Nine Bo Jacksons

Smoltz to Close for the Braves?

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, John Smoltz "hopes to be back pitching in 15 to 30 days and said he would consider returning to the closer role."  He has to get healthy first, of course, as he's currently on the DL for inflammation in the biceps and the rotator cuff.  Also, I'd assume Frank Wren and Bobby Cox would be involved in the decision as well.

Regardless, if the move is made, it could unfold one of two ways for the fantasy world.  If he stays a starter, he's going to remain a big injury risk, which limits his value.  You'd take a fully healthy, starting John Smoltz over a fully healthy, closing John Smoltz; but how likely is it that Smoltz can be a fully healthy starter for the rest of the season?  This second DL stint before the end of April has made me a skeptic.  If he takes over the closing role, this would obviously severely diminish Rafael Soriano's value, but he'd still be a valuable MR option.  If history tells us anything, Smoltz is much more likely to stay healthy as a closer.  Taking the three full seasons in which he closed games, he averaged 75.43 IP with 48 SVs, a 2.47 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP with a 9.66 K/9 and a 5.4 K/BB ratio.

Using some funny math, I took Smoltz's production as a starter thus far and then used past numbers to predict what numbers he'd put up as a closer once he returns (targeting May 21 as a return date).  Using BP's projection as a 200 IP starter, his value was $28.69.  Using my funny math projection, his value would be $27.33 as a starter-turned-closer.  If BP's 200 IP starter projection turned out to be correct, he'll stand to lose $1.36 of value.  I don't think he'd meet that 200 IP projection as a starter, especially after two April DL stints.

So, the question is, is it better to have Smoltz as an injury risk starter or a healthy closer?  I'll take the second option.  Although it's easily to best option to minimize risk, we'll have to wait and see what Smoltz, Wren and Cox decide.

Mike Pelfrey Named Mets' 5th Starter

The 9th overall pick from the 2005 draft was announced as the Mets' 5th starter, and should get the rock Saturday versus the Braves.  El Duque will likely hit the DL to start the season, and no one knows for certain what happens when he gets back.  The old man can still pitch, though in lesser and lesser amounts recently.  I'd DL him in both formats, if you can.

As for Pelfrey, he split time last season between AAA and the Show, and wasn't really good at either.  He posted a 4.01 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP with a 6.81 K/9 and a 2.15 K/BB in 74 IP at AAA, then posted a 5.57 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP with a 5.57 K/9 and a 1.15 K/BB in 72.7 IP in the Show.  He's clearly got a lot to prove with this opportunity.  BP flags him with a 36% breakout rate and a 70% improve rate, but that may be just because last year was pretty bad and eclipsing those marks is highly likely.  Regardless, I'd put him at -$6.20 in Mixed leagues and -$0.29 in NL Only leagues.  I picked him up in my NL Only league, and would recommend y'all to do the same.  If he shows the kind of upside the Mets thought they were getting with the 9th overall pick, he could solidify himself in the rotation quickly.

Source: ESPN / Associated Press

Nats to Start Johnson, Belliard

Manny Acta picked Nick Johnson and Ronnie Belliard to start on the right side of the infield over Dmitri Young and Felipe Lopez, respectively.  Let's review the players affected.

• Nick Johnson: Johnson is a must add in NL Only formats, but a borderline add in Mixed Leagues.  It really depends on how strong you are with your CIs.  I think he'll contribute everywhere but SBs as the cleanup guy for the Nats.  If your league takes OBP into account, the "OBP Jesus" is a no-brainer.
• Ronnie Belliard: If he's out there in NL Only leagues, pick him up.  In Mixed formats, hold off for a while.  I think he's capable of producing decent numbers for a 2B, but I'm hesitant to recommend him for even a MI spot because of Lopez's presence.  Although Belliard will be "starting", I think Lopez could still see significant time [30% +] at 2B.
• Dmitri Young: Cut him in Mixed leagues, but hang onto him in NL Only leagues.  He's still going to get PT, just probably around the 30-35% range.  Unlike Lopez, Young is limited to one position.
• Felipe Lopez: Although he's said in the past that he wouldn't be happy on the bench,
  he's still in a position to spell both Guzman at SS and Belliard at 2B.  He could still easily get 500+ PAs, but it remains to be seen if he'll be dealt as a consequence.  Keep him in NL Only leagues, and I wouldn't pull the rip cord in Mixed formats until there's more clarification on his new status.