Position Review: Starting Pitchers

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Best W Source: Brandon Webb [7]
Best K Source: Jake Peavy [46]
Best ERA Source: Cliff Lee [37.7 IP of 0.95 ERA]
Best WHIP Source: Cliff Lee [37.7 IP of 0.56 WHIP]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Cliff Lee-$50.80-Lee gave up 3 ER in 6 IP against the Mariners on Wednesday, his first outing allowing more than 1 ER this season.  The good sign was that he did not give up a walk in the start, lowering his BB/9 to 0.48 on the season.  Regardless, he won't maintain this value all season.  Sell.
2. Brandon Webb-$30.86-7 Ws in the bank already for Webb.  Pitching with the D-Backs offense behind him, there's no fluke in the W category.  Webb is flashing his usually dominant numbers, and appears to be on his way to receiving many Cy Young votes.  Buy.
3. Jake Peavy-$29.87-Just another season in the office for Peavy.  The only knock on him thus far is the Padres offense, which has and will continue to affect Peavy's ability to get the Ws.  Regardless, we all know that Peavy is legit.  Buy.
4. Ben Sheets-$28.87-Sheets has been pretty solid thus far, and should get a good test against the Astros and the BLT [Berkman-Lee-Tejada] today.  The health risk is always hanging over his head, which makes me a skeptic on him maintaining this value.  Sell.
5. Edinson Volquez-$27.35-Lost in the hooplah over Johnny Cueto, Volquez has been flat-out dominant.  He's flashed a 10.77 K/9, but also a 4.62 BB/9.  He's hard for me to gauge, but my gut tells me he's due for regression with that walk rate.  Sell.
6. Joe Saunders-$24.82-He's putting together a very impressive season, but with a 4.18 K/9, it's hard to imagine him maintaining this value.  Sell.
7. Ervin Santana-$24.81-There's a lot to like about the lesser Santana who's pitching like the better Santana.  His 2.03 BB/9 rate is impressive, and the 6.53 K/9 is respectable.  The only red flag is the .239 BABIP, which is due for regression.  This one is a tough call, but I'm a skeptic.  Sell.
8. Zack Greinke-$23.77-Another BABIP beneficiary [.238], Greinke has pitched pretty well thus far.  Regardless, with the Royals offense behind him and a K rate under 6.0, it's hard to imagine Greinke maintaining $20+ value.
9. Johan Santana-$21.34-Something tells me this guy is good.  Buy.
10. Shaun Marcum-$20.16-He's flashed signs of dominance, like his 9 K in 6.2 scoreless IP against the White Sox on Friday.  Regardless, he has the third lowest BABIP amongst pitchers with 30+ IP at .183.  Expect significant regression from the $20 range, but Marcum will prove to be a decent value.  Sell.

Comments

[Zolthorg]

On Volquez: something really does have to give. Either his BB rate improves or his ERA dies. I'm on the ERA death side

On Greinke: I really think he can maintain a $20+ value all season. The book is already out on him, he isn't rookie hiding or luck streaking. He's winning based on great control of 3 very quality pitches. His K-rate is already starting to come around. 19k in his last 19IP

On Marcum: He's a lie. I agree completely with your sell tag

The two most interesting pitchers on the sheet are Wainwright and Wang. Wang's current k-rate leaves me scratching my head

[Ken]

"He's flashed a 10.77 K/9, but also a 4.62 BB/9. He's hard for me to gauge, but my gut tells me he's due for regression with that walk rate."

"On Volquez: something really does have to give. Either his BB rate improves or his ERA dies. I'm on the ERA death side"

you guys are only looking at part of the picture. Volquez's huge GB% is also a large part of his success. You can't just look at K/BB ratio.

he is inducing GB's 52% of the time compared to Cueto's 38%. that's a big difference.

his QERA right now is 3.08. so sure he's running a bit hot, but he isn't due to fall of a cliff, given his current peripherals

[Ike Warner]

Zolthorg: Good points. The recent K streak for Greinke isn't something I noticed. Let's see if he keeps it going.

Ken: Also good points. I do need to look at QERA and other metrics of that nature, something I'll start doing for next weeks' posts.

[Zolthorg]

My point quite simply being on Volquez is that he doesn't have the control yet to be a truly elite SP. The most important thing isn't how hard you throw but where you throw it

He could easily be John Maine, though. That's not a bad thing to become