Nine Bo Jacksons

MiLB Report: AAA

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

AAA MVP: Jay Bruce - CIN [$43.87] - .363 AVG, 10 HR, 32 R, 36 RBI, 8 SB
Average Player with Positive Value: [$12.00] - .294 AVG, 5 HR, 21 R, 20 RBI, 3 SB
Replacement Level Player: Hernan Iribarren - MIL [$1.00] - .271 AVG, 0 HR, 21 R, 11 RBI, 8 SB

Best HR Source: Mike Hessman - DET [18]
Best R Source: Bradley Coon - LAA [40]
Best RBI Source: Ian Stewart - COL [42]
Best SB Source: Denard Span - MIN & Bernie Castro - NYY [14]
Best AVG Source: Terry Tiffee - LAD [73 H in 171 AB]

Thoughts:

• Jay Bruce - CIN [$43.87]
  • HR: He's tied for 6th in AAA HRs.  He's also hit 5 dingers in his past 10 games.
  • R: Bruce is 7th in AAA Rs; he's scored 12 in the past 10 games.
  • RBI: 12 RBI in the past 10 games = impressive.
  • SB: He's slowed off a little here, with only one SB in the past 10 games, but with 8 on the season, he's still exceeding expectations here.
  • AVG: Hitting .500 over the past 10 games, Bruce is leading the International League in AVG at .363 overall.
  • Conclusion: There's simply nothing left for Bruce to prove at AAA.
• Ian Stewart - COL [$41.37]
  • HR: With 12 dingers thus far, Stewart is showing the best power we've seen from him since A ball.
  • R: Stewart is also impressive here, as he's scored 12 times in the past 10 games.
  • RBI: On May 15, he drove in 6 runs, putting him at 42 on the season.
  • SB: Although his minor league career has been up and down with SBs, this year he's definitely back up.  He won't steal 40, but he could push 20.
  • AVG: A career .293 MiLB hitter, he's at .289 thus far this season.
  • Conclusion: He's completely blocked in the system, so until something moves at the big league level, he's stuck at AAA.
• Seth Smith - COL [$34.13]
  • HR: A MiLB career .500 slugger, Smith has hit 6 out of the park so far this year.
  • R: His 35 R are tied for 4th best in AAA.
  • RBI: Smith's 28 RBI aren't exactly elite, but he's certainly not a liability in this category.
  • SB: This is a much improved facet of Smith's game, as his 10 SB this season already exceed his career high [9].
  • AVG: A .311 career MiLB hitter, Smith's .329 this season is not a fluke.
  • Conclusion: There is that Matt Holliday guy in LF, and that Brad Hawpe guy in RF.  Smith has played a little CF, but the Colorado organization doesn't seem like it's going that direction.  Another blocked prospect in the Colorado organization.

AAA MVP: Dan Giese - NYY [$30.38] - 46.2 IP, 3 W, 39 SO, 0.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Average Player with Positive Value: 29 IP, 2 W, 25 SO, 2.43 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Replacement Level Player: Homer Bailey - CIN [$1.00] - 55.2 IP, 4 W, 44 SO, 3.88 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Best W Source: Eddie Bonine - DET [8]
Best SV Source: Blaine Neal - DET [14]
Best SO Source: J.A. Happ - PHI [61]
Best ERA Source: Dan Giese - NYY [46.2 IP of 0.96 ERA]
Best WHIP Source: Max Scherzer - ARI [23.0 IP of 0.65 WHIP]

Thoughts:

• Dan Giese - NYY [$30.38]
  • W: With only 3 W's thus far, I don't put too much faith in AAA W totals.
  • SO: Giese's 7.60 K/9 is respectable, but he's no Max Scherzer.
  • ERA: A very impressive stretch for Giese, only allowing 5 ER in 46.2 IP.
  • WHIP: Very impressive here as well, with a sparkling 3.9 K/BB ratio.
  • Conclusion: It's an impressive stretch, but don't bank on the 30 year old making too much of a big league impact.
• Joe Nelson - FLA [$24.10]
  • SV: Nelson has been closing out games in Albuquerque, logging 10 SV thus far.
     
  • SO: The 12.70 K/9 is very impressive.
  • ERA: A 2.22 ERA in 24.1 IP is pretty impressive as well.
  • WHIP: He's had spotty control in the past, but the BB rate is looking much better thus far.
  • Conclusion: Yeah, he's a 33 year old AAA pitcher.  It's still an impressive stretch for Nelson.
     
• Jason Motte - STL [$12.97]
  • W: A relief pitcher, Motte has picked up 2 Ws.
     
  • SO: 34 K in 20.2 IP, that's a 15.15 K/9. 
     
  • ERA: A very good stretch for Motte, he's logged 20.2 IP of 1.74 ERA.
     
  • WHIP: Motte's control is looking pretty decent, though his K rate makes any flaw in his BB rate look tiny.
     
  • Conclusion: Motte's attempting to do the reverse Rick Ankiel in the Cards organization, moving from a position gig to a pitching gig.  He'll probably get the call at some point, as every team needs bullpen help.
     

MiLB Report: AAA

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here. Please note that some players who may have already received callups to the bigs will still be included in these stat reports, as there is no way to filter them out.  This is why Max Scherzer still shows up here.

Best HR Source: Mike Hessman - DET [16]
Best R Source: Bradley Coon - LAA [35]
Best RBI Source: Brad Eldred - CWS [35]
Best SB Source: 3 Players [12]
Best AVG Source: Terry Tiffee - LAD [68 H in 155 AB]

Thoughts:

• Nelson Cruz, OF - TEX [$56.49]: He's finally starting to cool off, only hitting .229 in his last ten games.  Cruz is still having a ridiculous season, with 2 more HR and 2 more SB in his last ten.  There still doesn't seem to be much budge in the Rangers OF, so Cruz is still a wait and see.
• Jay Bruce, OF - CIN [$32.16]: Bruce continues to rake.  In a surprising and pleasing note for fantasy owners, he's stolen more bases [7] than he's hit home runs [6].  He'll be a legitimate five category contributor once he reaches the bigs.  If the Griffey/Mariners trade actually goes down, Bruce would figure to get the regular gig in Cincy.  Don't hold your breath, though.
• Andrew McCutchen, OF - PIT [$27.59]: McCutchen is still putting a great season together that will shoot him into the big leagues sooner rather than later.  Once the Pirates come down from their current success, I'd bet there will be a push to make room for the future of the franchise.
• Seth Smith, OF - COL [$24.92]: Smith has good power, not shown in his current .444 SLG.  He's a career .500 slugger, and could probably hit 15-20 HR in the big leagues right away.  The encouraging sign for fantasy owners is that Smith is running more; his 8 SB this season are only 1 away from his career high in the minors.  With Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday firmly entrenched, Smith's best case scenario for big league PT is in a part-time platoon in CF with Willy Taveras.  Even that doesn't seem likely, though.

Best W Source: Eddie Bonine - DET [7]
Best SV Source: Blaine Neal - DET [12]
Best SO Source: J.A. Happ - PHI [55]
Best ERA Source: Lance Broadway - CWS [48 IP of 1.13 ERA]
Best WHIP Source: Max Scherzer - ARI [23 IP of 0.65 WHIP]

Thoughts:

• Lance Broadway - CWS [$32.24]: Still pitching well with regards to ERA [1.13] and WHIP [0.90], Broadway's K rate has dipped all the way down to 4.88 K/9.  With the ChiSox rotation as it is, Broadway is not likely to have any immediate impact.
• David Purcey - TOR [$26.82]: The 16th overall pick in 2004, Purcey is finally delivering on what the Blue Jays thought they were drafting.  Sporting a 10.59 K/9 rate, it's not hard to imagine he'll force his way into the Toronto bullpen sooner or later.  He'll be a solid AL-only add once he makes the bigs.
• Ryan Feierabend - SEA [$23.61]: Last year's #5 prospect in the Mariners' system, Feierabend logged too many innings last year to qualify for this year's list.  Just 22 years old, he has plenty of upside.  He logged an 8.03 ERA last year, but looks like he's gotten things under control at AAA.  Feierabend won't be a K guy, but could be capable of good rate stats.
• Charlie Morton - ATL [$18.47]: His track record doesn't really show that he's likely to keep this up, but 41 IP of 1.76 ERA is still impressive.  His 7.12 career K/9 is respectable, but his 1.52 K/BB is why there's concern about his ability to keep it going.  If he does keep it up, he'd have to be considered for Atlanta's injury stricken bullpen.

MiLB Report: AAA

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.  Please note that I now list the major league affiliate for whom the player plays for.  Ex: Nelson Cruz-OF-TEX means that Nelson Cruz is an outfielder in the Rangers' farm system. 

Best HR Source: Nelson Cruz-TEX [11]
Best R Source: Nelson Cruz-TEX [32]
Best RBI Source: Nelson Cruz-TEX [32]
Best SB Source: Nelson Cruz-TEX [11]
Best AVG Source: Terry Tiffee-LAD [57 H in 122 AB]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Nelson Cruz-OF-TEX-$67.53-This is just getting ridiculous.  Cruz is leading in every category besides AVG, where he's still hitting .375.  He's been successful at AAA before, but not this successful.  There doesn't seem to be much budge in the Rangers' OF/DH group, but Cruz is doing all he can to force himself into the picture.
2. Terry Tiffee-3B-LAD-$44.82-He's a Quad-A player, but the .457 AVG is still impressive.
3. Matthew Brown-3B-LAA-$39.37-An impressive run for Brown, but the recent injuries at the big league level to Howie Kendrick and Maicer Izturis show us that he's destined to stay out of the MLB picture.
4. Mike Aviles-SS-KCR-$35.30-Quad-A.
5. Jeff Clement-C-SEA-$34.89-His performance at AAA was so impressive that he's still on this list after being called up to the bigs.  He's struggled with 14 ABs in the bigs thus far, but he'll come around.
6. Brett Carroll-OF-FLA-$32.78-Called up to the bigs when Josh Willingham got injured, Carroll doesn't appear to be in line for major PT, as he's logged 1 AB in a few games.
7. Mike Hessman-1B-DET-$32.61-Quad-A.
8. Shane Costa-OF-KCR-$32.48-He's putting up his usually great numbers at AAA, but doesn't appear to be pushing his way to the bigs anytime soon.
9. Andrew McCutchen-OF-PIT-$31.95-You may have heard of this guy.  As an 8th grader in Polk County FL, he outhit high schoolers with a .507 AVG.  As a senior, he hit .709 with 16 homers.  Just 21 years old, McCutchen has hit 6 HR and stolen 9 bases while hitting .294.  He's on his way to superstardom, and will be with the Pirates big league team at some point this season.  Lastings Milledge, Grady Sizemore, and Adam Jones are all apt comparables for the potential McCutchen has.
10. Dewayne Wise-OF-CWS-$27.81-Quad-A.

Best W Source: Eddie Bonine-DET [6]
Best SV Source: Blaine Neal-DET [11]
Best K Source: David Purcey-TOR [45]
Best ERA Source: Darrell Rasner-NYY & Nick Adenhart-LAA [31.0 IP of 0.87 ERA]
Best WHIP Source: Mike Koplove-LAD [18.1 IP of 0.44 WHIP]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Darrell Rasner-NYY-$30.17-Called up to the bigs, Rasner's stretch in AAA makes the case for a AL Only add.  He did pretty well in his first start against Seattle.
2. David Purcey-TOR-$27.02-An encouraging sign for the 16th overall pick in the 2004 draft.  He's been way to inconsistent in the past to get too excited, though.  With the Blue Jays' rotation looking pretty good, Purcey's best chance for an impact seems to be in the bullpen.
3. Max Scerzer-ARI-$23.30-Another big league callup, Scherzer lasted 4 innings,giving up 2 runs and 2 walks with 5 strikeouts in his big league debut tonight. 
4. Blaine Neal-DET-$23.23-Quad-A.
5. Brian Sanches-WAS-$22.01-Quad-A.
6. Jose Veras-NYY-$21.33-Quad-A.
7. Lance Broadway-CWS-$21.31-The White Sox's #4 prospect heading into the season, Broadway has been pretty impressive with a 1.25 ERA in 36 IP.  His K rate is a respectable 6.61 in his minor league career.  Broadway's not going to be a big impact guy, but could play into the AL Only picture if he forces his way into the big league rotation.
8. Homer Bailey-CIN-$20.33-Bailey is back in the Top 10 once more.  With the Reds not looking to impressive, Bailey could force his way into the picture in the near future if he keeps pitching this well at AAA.
9. Nick Adenhart-LAA-$20.01-Called up to the bigs, check out my breakdown on Adenhart here.
10. Shawn Camp-TOR-$19.21-Quad-A.

MiLB Report: AA

I must admit, I'm not the most well versed person on AA prospects.  I know the "big name" prospects, but not the "tweeners".  Most of them will get on my radar when they hit AAA, but there is the occassional AA to MLB transaction that occurs.  Although I won't be able to give comment about the prospects, I thought it would be useful to keep valuations for AA prospects on file.

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

The Top 10:

1. Jesus Guzman-$49.83-3B/2B-OAK
2. Freddy Guzman-$42.92-OF-DET
3. Luke Hughes-$41.77-3B-MIN
4. Mike Carp-$34.65-1B/DH-NYM
5. Chris Davis-$34.04-1B-TEX
6. Max Ramirez-$31.43-C/DH-TEX
7. Matt LaPorta-$31.38-OF-MIL
8. Luke Montz-$31.17-C-WAS
9. Mat Gamel-$30.39-3B-MIL
10. Matt Carson-$30.03-OF/DH-NYY

The Top 10:

1. Daryl Thompson-$35.54-CIN
2. Daniel McCutchen-$30.04-NYY
3. Sergio Romo-$26.22-SFG
4. Jose Vaquedano-$24.52-BOS
5. Douglas Fister-$24.16-SEA
6. Chris Jakubauskas-$23.37-SEA
7. Carlos Rosa-$22.87-KCR-
8. Chris Waters-$22.86-BAL
9. Edwin Moreno-$20.97-SDP
10. Warner Madrigal-$20.70-LAA

MiLB Report: AAA

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Nelson Cruz-$58.70-This guy is still playing out of his mind.  7 HR, 8 SB, 23 RBI, 23 R and a .364 AVG in 66 ABs.  It's good to see him running more - he only had 1 SB in 162 AAA ABs last year.  He's doing all he can to force himself into the OF picture in Texas, and Jason Botts' .158 AVG is doing him any favors either.
2. Matthew Brown-$50.98-Brown continues to mash away.  With Figgins manning the hot corner in LA, Brown is likely to stay in Salt Lake City.
3. Jeff Clement-$43.05-No one was more disappointed to hear the news of Kenji Johjima's 3 year extension than Clement and fantasy players.  His best chance for regular PT occurs at DH, where he's currently blocked by Jose Vidro, or at 1B, where he's currently blocked by Richie Sexson.  Barring a trade, I don't see a clear path to the bigs for Clement in the near future.
4. Terry Tiffee-$41.22-Quad-A.
5. Ian Stewart-$40.60-Unless Stewart learns to play 2B, he's stuck in the minors for a while.  It's a shame - he's beating the daylight out of the ball right now.
6. Brett Carroll-$40.47-With Alfredo Amezaga [.263 AVG] and Cody Ross [.149 AVG] currently manning CF for the the Fish, you'd have to think Carroll might get a look.  He hasn't consistently produced at levels like this, but he's clearly got the power potential.  At 25 years old, it's not impossible to think there's something here.
7. Mike Hessman-$37.65-Quad-A.
8. Dewayne Wise-$37.19-Quad-A.
9. Mike Aviles-$35.26-Quad-A.
10. Jay Bruce-$34.59-Qua...wait.  Not this one.  Bruce is still destroying the ball in Louisville.  He's playing most of his time in CF, and if the Jerry Hairston/Corey Patterson situation finally comes to result we all hope it will come to, Bruce will step right in and mash from Day 1.

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Darrell Rasner-$37.09-Only 3 ER in 31 IP is pretty dominant.  With a pretty set rotation in New York, his best shot is a bullpen job.  His 27 years of age don't exactly shout with upside.
2. Max Scherzer-$29.56-As mentioned earlier, he got the call up to the bigs and is worth a #1 waiver claim.
3. Justin Lehr-$24.32-Quad-A.
4. Shawn Camp-$24.20-Quad-A.
5. Jo-Jo Reyes-$23.98-1 ER in 21 IP with 24 Ks.  He's knocking on Frank Wren's door, that's for sure.
6. Nick Adenhart-$23.88-The K rate isn't exactly there yet [5.52 K/9], but he's still dominating AAA with a 0.87 ERA in 31 IP.  If his K rate approaches his previous 7.98 career mark, there's an excellent pickup if he makes the bigs.  The Angels rotation isn't exactly the most healthy one, so he'll be in consideration at some point soon.
7. Joe Nelson-$23.40-Quad-A.
8. Brian Sanches-$23.09-Quad-A.
9. Craig Hansen-$21.21-After a cup of tea in Boston, Hansen was sent back down to AAA Pawtucket.  As a reliever, he's going to be a setup man to Papelbon, at best.
10. Frank Francisco-$21.07-Quad-A.

MiLB Report

I'm going to start doing MiLB reports on Mondays.  For now, I'm just sticking to AAA but may eventually expand the scope to AA.  This should help us identify some players who could possibly force their way into the big league picture.

One important thing to note is that the hitter valuations can be a little funky.  Basically, catchers are little overvalued for this post because there's only 19 of them in the database.  I think I identified the problem and will fix it for the next post.

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Best HR Source: Fernando Tatis [8]
Best RBI Source: Matthew Brown [19]
Best R Source: Matthew Brown & Bradley Croon [20]
Best SB Source: Emilio Bonifacio [8]
Best AVG Source: Terry Tiffee [33 H in 65 AB]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Matthew Brown-$47.81-A former 10th round pick in '01, Brown is absolutely raking.  This is his second go-round of AAA, and his past performance [.269/.343/.460] doesn't exactly jump out. He hasn't made Baseball America's Top 30 prospect list in the past two years.  I wouldn't expect much if he gets a call up.
   
2. Jeff Clement-$42.43-Although a reader mentioned the M's tendency to stick with veterans, I still want to think of the "what if" scenario.  Johjima is hitting .196/.262/.250 in 56 ABs, while Clement is hitting .393/.521/.696 in the same number of ABs.  Clement already had 700 ABs at AAA before this year, but the numbers he's producing right now can't be denied.  This is one of the more interesting scenarios to watch right now.  He was #33 on BP's Top 100 prospect list; if he gets the call, he's a must add in all formats.
3. Nelson Cruz-$39.34-Cruz struggled in 307 MLB ABs last year, so he was sent back to AAA where he's already had 754 ABs.  BP's essentially labeled him a Quad-A player, and this year may be his last chance to prove otherwise.  The Rangers have a logjam in the OF and at DH, though.
4. George Kottaras-$38.83-His value is partially elevated because of the aforementioned error with catcher calculations.  Regardless, he's already hit 5 HRs this year, with his previous career high being 11 in a season.  He dropped off of most prospect radars this past offseason, so don't expect much.
5. Dewayne Wise-$37.80-He's a 30 year old Quad-A player, plain and simple. 
6. Bradley Coon-$32.87-Coon has already swiped 6 bases, but has been caught 4 times.  His career success rate is 72%, not that elite.  Stealing bases is pretty much his only tool, and with the OF logjam in LA, look for him to remain in AAA.
7. Terry Tiffee-$32.78-His .508 AVG is ridiculous, but he's been at AAA since '04 and has actually regressed along the way.  He's had a cup of tea in the bigs, and his performance there has justified his placement in AAA.
8. Nick Hundley-$28.40-Hundley dropped 16 spots from '07 to '08 in Baseball America's prospect rankings for the Pods.  He hit 20 HRs last year, but his ceiling is that of a backup catcher in the bigs.
9. Jacob Fox-$27.97-Fox has hit 21 and 24 HRs in the minors the past two seasons.  His power is legit, but that's about it.  He's viewed as an "emergency catcher" if he were on a big league roster.
10. Ian Stewart-$27.81-He's slugging .567 in 60 ABs, which is an encouraging sign.   He was tried out at 2B, but failed badly there.  Stewart's obviously blocked by Atkins and Helton at the cornerstone, so don't expect him to get full time PT in the bigs until something changes there.

Best W Source: Doug Mathis [4]
Best SV Source: Joe Nelson & Jose Arredondo [7]
Best K Source: Max Scherzer [29]
Best ERA Source: Max Scherzer [17 IP of 0.00 ERA]
Best WHIP Source: Brian Sanches [9 IP of 0.11 WHIP]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Max Scherzer-$34.45-Everyone has him profiled as a closer in the bigs, but I guess he didn't get that memo.  He's had 17 scoreless innings with 29 Ks thus far as a starter.  He'll force his way into the picture soon enough, and should be a great waiver claim.
2. Brian Sanches-$31.01-With a fastball that's stuck in the 80 MPH range, he's got a limited ceiling as a 29 year old reliever.  He's pitched 9 IP of scoreless ball with 15 Ks, but don't expect that to keep up.
3. Shawn Camp-$30.65-Camp's a Quad-A pitcher, plain and simple.  10 scoreless innings is nice, though. 
4. Frank Francisco-$27.11-9 scoreless IP with 16 Ks from the 28 year old.  Not too shabby, but his ceiling is extremely limited.
5. Homer Bailey-$26.36-You may have heard of this guy. His 5.52 K/9 leaves much to be desired, but his career mark in the minors is 9.40, so I'd expect that to rise.  He's going to make it into the rotation at some point, it's just a matter of time.
6. Justin Lehr-$20.96-A 30 year old who has been at AAA since 2003.  Quite a limited ceiling.
7. Darrell Rasner-$20.47-A former second rounder for the Expos is pitching well in the minors, like he always has.  You'd think he'll force his way into the Yankees' bullpen at some point.
8. Craig Hansen-$20.21-He's putting up pretty good numbers with 11 IP of scoreless ball and 11 Ks.  He's likely to force his way into the Red Sox bullpen sooner or later.
9. Bobby Korecky-20.17-Quad A.
10. Jo-Jo Reyes-$20.01-He's well on his way to getting the call back up to the bigs.  He's put up good to great numbers at each level, and if he keeps doing well at AAA, he'll make for an interesting fantasy add.  Reyes is just 23, so time is on his side.