Position Review: Catcher

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Best HR Source: Mike Napoli [8]
Best R Source: Joe Mauer [22]
Best RBI Source: Geovany Soto [24]
Best SB Source: Ivan Rodriguez & Russell Martin [3]
Best AVG Source: Victor Martinez [36 H in 104 AB]

In lieu of breaking down the top 10, I'm going to start to review players on a somewhat random basis.  I think we all know that Brian McCann and Russell Martin are good catchers. I want to focus more on examining whether certain players are legitimately good or due for a regression, or whether certain players are legitimately bad or due to break out of a slump.

Thoughts:

• Ryan Doumit: $19.64: Per Ron Shandler, a true .300 hitter is one with a 86% contact rate and an 11% walk rate.  Doumit currently sports exactly an 86.00% contact rate, combined with a 3.77% walk rate.  Doumit is currently hitting .340, well above any mark he's ever achieved.  BP's 90th percentile projection, a decent indication of a players ceiling, has him hitting .303.  Could Doumit hit .300?  Absolutely.  Will he likely do so?  Nope.  He is slugging way above his head at .560, though .490-.500 is certainly possible.  He won't be this good, but he'll certainly be good enough for the position.  Buy.
• Victor Martinez: $6.06: V-Mart was a consistent 3rd round pick due to the expectation of him being solid in HR, R, RBI, and AVG.  Thus far, he's delivered on the AVG at .346, but been below expectations everywhere else.  He did miss some time with an injury, but is still #14 in ABs amongst catchers.  What gives?  Cleveland is tied for 20th in OBP, therefore limiting RBI opportunities for V-Mart.  I don't think the Tribe's offense stays in this funk all season long.  It  also doesn't seem likely that he'll slug .500 again, but his .404 should certainly rise.  Buy.
• Dioner Navarro: $4.01: He can't possibly be as bad as he was last year, when he hit .227/.286/.356 in 388 AB.  Navarro's AVG is really carrying him, as he's currently hitting .333 in 66 AB.  He missed some time with the freak injury earlier this season, causing him to be lagging a little in the counting stats.  I like what I'm seeing here, as his age and team's upside certainly gives cause for believing he's capable of being a capable fantasy C.  Buy.
• J.R. Towles: -$3.69: Towles hasn't hit a HR since April 19, and has regressed in nearly every category in the past month.  More importantly, he hasn't even attempted to steal a base this season, which was something his owners were banking on.  I certainly though we'd see Towlie run with Cecil Cooper's aggressive baserunning management.  There's not too much to like here for a guy who was expected to be in over his head at this level, as he only had 83 AB of experience above AA before this season began.  If anything, he showed us early on that he has good power potential, but that's not enough to calm my fears.  Sell.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia: -$10.10: I'll get some first hand scouting on Salty when I head up to Arlington for the Astros/Rangers series this weekend.  He is currently splitting time with Gerald Laird and not doing much with the 29 ABs he's had.  It's an incredibly small sample size, and with his work at AAA [.291/.391/.491 in 55 AB], I wouldn't write him off entirely.  He was way overdrafted in the first place; I just think most people should have tempered their expectations to start with.  Although he won't be -$10 bad, with the PT in question, I'm a skeptic.  Sell.
• Kenji Johjima: -$10.39: Quite frankly, there's just not too much to like here.  Johjima has had 106 AB, but hasn't done anything with them.  It's not all his fault; the Mariners are 2nd worst in team OBP and the 6th worst in runs scored.  Regardless, there's little reason for optimism for either Johjima or the Mariners.  Sell.