round pick.
• Utility:
  
  • Billy Butler worth $10.72?  He did hit .292 as a 22 year old - time is on his side.
• Starting Pitchers:
  • John Smoltz #3?  Ageless.
  • Joba's 150 IP worth $18.16?  I'm a skeptic.
  • Kuroda worth more than Billingsley?
  • Andrew Miller with positive value?  Interesting.
• Relief Pitchers:
  • Huston Street #1?  If he gets 40+ saves, he certainly has the stuff and upside to pull it off.
  • Rafael Soriano #7, ahead of Joe Nathan and Takashi Saito?
  • Joakim Soria #8, ahead of Valverde and F.Cordero?