Position Review: Outfielders

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

OF MVP: Nate McLouth [$37.28] - .312 AVG, 12 HR, 36 R, 36 RBI, 4 SB
Average OF with Positive Value: [$13.10] - .283 AVG, 5 HR, 23 R, 22 RBI, 4 SB
Replacement Level Player: Ryan Spilborghs [$1.00] - .306 AVG, 1 HR, 12 R, 17 RBI, 3 SB

Best HR Source: Nate McLouth [12]
Best R Source: Chris Young [37]
Best RBI Source: Josh Hamilton [49]
Best SB Source: Ichiro Suzuki & Michael Bourn [18]
Best AVG Source: Josh Hamilton [56 H in 175 AB]

Thoughts:

• Nick Markakis [$18.15]: Nick has parked 8 HR and swiped 6 bases thus far.  After hitting .300 last year, the only big knock on him this season is his .267 AVG.  The BABIP is at .305, so that's not the culprit.  His strikeout rate is way up from 17.58% last year to 24.67% this year.  Markakis should be able to adjust and get that AVG at a more respectable level.  If he does that, his value will shoot up.  Buy.
• Hunter Pence [$12.99]: Pence started off slow, but has been raking as of late.  He's 11 for his last 27, with 6 R, 4 RBI, and 3 SB.  Don't get too giddy though - the BABIP at .339 is unsustainable.  Pence has batted leadoff in place of Michael Bourn these past two games, and if that continues, look for him to score a lot more runs.  Pence's value should fall right in this range at the end of the season, but I like his upside.  Buy.
• Nick Swisher [-$2.71]: Not the greatest start for Swisher thus far.  Although we all knew he wasn't much of a player who could hit for AVG, he's only hitting .208 right now.  The .250 BABIP is a bit low, so expect his AVG to get back up around his career .247 mark.  His SLG is way down, from .455 last year to .329 this year.  All in all, there's not too much to like here.  Sell.
• Shane Victorino [-$3.61]: Hampered by injuries early on, the Flyin' Hawaiian just hasn't looked great.  The .237 AVG is coupled with a low .265 BABIP, so expect the AVG to rise to a .280 level. Overall, he's not stealing bases at the rate he did last year, which would certainly knock his value.  On the good side, he has swiped 2 in the past week, so maybe that trend is reversing.  All in all, I'd expect his value to continue to rise.   Buy.
   

Comments

[Rob]

I'm having the most difficult time choosing between Victorino and Abreu. Victorino has RF/CF eligibility, better speed, and bats 2nd between Rollins and Utley. Abreu has only RF, not much speed but better power, and bats between Jeter and A-Rod.

I will need to drop one soon. Who do you recommend? It's not a keeper league so beyond 2008 doesn't matter.

Is Victorino officially an every day guy now or is he platooning with Werth and Jenkins?

[Ike Warner]

It really depends on your team needs, really. If you need the SB, Victorino's the guy. On an even field, I'd take Victorino over Abreu, but there are PT concerns with Victorino, as he did come off the bench for two games against Toronto. If I had to make a decision right now, stick with Abreu...but I'd wait a few days to see how the PT situation sorts out in Philly.