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« Odds & Ends | Main | Odds & Ends »

May 17, 2008

Position Review: Shortstop

Please note: The valuation data for this post does not include data from the past two days' [5/15 & 5/16] games.

Ss051608

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

SS MVP: Hanley Ramirez [$40.33] - .327 AVG, 9 HR, 34 R, 23 RBI, 13 SB
Average SS With Positive Value: .298 AVG, 3 HR, 23 R, 17 RBI, 4 SB
Replacement Level Player: Jimmy Rollins [$1.00] - .286 AVG, 3 HR, 10 R, 11 RBI, 3 SB

Best HR Source: Hanley Ramirez [9]
Best R Source: Hanley Ramirez & Rafael Furcal [34]
Best RBI Source: Miguel Tejada [31]
Best SB Source: Hanley Ramirez [13]
Best AVG Source: Rafael Furcal [49 H in 134 AB - .366 AVG]

Thoughts:

  • Ryan Theriot [$16.77]: The Riot is currently sporting a .329 AVG, thanks in large part to a lofty .362 BABIP.  Expect regression there.  We all know he can steal; in fact, most people drafted him for that reason.  He's not riding a fluky RBI or HR total, as he only has 10 RBI and 1 HR thus far.  The Cubs offense is legit, so the R totals seem to be legit as well.  All in, expect a little regression in AVG, but it looks like owners of The Riot will turn a profit this year.  Buy.
  • Jose Reyes [$13.41]: What's up with Reyes?  He's on pace to "only" steal 50 bases, when most people drafted him expecting near 70.  The Mets' offense hasn't exactly been elite, suppressing his runs scored totals.  His .258 AVG isn't due in part to a fluky BABIP; that's at .286.  All in all, I'm not 100% sure what's up with Reyes, but temper your expectations.  I don't think we're getting a .300 AVG with 70 SB and 120 R, but Reyes will still be a useful player; I'd expect around a .280 AVG, 55 SB and 100 R.  His value may increase from here, but I'd try to capitalize on the "name" value and make a deal.  Sell.
  • Stephen Drew [$11.53]: My pre-season valuations [based on BP's projections] had Drew at only $1.38.  He's currently hitting .289 on a high but not ridiculous .305 BABIP.  Drew isn't riding obscene R & RBI totals [26 & 18, respectively], so those aren't exactly red flags.  He wasn't ever going to steal 20 bases, so the 1 SB thus far isn't a knock on him at all.  All in all, he may regress a tad, but this is looking like a good season.  Buy.
  • Khalil Greene [-$5.15]: Khalil wasn't ever going to be confused for a guy competing for a batting title, but even the current .215 AVG is a disappointment.  The .248 BABIP is a sign he's due to get up to his normal .250'ish AVG.  The power, on the other hand, is not looking like it's there.  The .323 SLG is a big red flag, and it's looking more and more like last years .468 SLG was an anomaly.  Don't expect 25 HRs here.  Sell.
  • J.J. Hardy [-$7.15]: Hardy hasn't ever seemed to be on track.  He started the season ill, and hasn't ever gotten it together.  With only 1 HR and 10 RBI, he's not looking like the decent power source at SS most people expected.  There's just not too much to like here.  Sell.

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