Nine Bo Jacksons

First Round Review

With over a month and a half of the season in the books, let's take a look at how the 1st round picks are doing [according to ADP data courtesy of www.mockdraftcentral.com].  The $ Value listed is their current value.

1. Alex Rodriguez-$3.61-After spending time on the DL due to the strained quad, Rodriguez has been good but not elite when he's been healthy.  A .308 AVG, 6 HR, 17 R, 15 RBI, and 1 SB isn't a bad haul, but far from great.  Although no one could have predicted the quad injury, if it limits his base stealing, A-Rod won't come near 1st round value.
2. Hanley Ramirez-$30.28-Han-Ram has flashed much better power than expected, jacking 9 HR in 171 AB.  He's currently in a 1 for 15 funk, but he's looking like a good bet to be one of the top players in the game.
3. David Wright-$21.23-Probably one of the safest bets in the draft, the only knock on Wright is that he's only hitting .287.  Even that is turning around, as he's hit .346 in the past week.  Once the flukes fluke out, I have a feeling Wright will end up as one of the best players in the game.
4. Jose Reyes-$16.58-Don't look now, but Reyes is getting hot.  2 HR, 2 SB, and a .385 AVG in the past week is making me re-think the "sell" tag I placed on Reyes a short time ago.  Everyone has hot streaks, though.  Reyes is only on pace for 50 SB, a far cry from the 65-70 most people expected.  He's got a lot to prove, but he's at least going to mitigate damage for his owners.
5. Matt Holliday-$22.46-With the Rockies looking pretty terrible, Holliday is not a reason why.  The .324 AVG is looking good, but who would have guessed he'd have more SB than HR at this point?  I'm not one.  Although the team dependent stats might take a hit with his teammates not doing so well, Holliday should do just fine on his own.
6. Miguel Cabrera-$9.35-One of the bigger disappointments so far, M-Cab hasn't even had time on the DL to blame for his lack of value.  Although there's no data I can point to, I just can't think of any reason why a 25 year old M-Cab won't reach his expectations.
7. Jimmy Rollins-$5.53-Another victim of the DL, J-Roll is back on track.  Hitting .379 over the past week with 3 SB, he's looking like he'll be able to mitigate early season DL damage.  There's little reason to think he won't be an elite player from here on out.
8. Chase Utley-$31.65-The player with the highest value amongst this group, Chutley is just doing what he does best.  He's playing so well that President Bush would take him with the first pick.  Barring another freak injury, Utley will easily justify his ADP.
9. Alfonso Soriano-$15.12-Another victim of the DL, Soriano has played out of his mind since returning.  The speed game isn't quite there with only 3 SB thus far, but he's still capable of meeting the 15-20 SB expectations.  As long as you weren't expecting a .300 AVG, Soriano's production should come close to meeting his expectations.
10. Albert Pujols-$26.81-A lot of people (myself included) passed over Pujols due to elbow concerns, but now a lot of people (myself included) are eating their hats.  Although the team surrounding him is certainly suspect, Prince Albert certainly is not.
11. Ryan Howard-$9.49-Off to a slow start and still hitting below the Mendoza line, Howard is still hitting the long ball.  Just remember that he's a second half player [.251/.341/.533 pre-ASB compared to .301/.429/.649 post-ASB].  I'm a big believer in Howard from July on out.
12. Johan Santana-$15.41-In one sense, Santana is a failure in that he is not the #1 pitcher, which is what most people drafted him expecting.  Then again, he is pitching well, and once the flukes fluke out of the picture, I'd expect him to be near the cream of the crop.

Just remember, it's never the first round picks that make or break your team - it's every move that follows those picks.

Nine Bo Jacksons 2008 Tour

So, it looks like I've got this summer off from work. I stop working at my current job on April 30, graduate from UH on May 9, and the teaching job I've accepted won't start until the fall.  What would any normal person do if they had 2 and a half months off during summer?  Tour every ballpark in the country (& Canada), of course.  I figure since most students spend a good chunk of money "studying abroad", I might as well spend a good chunk of money traveling across various parts of North America.

Here's the rough itinerary:

• May 30-HOU @ MIL
• May 31-NYY @ MIN
• Jun 02-LAA @ SEA
• Jun 04-NYM @ SFG
• Jun 06-LAA @ OAK
• Jun 08-CHC @ LAD
• Jun 09-TBR @ LAA
• Jun 11-LAD @ SDP
• Jun 13-KCR @ ARI
• Jun 17-CLE @ COL
• Jun 18-CLE @ COL
• Jun 19-CLE @ COL
• Jun 20-SFG @ KCR
• Jun 24-STL @ DET
• Jun 25-SFG @ CLE
• Jun 26-CIN @ TOR
• Jun 27-TBR @ PIT
• Jun 30-WAS @ FLA
• Jul 01-BOS @ TBR
• Jul 02-PHI @ ATL
• Jul 03-NYM @ STL
• Jul 07-MIN @ BOS
• Jul 08-TBR @ NYY
• Jul 09-SFG @ NYM
• Jul 10-STL @ PHI
• Jul 11-HOU @ WAS
• Jul 12-HOU @ WAS
• Jul 13-HOU @ WAS
• Jul 17-NYM @ BAL
• Jul 20-NYM @ CIN
• Jul 23-TEX @ CWS
• Jul 24-FLA @ CHC
• Jul 29-SEA @ TEX
• Aug 01-NYM @ HOU

I've only been to a few stadiums before (Minute Maid Park, The Ballpark in Arlington, Great American Ballpark, Camden Yards), so I need a little help from the Nine Bo Jacksons community on y'alls local ballpark.  Namely, here's what I want to know about your city's ballpark:

• Is parking a pain there?  If so, what good/easy public transportation options are there?
• Do I need to buy tickets in advance, or can I show up at the stadium the day of and save the Ticketmaster convenience/BS charges?
• What's the best local beer, and is it served at the ballpark?
• Any unique food items at the ballpark?  This seems pretty good.

The trip shouldn't affect too much here at NBJ's. Thankfully, a laptop will allow me to post from pretty much anywhere.  It's going to be a fun summer.

Thoughts on the Houston Closing Situation

As Doug Brocail picked up the SV for the 'Stros in Philly tonight, I presume many are interested to know if a change is being made at the back of the Astros bullpen.  Brocail did look good - minus the one hit to J-Roll, and his fastball even touched 94.  So, why did Cecil Cooper opt for Brocail instead of Jose "Salsa" Valverde?  While much has been said about my fair city's closers and their mental issues, I think Valverde got the day off because he had a heavy workload on Tuesday night.  I don't have an exact pitch count on that, but Valverde really had to work the night before - I know because his 1 IP felt like it took 3 hours to watch.  He didn't get "benched" in the situation because of the night before.  Cecil Cooper even gave the traditional vote of confidence after the BS on Tuesday.  Brocail looked good tonight, but it's going to take a lot more than 2 BS to move Valverde from the closing gig.

Long made short: Valverde is still the CL.

Mailbag Monday

Let's try our first NBJ mailbag.  Send your questions to INWarner413@yahoo.com with "Mailbag" in the subject line, and I'll post my answers this evening.  Also, please avoid making the questions specific to your fantasy league.

Riske Vs. Rauch

NBJ reader Martin wanted to see a review of David Riske vs. Jon Rauch, and since I am a man of the people, here it is.

Brad Evans of Yahoo poached this interesting stat from Ron Shandler:

"Since 2002, an average of 12 closers or roughly 41.7 percent of those drafted in 12-team mixed leagues have failed each year. Their misadventures fostered an annual average of 11.2 new sources of saves."

As the J.J. Putz injury proved, no one is immune to the horrific attrition rate for closers.  With shaky closing situations in their bullpens, both David Riske and Jon Rauch are drawing plenty of interest amongst people speculating for saves.

In Washington, Chad Cordero is missing the first part of the season due to a shoulder injury he suffered on Sunday night.  Although he's probably returning to the team this weekend, anytime a pitcher feels a pop in their shoulders, it is cause for concern.  Furthermore, Cordero and his $6.8M salary are the subject of various trade rumors.  Should the Nats find a taker, the 6'11" Rauch would take over the closers job.  So, who is this gentle giant, and what value would he bring if he starts closing out games?

Rauch is a surviving member of the Expos.  In 2004, he was sent by the White Sox [with Gary Majewski] to Montreal for Carl Everett and a T-Rex.  Rauch has been a relief workhorse, averaging 89.1 IP the past two seasons.  He's flashed a 7.93 K/9 and a 2.75 K/BB during that time.  Given BP's projections [which included 7 saves], I had him at $3.70 in Mixed leagues and $9.50 in NL Only leagues.  What happens if he gets 30 saves?  That goes to $9.46 in Mixed leagues and $16.66 in NL Only leagues.  Basically, he'll be in the neighborhood of Bobby Jenks if he took over the gig with enough time to log 30 saves.

In Milwaukee, Eric Gagne's first blown save of the season on Monday got many people looking at the closing situation there.  After getting a $10M deal from the Brew Crew, Gagne failed to close the deal in his first chance of the year, surrendering a 3 run shot to Kosuke FOO-KOO-DOUGH-MAY [Sorry, couldn't resist].  This immediately made people think about Gagne's horrific second half with the Red Sox last year, when he had a 6.75 ERA with a 1.85 WHIP in 18.2 IP.  Although Tim Dierkes notes the long leash Gagne likely has, if Gagne isn't healthy or flat out sucks, who's next in line?

There seems to be mixed feelings about whether Derrick Turnbow or David Riske is next in line.  I think it's much more likely to be Riske, but let's look at both of them for fun.  In Mixed leagues, I currently have Riske at -$0.25 and Turnbow at -$5.78; in NL Only leagues, I have Riske at $5.16 and Turnbow at -$0.20.  What happens if they get 30 saves?  In Mixed leagues, that'd put Riske at $6.26 and Turnbow at $1.00; in NL Only leagues, that'd put Riske at $13.37 and Turnbow at $8.05.  Riske would be in the Gagne/Percival range of value, while Turnbow would be way down in the Todd Jones territory.

So, putting it all together, I'd rank the speculative saves candidates as Rauch #1, Riske #2, Turnbow #3.  Given that we aren't guaranteed a change in either situation, I wouldn't drop anything too good for any of them in Mixed leagues.

Happy Opening Day: Part 3

Although some people don't like that MLB opened up the season in Japan, I'm a fan of the system.  I think getting three opening days [March 25, 30, and 31] is like getting three Christmases, Hanukkahs, Kwanzaas, Walpurgisnachts, etc.  I won't get to watch my team until 9:05 CST, but I hope y'all have a great time watching your teams today.  Boston and Oakland fans get screwed again, first having to wake up at 6 AM EST/3 AM PST to watch Opening Day Part 1 then not getting a game on Opening Day Part 3.

Please forgive the probably terrible internet translations, but I want to say "Happy Opening Day" in all the different languages of people who have read Nine Bo Jacksons:

• Spanish: Día feliz de Apertura
• French: Le Jour heureux d'Ouverture
• German: Glückliche Öffnung Tag
• Norwegian: Glad Åpnende Dag

Time for some opening day predictions:

• AL East Winner: Boston Red Sox
• AL Central Winner: Cleveland Indians
• AL West Winner: L.A. Angels
• AL Wild Card Winner: New York Yankees
• ALCS: Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox

• NL East Winner: New York Mets
• NL Central Winner: Chicago Cubs
• NL West Winner: L.A. Dodgers
• NL Wild Card Winner: Atlanta Braves
• NLCS: New York Mets over Chicago Cubs

• World Series: Cleveland Indians over New York Mets

• AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
• NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
• AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
• NL MVP: Derrek Lee
• AL ROY: Evan Longoria
• NL ROY: Jay Bruce

BP's HACKING MASS

This is one of the funner competitions out there.  HACKING MASS stands for Huckabay's Annual Call to Keep Immobility Next to Godliness: Maximus Aggregatus Stiffisimus Sensire.  BP is going to give $399 and an autographed picture of Bud Selig to whoever can produce the worst 10 man roster [8 hitters, 2 pitchers].  You don't even have to be a subscriber to participate.  This is kind of like the anti-fantasy team.  They use a metric called ESPN (Exuded Stiff Points, Net) to quantify sucktitude. For hitters, the formula used is (.8-OPS)*PA.  For pitchers, the formula is (ERA-4.5)*IP/3.  So, it's not enough just to plain suck - they have to suck while getting playing time.  This is where the real fantasy impact of Woody Williams' release was - he'd be an All Star in this format.

My Roster:

• C: Jason Kendall
• 1B: Daniel Ortmeier
• 2B: Jose Lopez
• 3B: Melvin Mora
• SS: Adam Everett
• LF: Emil Brown
• CF: Carlos Gomez
• RF: Darin Erstad
• P: Livan Hernandez
• P: Luis Mendoza

I encourage y'all to participate.  Click here for an excel sheet with projected ESPN values.

Thoughts on Player Balance

Will Carroll's Under The Knife article from yesterday [BP subscription needed] got me thinking.  Regarding Carlos Gomez leaving a game with a hamstring cramp, he states:

"While Rickey Henderson would still have been a valuable player, even if he had Pete Incaviglia's legs, other speed players often aren't so well-rounded, making the risk of a leg injury even more dangerous to them. Gomez is a good example, with Jacoby Ellsbury, Juan Pierre, and Jose Reyes being others. While all of them have other skills, if their speed can't be used to give them range in the field and to leg out some extra singles and doubles, their value might be decimated. On the other hand, a player such as Curtis Granderson or a younger Carlos Beltran had a more rounded skill set, making them something more than a simple speed player."

While Gomez's injury doesn't appear to be significant, Carroll got me thinking about balance amongst fantasy players.  Namely, I wanted to quantify how balanced a player's overall value is.  We all know that Corey Hart, Alex Rios, and Torii Hunter are more well rounded that Carlos Gomez, Juan Pierre, and Jacoby Ellsbury.  But exactly how much more well rounded are they?

The results are here.  The first few columns aren't anything new; they simply list what a player contributes in each category.  The "Balance" column represents exactly what you'd think it represents.  A high figure means that player has a high deviation amongst his contributions, and is less balanced.  A low figure means the player has a low deviation amongst his contributions, and is well balanced.  The average player has a balance rating of 3.16.  Anything lower than that is more balanced, anything higher is less balanced.

I urge caution with the statistic, though.  One thing to note is that players of negative value can be balanced, too.  Take Rich Aurilia as a 3B at -$5.55.  He's a -$0.83 in HR, -$1.56 in R, -$0.45 in RBI, -$1.38 SB, and a -$1.32 in AVG.  He still sucks at -$5.55, but his suckiness is well rounded.  Therefore, simply drafting / picking up "well rounded" players won't guarantee anything if you get down to the Rich Aurilia's.

The most I can really say is that if you have a choice between players of similar total value, it's generally better to take the player who's more balanced.  There's only $0.50 difference between Carlos Lee and Adam Dunn; but since Lee has a balance rating of 1.93 to Dunn's 5.46, I'd take Lee.  It all depends on the needs of your team, though.  Sometimes an unbalanced "speed" player like Carlos Gomez can make sense if you loaded up on David Ortiz's early in the draft.  DVS was really helpful to me in my drafts in creating an overall balanced team; the balance figure could prove useful if you draft/evaluate with the naked eye.

Salty Demoted

Rangers C Jarrod Saltalamacchia was optioned to AAA Oklahoma today.  He went in the 6th round of my AL Only league, and was going in the late 13th round in mixed leagues.  Salty was way over valued to start with, in my opinion.  This move leaves Gerald Laird as the starting catcher in Texas, and leaves 1B all to Ben Broussard and possibly Jason Botts.  Seeing as Salty skipped AAA last season, this may be a good move for his development.

Owners of Salty are in a pickle.  Do you cut him, or wait it out?  In AL Only leagues, you might as well keep him if you spent an unwise high draft pick on him.  In mixed leagues, you really need to know your league; would he get picked up if you cut him?  Do members of your league have the patience to use a roster spot on him for (possibly) half of the season?  If you're really high on him, he may be worth eating a spot for, but that's a high price to pay in mixed leagues.  I know I'll keep an eye on his development and snatch him if a promotion appears imminent...and then I'll post about it here.