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Buy or Sell?

April 11, 2008

Buy Or Sell?

Time for the first installment of Buy or Sell.  In this, I'll list a few under achievers and over achievers at each position, and give a verdict on them.  The dollar value listed after the player's name is their current value.

Catchers:

  • A.J. Pierzynski: $31.24 - Sell.  He's a good fantasy C, but not $31.24 good.
  • Kenji Johjima:  -$13.75 - Sell.  2 for 25 to start the season isn't a good sign, and with Jeff Clement waiting in the wings, a switch may occur soon.
  • Brian McCann: $24.35 - Buy.  Some were hesitant about McCann because of his troubling '07.  He's off to a great start and should rebound just fine.
  • Jorge Posada: -$5.84 - Buy. Going 3 for 17 and having injury concerns may cause some owners to pull the rip cord too soon.  Posada will rebound, but not to his '07 level.

1st Basemen:

  • Carlos Delgado: $14.25 - Sell.  He's hitting .357 right now; his value only goes down from here.
  • Jason Giambi: -$15.98 - Sell.  As if you didn't know, Giambi is in decline.  If he keeps this up, look for the Yanks to make a deal for a 1B and bench their $21M liability.
  • Derrek Lee: $21.72 - Buy. Lee won't return to his .662 SLG from '05, but it seems like he's bound to exceed expectations this year.
  • Prince Fielder: $3.72 - Buy. Some owners are going to be troubled by his lack of HRs thus far.  Take advantage of their quick trigger finger, probably caused by their fear of vegetarianism.

2nd Basemen:

  • Jose Lopez: $26.10 - Sell.  This is the peak of his value, obviously.
  • Luis Castillo: -$7.17 - Sell. Castillo's 4 year deal was a mistake in real life, and having him in fantasy this year is a mistake too.
  • Aaron Hill: $20.98 - Buy.  No, he's not $20.98 good, but he's a popular sleeper and is justifying the hype thus far.
  • Robinson Cano: -$16.39 - Buy.  You may want to wait until the ASB, but Cano is a notoriously terrible 1st half player.  He'll frustrate some owners to no end; take advantage.

3rd Basemen:

  • Joe Crede: $30.37 - Sell.  Seeing him healthy is a good sign, but this is his peak value.
  • Mike Lowell: -$18.36 - Sell.  Not performing + injuries = anticipated decline.
  • Mark Reynolds: $40.02 - Buy.  Nope, he's not $40.02 good once his AVG regresses, but the dude is having a breakout season.
  • Edwin Encarnacion: -$14.74 - Buy.  Quite the under achiever, Encarnacion will be a solid 3B with good upside.

Shortstops:

  • Yunel Escobar: $17.52 - Sell.  He's got a ceiling that just makes it impossible to maintain this value.
  • Michael Young: -$5.55 - Sell.  Decline is in order for Young, whose ceiling wasn't that great to begin with.
  • Jeff Keppinger: $28.90 - Buy.  No, he's not $28.90 good, but his good play should solidify his PT.  He's a great add if you have deficiencies in AVG.
  • J.J. Hardy: -$9.27 - Buy.  I think he was still suffering from illness to start the season, which has decreased his value.  Pounce.

Outfielders:

  • Corey Patterson: $33.96 - Sell.  He's the #1 fantasy OF - sell on him while he still is.
  • Xavier Nady: $30.55 - Sell.  X-Nad's peaked pretty early.
  • Andruw Jones: -$20.43 - Sell.  Jones is continuing his slump from last season, and being dropped in the order accordingly.  Not good signs for a guy who is literally the worst fantasy OF right now.
  • Johnny Damon: -$11.96 - Sell.  Decline!
  • Nate McLouth: $31.85 - Buy.  He's making me eat my hat with a pretty awesome breakout season.
  • Justin Upton: $18.81 - Buy.  Upton will miss being classified as a Rookie by 10 ABs - if he were a rook, you're looking at the ROY here.
  • Shane Victorino: -$11.15 - Buy.  Victorino will rebound, I assure you.
  • Matt Kemp: -$8.08 - Buy. His slow start is painful, but rest assured - he's a 5 cat stud.

Starting Pitchers:

  • Dana Eveland: $19.21 - Sell.  I think he's capable of having positive value, but his K rate will decline significantly.
  • Micah Owings: $18.33 - Sell.  Very similar to Eveland - he'll be good, but not this good.  Too bad his batting stats don't count.
  • Andrew Miller: -$48.71 - Sell.  Literally the worst SP in the game, Miller was a guy who I thought would have a decent shot of producing this year.  Not the first time I've been wrong.
  • Roy Oswalt: -$36.88 - Sell.  He was at -$36.88 before tonight's shalacking.  His fastball doesn't have the heat it used to have; as an Astros fan, I'm sad to say he's declining badly.
  • Rich Harden: $14.81 - Buy.  The injury is going to cause his owners to freak.  Take advantage, but don't bank on anything more than 100 IP.
  • Hiroki Kuroda: $4.68 - Buy.  He's going to produce some pretty good rate stats; don't bank on the Ks, though.
  • C.C. Sabathia: -$33.59 - Buy.  Sabathia has been remarkably terrible.  Unlike with Roy O, I'm buying that Sabathia will rebound to cash in next season.
  • Javier Vazquez: -$8.87 - Buy.  Not the greatest start, but he's still an ace.

Relief Pitchers:

  • Jason Isringhausen: $26.94 - Sell.  He's already logged 5 saves, but I don't think he can keep up his dominance all season.
  • Mariano Rivera: $17.22 - Sell.  Decline is order for a sure fire HOF'er.  Cash in while you can.
  • Al Reyes: -$25.21 - Sell.  Percival has looked good, and with Reyes' pending legal troubles, who knows whats going to happen.
  • Joe Borowski: -$21.11 - Sell.  Drafting him was a mistake in the first place.  He does have a decent 3.04...oh wait, that's his WHIP.  That's not good.
  • Joakim Soria: $26.43 - Buy.  One of the better Rule 5 picks in recent memory is developing into a stud.
  • Joba Chamberlain: $12.80 - Buy.  Even out of the pen, Joba is proving to be of pretty good value.  Once he moves to the rotation, your investment will really pay off.
  • Huston Street: -$14.91 - Buy.  Street will rebound from his rocky opening; he looked darn good against the Tribe tonight.
  • Manny Corpas: -$0.96 - Buy.  Not a great start for Corpas or the Rockies, but I think at least the former will recover.