Nine Bo Jacksons

Draft Theory: All Stick No Pitch

This post is part of a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a strategy that will yield the most value, as measured by Team Score.  I do not state that this particular theory is the best; I am merely attempting to find out what a team looks like when this strategy is used.  Eventually, there will be a review of all of the strategies with data in place to evaluate which was the most successful.

The following roster was assembled without regards to position scarcity or ADP.  My goal: get the best hitters possible using picks one through fourteen, and then get the best pitchers with the remaining picks. 

Position: Player Name [Round Selected]
C: Geovany Soto [13]
C: J.R. Towles [14]
1B: Albert Pujols [1]
2B: Robinson Cano [7]
3B: Aramis Ramirez [3]
SS: Jhonny Peralta [12]
OF: Nick Markakis [4]
OF: Matt Kemp [6]
OF: Jeff Francoeur [8]
OF: Delmon Young [9]
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury [10]
MI: Placido Polanco [11]
CI: Garrett Atkins [5]
UT: David Ortiz [2]

Team Average Batter: 20.43 HR, 83.64 R, 85.00 RBI, 8.86 SB, .296 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 1.03 HR, 1.04 R, 1.10 RBI, 0.87 SB, 1.05 AVG= 5.10 Offensive Points [-1.93 than Max, +0.10 than Average, +1.07 than Replacement Level]

P: Pedro Martinez [15]
P: Greg Maddux [20]
P: Rich Harden [21]
P: Curt Schilling [22]
P: Hiroki Kuroda [23]
P: Jonathan Broxton [16]
P: Rafael Betancourt [17]
P: B.J. Ryan [18]
P: Heath Bell [19]

Team Average Pitcher: 7.5 W, 4.1 SV, 93.7 [7.53 K/9], 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP [3.21 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 0.89 W, 0.47 SV, 0.84 SO, 1.02 ERA, 1.03 WHIP= 4.24 Pitching Points [-2.56 than Max, -0.76 than Average, +0.43 than Replacement Level]

Total Team Points: 9.34 Points [-4.54 than Max, -0.66 than Average, +1.45 than Replacement Level]
Team Score [% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 24.16

Thoughts:

• When we focus solely on hitting, we get 5.10 offensive points.  When we focus solely on pitching, we get 4.44 points.  By focusing solely on hitting, we gain 0.66 points.
• When we focus solely on pitching, we get 6.53 pitching points.  When we focus solely on hitting, we get 4.24 pitching points.  By focusing solely on pitching, we gain 2.29 points.

From these numbers, your team would be better off focusing picks 1-9 on pitching than it would be focusing picks 1-14 on hitting.  However, simply drafting the players with the most value (regardless of position) yields 1.41 more team points than focusing picks 1-9 on pitching. This amount is incredibly marginal though, and probably a result of a change in the actions of the other people who were drafting.  Regardless, I think we can safely eliminate dedicating picks 1-14 solely on hitting, as it is the worse of the three theories we've tried, and worse by a significant margin.  Next up in our series: the author finally gets some sleep. ;-)

This post is part of a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a strategy that will yield the most value, as measured by Team Score.  I do not state that this particular theory is the best; I am merely attempting to find out what a team looks like when this strategy is used.  Eventually, there will be a review of all of the strategies with data in place to evaluate which was the most successful.

The following roster was assembled without regards to position scarcity or ADP.  My goal: get the best hitters possible using picks one through fourteen, and then get the best pitchers with the remaining picks. 

Position: Player Name [Round Selected]
C: Geovany Soto [13]
C: J.R. Towles [14]
1B: Albert Pujols [1]
2B: Robinson Cano [7]
3B: Aramis Ramirez [3]
SS: Jhonny Peralta [12]
OF: Nick Markakis [4]
OF: Matt Kemp [6]
OF: Jeff Francoeur [8]
OF: Delmon Young [9]
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury [10]
MI: Placido Polanco [11]
CI: Garrett Atkins [5]
UT: David Ortiz [2]

Team Average Batter: 20.43 HR, 83.64 R, 85.00 RBI, 8.86 SB, .296 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 1.03 HR, 1.04 R, 1.10 RBI, 0.87 SB, 1.05 AVG= 5.10 Offensive Points [-1.93 than Max, +0.10 than Average, +1.07 than Replacement Level]

P: Pedro Martinez [15]
P: Greg Maddux [20]
P: Rich Harden [21]
P: Curt Schilling [22]
P: Hiroki Kuroda [23]
P: Jonathan Broxton [16]
P: Rafael Betancourt [17]
P: B.J. Ryan [18]
P: Heath Bell [19]

Team Average Pitcher: 7.5 W, 4.1 SV, 93.7 [7.53 K/9], 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP [3.21 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 0.89 W, 0.47 SV, 0.84 SO, 1.02 ERA, 1.03 WHIP= 4.24 Pitching Points [-2.56 than Max, -0.76 than Average, +0.43 than Replacement Level]

Total Team Points: 9.34 Points [-4.54 than Max, -0.66 than Average, +1.45 than Replacement Level]
Team Score [% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 24.16

Thoughts:

• When we focus solely on hitting, we get 5.10 offensive points.  When we focus solely on pitching, we get 4.44 points.  By focusing solely on hitting, we gain 0.66 points.
• When we focus solely on pitching, we get 6.53 pitching points.  When we focus solely on hitting, we get 4.24 pitching points.  By focusing solely on pitching, we gain 2.29 points.

From these numbers, your team would be better off focusing picks 1-9 on pitching than it would be focusing picks 1-14 on hitting.  However, simply drafting the players with the most value (regardless of position) yields 1.41 more team points than focusing picks 1-9 on pitching. This amount is incredibly marginal though, and probably a result of a change in the actions of the other people who were drafting.  Regardless, I think we can safely eliminate dedicating picks 1-14 solely on hitting, as it is the worse of the three theories we've tried, and worse by a significant margin.  Next up in our series: the author finally gets some sleep. ;-)

Draft Theory: All Pitch No Stick

This post is part of a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a strategy that will yield the most value, as measured by Team Score.  I do not state that this particular theory is the best; I am merely attempting to find out what a team looks like when this strategy is used.  Eventually, there will be a review of all of the strategies with data in place to evaluate which was the most successful.

The following roster was assembled without regards to position scarcity or ADP.  My goal: get the best pitchers possible using picks one through nine, and then get the best batters with the remaining picks.  Note: Although the roster looks similar to the one assembled under the "Ignore Position Scarcity and ADP" theory, the method used for this draft was different.  In the previous theory, I merely drafted by total value regardless of whether the player was a pitcher or a hitter.  In this theory, I did not draft a single hitter until I filled all of my pitching slots.

Position: Player Name [Round Selected]
C: Bengie Molina [22]
C: Carlos Ruiz [23]
1B: Joey Votto [11]
2B: Freddy Sanchez [18]
3B: Edwin Encarnacion [13]
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt [21]
OF: Matt Kemp [10]
OF: Jay Bruce [12]
OF: Josh Hamilton [15]
OF: Justin Upton [17]
OF: Jose Guillen [19]
MI: Ty Wigginton [20]
CI: Mark Reynolds [14]
UT: Evan Longoria [16]

Team Average Batter: 18.29 HR, 69.43 R, 71.79 RBI, 7.36 SB, .280 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 0.92 HR, 0.87 R, 0.93 RBI, 0.72 SB, 1.00 AVG= 4.44 Offensive Points [-2.59 than Max, -0.56 than Average, +0.41 than Replacement Level]

P: Johan Santana [1]
P: Jake Peavy [2]
P: Brandon Webb [3]
P: Tim Lincecum [4]
P: C.C. Sabathia [5]
P: Mariano Rivera [6]
P: Huston Street [7]
P: Billy Wagner [8]
P: Matt Capps [9]

Team Average Pitcher: 10.7 W, 15.5 SV, 143.0 K [8.55 K/9], 3.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP [3.59 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 1.27 W, 1.73 SV, 1.28 SO, 1.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP= 6.53 Pitching Points [-0.27 than Max, +1.53 than Average, +2.72 than Replacement Level]

Total Team Points: 10.97 Points [-2.91 than Max, +0.97 than Average, +3.08 than Replacement Level]
Team Score [% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 51.42

Thoughts: Placing picks one through nine only on pitching resulted in a loss of 1.41 team points.  Yes, the pitching staff remained the same, but taking Capps in Round 9 instead of waiting until Round 11 cost us. Lets see if its anything different with focusing on hitting first - that post is coming right up.

Draft Theory: The All-Star Team

This post is part of a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a strategy that will yield the most value, as measured by Team Score. 

This particular post will focus on assembling a team comprised of the best players at each position.  This team in obviously unachieveable, as there is no chance that you'll be able to obtain the best player at each position.  Regardless, just as we've defined the replacement value team, we will now define the maximum level team.  As this series progresses, our goal will be to come as close to the maximum team value as possible.

Position: Player Name [ADP]
C: Victor Martinez [29.21]
C: Russell Martin [29.99]
1B: Albert Pujols [9.25]
2B: Chase Utley [8.00]
3B: Alex Rodriguez [1.03]
SS: Hanley Ramirez [2.69]
OF: Matt Holliday [5.76]
OF: Vladimir Guerrero [22.09]
OF: Alfonso Soriano [13.10]
OF: Carlos Lee [22.99]
OF: Carl Crawford [12.90]
MI: Jose Reyes [3.78]
CI: David Wright [3.70]
UT: David Ortiz [17.47]

Team Average Batter: 27.71 HR, 102.64 R, 98.43 RBI, 20.36 SB, .302 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 1.39 HR, 1.28 R, 1.28 RBI, 2.01 SB, 1.08 AVG=7.03 Offensive Points [+2.03 than Average, +3.00 than Replacement

Level]

P: Johan Santana [11.76]
P: Jake Peavy [20.00]
P: Brandon Webb [38.16]
P: Tim Lincecum [118.27]
P: C.C. Sabathia [51.07]
P: Jonathan Papelbon [43.57]
P: J.J. Putz [50.03]
P: Joe Nathan [54.43]
P: Mariano Rivera [98.21]

Team Average Pitcher: 10.68 W, 17.40 SV, 144.00 SO [8.73 K/9], 3.11 ERA, 1.11 WHIP [3.60 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 1.26 W, 1.95 SV, 1.28 SO, 1.18 ERA, 1.12 WHIP=6.80 Pitching Points [+1.80 than Average, +2.99 than Replacement Level]

Total Team Points: 13.88 Points [+3.88 than Average,+5.99 than Replacement Level]
Team Score [% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 100

Thoughts: This is what we should be shooting for.  Good luck getting all of these guys, though.  We've proven we can assemble a pitching staff that comes close to maximum value [only -0.27 less]; next, we'll try to get as close to the best offense we can.  If these numbers and ADPs tell me anything, it's that getting that kind of offense is going to be a lot harder than getting that kind of pitching staff.

Draft Theory: Ignore Position Scarcity and ADP

This post is part of a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a strategy that will yield the most value, as measured by Team Score.  I do not state that this particular theory is the best; I am merely attempting to find out what a team looks like when this strategy is used.  Eventually, there will be a review of all of the strategies with data in place to evaluate which was the most successful.

I've decided on a new way of evaluating these theories.  As an example, if league average is 20 HR per player, and my team averages 20 HR per player, I'll receive a 1.0 for HRs [20/20=1].  If my team averages 30 HRs, I'll receive a 1.5 [30/20=1.5].  If my team averages 10 HRs, I'll receive a 0.5 [10/20=1.5].  Therefore, a perfectly average team with have a total team score of 10.0 [1.0 x 10 Categories = 10.0].  Our goal should be to far surpass league average (10.0), as being average won't win championships.  I know that this method of evaluation is not perfect, but a perfect method of evaluation (placing the projections of my team against the projections of 11 different teams) would take far too much time.  This method should still provide a decent way of evaluating which is the best drafting method.

The following roster was assembled without any regards to position scarcity or ADP data.  I simply drafted the player with the highest $ value.  I had pick #9 in this draft.

Position: Player Name [Round Selected]
C: Bengie Molina [22]
C: Carlos Ruiz [23]
1B: Todd Helton [10]
2B: Freddy Sanchez [19]
3B: Edwin Encarnacion [14]
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt [21]
OF: Matt Kemp [9]
OF: Jay Bruce [13]
OF: Josh Hamilton [16]
OF: Josh Willingham [17]
OF: Justin Upton [18]
MI: Ty Wigginton [20]
CI: Joey Votto [12]
UT: Mark Reynolds [15]

Team Average Batter: 18.21 HR, 70.43 R, 72.29 RBI, 7.43 SB, .282 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 0.92 HR, 0.88 R, 0.94 RBI, 0.73 SB, 1.00 AVG=4.47 Offensive Points [-2.56 than Max, -0.53 than Average, +0.44 than Replacement Level]

P: Johan Santana [1]
P: Jake Peavy [2]
P: Brandon Webb [3]
P: Tim Lincecum [4]
P: C.C. Sabathia [5]
P: Mariano Rivera [6]
P: Huston Street [7]
P: Billy Wagner [8]
P: Matt Capps [11]

Team Average Pitcher: 10.78 W, 15.44 SV, 143.00 SO [8.55 K/9], 3.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP [3.58 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 1.28 W, 1.73 SV, 1.28 SO, 1.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP=6.54 Pitching Points [-0.27 than Max, +1.54 than Average, +2.73 than Replacement Level]

Total Team Points: 11.01 Points [-2.83 than Max, +1.01 than Average, +3.17 than Replacement Level]

Team Score [% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 52.83

Thoughts: Damn, what a pitching staff.  I got each of my top 5 ranked SPs, and my #3, #5, #6, and #10 ranked RPs.  The only way to improve this staff was to replace Street, Wagner, and Capps with Papelbon, Putz, and Nathan.  Even then, the gain is marginal [0.27 points].  The offense was mediocre, below average in every category but batting average.  A good lesson learned here is that it is nearly possible to get the best pitching staff [-0.27 than Max]; obtaining the best hitters will be our next task.

Why shouldn't this theory be used?  Not accounting for position scarcity is one reason.  Bengie Molina and Carlos Ruiz isn't the greatest catching tandem.  Also, ignoring ADP data wasn't too smart.  Sure, Lincecum looks like an absolute beast with a projected 3.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 13 Wins and 196 K in 190 IPs; but why take him in the 4th round when you can take him in the 10th, and use that 4th round pick elsewhere?

Next up in our series of drafting theories: obtaining the best hitters possible.

Draft Theory: The All-Undrafted Team

The following roster is assembled only with players expected to remain undrafted in a 12-team league.  In a future post, I'll discuss how to adjust draft rankings with these players in mind.  These players will essentially become the new replacement level players by which the rest of their peers will be valued.

Also, this post is the first in a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a theory that will yield the most value, as measured by Total Team Points

I've decided on a new way of evaluating these theories.  As an example, if league average is 20 HR per player, and my team averages 20 HR per player, I'll receive a 1.0 for HRs [20/20=1].  If my team averages 30 HRs, I'll receive a 1.5 [30/20=1.5].  If my team averages 10 HRs, I'll receive a 0.5 [10/20=1.5].  Therefore, a perfectly average team with have a total team score of 10.0 [1.0 x 10 Categories = 10.0].  Our goal should be to far surpass league average (10.0), as being average won't win championships. I know that this method of evaluation is not perfect, but a perfect method of evaluation (placing the projections of my team against the projections of 11 different teams) would take far too much time.  This method should still provide a decent way of evaluating which is the best drafting method..

C-Carlos Ruiz [$8.05]
C-Ronny Paulino [$6.04]
1B-Conor Jackson [$1.99]
2B-Freddy Sanchez [$6.25]
3B-Mark Reynolds [$5.89]
SS-Yuniesky Betancourt [-$1.85]
OF-Felix Pie [$3.75]
OF-Austin Kearns [$2.02]
OF-David DeJesus [$1.73]
OF-Lastings Milledge [$1.27]
OF-Mark Teahen [$1.09]
MI-Mark Ellis [$2.10]
CI-Mike Jacobs [-$1.43]
UT-Billy Butler [$7.48]
Total Hitting Value: $44.38

Team Average Batter: 14.21 HR, 68.86 R, 66.07 RBI, 6.14 SB, .279 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 0.71 HR, 0.86 R, 0.86 RBI, 0.60 SB, 0.99 AVG=4.03 Offensive Points [-3.00 than Max, -0.97 than Average]

P-Greg Maddux [$7.91]
P-Hiroki Kuroda [$3.61]
P-Kevin Slowey [$3.56]
P-Shawn Hill [$0.87]
P-Chuck James [$0.34]
P-Rafael Betancourt [$11.04]
P-Bob Howry [$7.13]
P-Cla Meredith [$6.21]
P-Aaron Heilman [$5.46]
Total Pitching Value: $46.13

Team Average Pitcher: 7.67 W, 1.78 SV, 84.67 SO [6.30 K/9], 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.84 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 0.91 W, 0.20 SV, 0.76 SO, 0.95 ERA, 1.00 WHIP=3.81 Pitching Points [-3.00 than Max, -1.19 than Average]

Total Team Points: 7.84 Points [-6.00 than Max, -2.16 than Average]
Team Score [% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 0 [Replacement Level]

Thoughts: I came pretty close with the rate stats, even tying league average WHIP.  I'll have to make some changes for future draft theories based upon the fact that rate stats are going to be easier to replace than other stats like SBs and SVs.  All in all, I actually think this team wouldn't be last place.  There's always that Cincinnati Reds homer in your league who thinks Ryan Freel is due for a 30/30 season.