Nine Bo Jacksons

DVS Updated

DVS has been updated to include Tim's latest projections and updated ADPs.  Click here to download it.

DVS has been updated to include Tim's latest projections and updated ADPs.  Click here to download it.

The Dynamic Valuation System

Nine Bo Jacksons reader Jordan Lyall recently sent me an email containing a spreadsheet he designed that merged live scoring with IPDS' categorical dollar values.  His spreadsheet tracked the dollar values for players as they were selected by each team, and also provided a comparative analysis of all the teams in the draft.  The live scoring was helpful because it showed what holes my team was developing as I was drafting, and made me give certain players a longer look.  As an example, around round 14 in a mock I was doing, I noticed that I was significantly behind the other teams in stolen base values [a common characteristic of my teams].  That certainly made me look longer at Willy Taveras, who helped to bridge the gap in that category.

Jordan's spreadsheet pushed me to create what I'm referring to as the Dynamic Valuation System [DVS].  The logic is very similar to what Jordan created, but I made a few modifications.  Instead of tracking teams by their total categorical dollar values, I thought that DVS should track teams by their actual statistics - providing real time statistical standings.  Furthermore, I wanted to quantify a concept I knew existed for a while.  In the previous example, I knew Willy Taveras would help me in SBs, Rs, and AVG, but I wanted to know if those gains would outweigh the loss I would take in HRs and RBIs. I used a concept that many who are familiar with Art McGee know about: standings gain points.  To quantify this, I calculated what place in each category my team would be with Willy Taveras, and subtracted the points I already had in those categories.  For example (using made up numbers), I calculated that he would move me from 5th place in steals to 10th place, meaning it was a +5 gain in that category.  I did this for each of the categories, and used the sum of those values to represent his SGP value: how many points would Willy Taveras move me up in the standings?  I would then look at other players and decide which player would get me more points in the standings. 

In the few mocks I've done with DVS thus far, it's helped me prevent a problem of mine: statistical overdrafting.  I tend to be dominant in the rate stats, and lack in power and other counting stats.  DVS has helped me correct that by telling me that adding another .300 hitter in the 17th round doesn't help my team if I'm already in 1st place in that category.  You don't receive a 13th point for having an average .010 higher than 2nd place, so don't draft that .300 hitter if you can gain more points by drafting Khalil Greene, whose power numbers will help more than his AVG will hurt (in that situation).

When you open DVS, you'll notice a few things.  For one, it is much smaller than IPDS was - this one weighs in at a lean 12.5 MB.  Also, it is 100% macro free, which means that a lot of the problems some of y'all had with IPDS will be nonexistent.  Instead, it uses autofiltering, much like Tim Dierkes' RotoAuthority projection sheets.

So, how do you use this thing?

• When you open DVS, you'll go to the 'TeamNames' tab.  Here, you'll input the names of all the teams in your league.  This is important in tracking the picks as the draft goes along.
• Once you've inputted all the team names, go over to the 'DraftSheet' tab.  By default, you'll only see six columns.  You can unhide the columns to reveal each players statistics and categorical SGP data.  I set it to six columns in order to keep all of the vital information on my small screen at the same time.  You can expand and contract it as you'd like.
• As each player is selected, click on their corresponding cell in the "Drafted By:" column.  Click the arrow that will show up, and click the name of the team who selected the player.  It is absolutely vital that you do this correctly.  If you don't, the standings and SGP data will be thrown off.
• On the 'Standings' tab, you get...you guessed it, the current standings of your draft.  Also, you get the actual statistics below the standings board.  The 'Hcount' and 'Pcount' will track how many hitters and pitchers have been selected by each time.
• When drafting players, I wholeheartedly encourage you to learn how to use the AutoFilters.  Although I don't have time to give a tutorial, I can tell you that learning how to use them makes a big difference.  As an example, if you're down to the last 3 rounds and only need to see catchers and relief pitchers, autofiltering can do that for you.

Now, time for a few warnings.

• By default, you'll notice that every hitter has a SGP value of 55.  Why does A.J. Pierzynski have the same SGP value as A-Rod before any player has been selected?  Because even A.J.'s .266 AVG, 14 HR, 55 R, 58 RBI and 1 SB will move your team to first place in all of those categories, as they are all better than the 0 that the rest of the league has.
• You'll also notice that the starting pitchers have a SGP value of 22 when you start up.  Why?  Because even Johan Santana's 3.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP is going to be "worse" than the 0.00's that the rest of the league has.  This leads me to...
• Don't get carried away with SGP data early on.  Given the actual nature of drafts, you won't get good use out of SGP data early on, as evidenced by the A.J. Pierzynski example.  Draft with dollar values, ADP, or gut feelings early on.  The SGP data really makes the difference in rounding out your team after round 10; not creating it from round 1.
• If players have the same SGP value, use the dollar values as the tiebreaker.  You may find yourself in an interesting situation where a -$10.00 pitcher will have the same SGP value as a $4.00 pitcher.  It's unlikely, but possible.  Do the smart thing and take the player with the higher dollar value.
• I recommend keeping the sheet sorted by ascending ADP.  This helps you avoid drafting someone 5 rounds before you should.  As a general rule, I'll only reach one round for a player in rounds 1-3, two rounds for a player in rounds 4-10, and three rounds from 11-20.  I look at players who are likely to be undrafted in rounds 21-23.
• Use DVS in a few mock drafts before your actual drafts.  This way, you'll be used to it if you use it on draft day.  It can really make a difference if you know how to use it properly.
• Even if you declare the SGP concept to be bunk, DVS still functions as a live scoring spreadsheet.

And, before anyone asks - it is unlikely I'll be able to accommodate other options into DVS.  This means I probably won't be able to develop one that includes the things that IPDS does [league types, sizes, roster configurations, etc].  I wish I had the time, but all of my drafts are either Friday or Saturday, and I need some time to do personal preparation for those.  Also, since the University of Houston is on spring break, I'm looking to throw some baseballs and work on my breaking ball this week.

An extra special thanks goes out to Jordan Lyall and his great work.  Without it, DVS wouldn't have happened.  Without any further delay, click here to download DVS.  Please pass along the word about Nine Bo Jacksons - prepping for the draft is only the beginning the great season I'm planning on writing about here.