Position Review: 1st Base

Please note: These valuations do not include data from last night's [5/12] games.

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Average 1B with Positive Value: 130 AB, .281 AVG, 7 HR,  21 R, 24 RBI, 1 SB

Best HR Source: Lance Berkman [12]
Best R Source: Lance Berkman [40]
Best RBI Source: Lance Berkman [36]
Best SB Source: Lance Berkman [6]
Best AVG Source: Lance Berkman [52 H in 136 AB]

Thoughts:

• Lance Berkman - HOU [$53.52]: I know I said I wouldn't rave about players who we all know are good, but Berkman has been historically good.  Berkman is 25 for his last 39, hitting .641/.689/1.205 in the month of May.  That's a 1.894 OPS.  It's only ten games, but I'm still impressed.  Enjoy the ride; I sure am.  Buy.
• Kevin Youkilis - BOS [$27.77]: This is a very impressive stretch for Youk.  He's on pace for a .322 AVG, 32 HR, 109 R, 122 RBI, and 8 SB.  He's currently slugging .596; the only time he's ever slugged over .453 is in 152 AB at AAA Pawtucket in 2005.  Unless he was due for a power surge at age 29, I think Youk is in way over his head at this value.  Sell.
• Miguel Cabrera - DET [$7.17]: What's up with Miggy?  His walk rate is a nice 11.25%, but his contact rate is down to 80.58%, resulting in a .252 AVG.  I really don't know how to explain why he's only a $7 player, but Jim Leyland thinks "He probably feels like the weight of the club is on his shoulders. We just want him to do what he can do, he doesn't need to do any more than that."  There isn't any metric I have to justify this, but Cabrera will turn it around.  Buy.
• Mark Teixeira - ATL [$6.92]: Teixeira is sporting a 86.96% contact rate, with a 12.03% walk rate, yet has a .261 AVG.  He should inch towards .300 in the near future.  The power has been conspicuously absent this season, with only a .435 SLG thus far.  He seems to have a bad home road split, hitting .233/.333/.370 at home but hitting .292/.378/.508 on the road.  Teix slugged .596 at Turner Field last year, so this just seems to be a bad funk for him.  May be a good buy low opportunity.  Buy.
• Prince Fielder - MIL [$4.19]: [Insert assumption about vegetarianism sapping Fielder's power here].  He's always been a big strikeout guy, whiffing in 21.44% of his major league ABs.  Fielder is actually striking out less this year, only in 17.29% of his ABs.  He's not a .288 hitter like he was last year, but he certainly isn't a .241 hitter like he is this year.  What gives?  Milwaukee isn't scoring runs, ranking #20 in the bigs at doing so.  They're also #24 at getting on base.  That whole team is in a funk, but I'd imagine Fielder will still find 40+ HR power in his bat.  Buy.
• Ryan Howard - PHI [-$1.22]: Another struggling slugging first baseman.  Howard always strikes out [34.17% career rate], but he's at 38.57% this season.  His slugging is way down to .357 this season, not a good sign at all.  Howard is a second half player, with .249/.339/.522 Pre-ASB line compared to a .310/.429/.649 Post-ASB.  He's not a .300 hitter, and is more likely to hit .260-.270, but he just seems to be experiencing his usual beginning of the season slump.  I don't have any reason to think he won't pop 40+ HR again.  Buy.