Nine Bo Jacksons

MLB Review

This will be the new review format I'll be using for the duration of my summer trip, as it's just not possible to do everyday posting.  I'll try to do this post about once a week.

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.  The sheet has a new format - inside, you'll find 12 different tabs with tons of info.  You can view the values for each position, all batters/all pitchers, or the big board that puts them all side by side.

Overall

MVP: Lance Berkman [$55.47] - .381 AVG, 16 HR, 56 R, 46 RBI, 10 SB

Average Player with Positive Value: [$12.00] - .283 AVG, 6 HR, 27 R, 26 RBI, 4 SB

Best HR Source: Chase Utley [17]

Best R Source: Lance Berkman [56]

Best RBI Source: Josh Hamilton [58]

Best SB Source: Ichiro Suzuki & Michael Bourn [23]

Best AVG Source: Chipper Jones [.418 AVG - 77 H in 184 AB]

 

Catchers

MVP: Brian McCann [$27.22] - .320 AVG, 9 HR, 27 R, 32 RBI, 0 SB

Average Player with Positive Value: [$10.11] - .291 AVG, 4 HR, 17 R, 20 RBI, 1 SB

Replacement Level Player: Gregg Zaun [$1.00] - .264 AVG, 2 HR, 13 R, 8 RBI, 2 SB

Best HR Source: Mike Napoli [10]

Best R Source: Joe Mauer [31]

Best RBI Source: Geovany Soto & Bengie Molina [36]

Best SB Source: Russell Martin [4]

Best AVG Source: Dioner Navarro [.374 AVG - 43 H in 115 AB]

Sell High Candidates: Bengie Molina [$24.66], Miguel Olivo [$13.10]

Buy Low Candidates: Victor Martinez [$3.97], Jorge Posada [-$0.25]

 

First Basemen

MVP: Lance Berkman [$55.47] - .381 AVG, 16 HR, 56 R, 46 RBI, 10 SB

Average Player with Positive Value: [$15.16] - .284 AVG, 9 HR, 30 R, 32 RBI, 2 SB

Replacement Level Player: Todd Helton [$1.00] - .280 AVG, 4 HR, 26 R, 17 RBI, 0 SB

Best HR Source: Lance Berkman [16]

Best R Source: Lance Berkman [56]

Best RBI Source: Lance Berkman [46]

Best SB Source: Lance Berkman [10]

Best AVG Source: Lance Berkman [.381 AVG - 74 H in 194 AB]

Sell High Candidates: Kevin Youkilis [$19.83], Jason Giambi [$8.71]

Buy Low Candidates: Ryan Howard [$15.68], Miguel Cabrera [$9.25], Mark Teixeira [$7.13], Prince Fielder [$4.11]

 

Second Basemen

MVP: Chase Utley [$40.43] - .306 AVG, 17 HR, 41 R, 46 RBI, 5 SB

Average Player with Positive Value: [$13.65] - .284 AVG, 5 HR, 30 R, 24 RBI, 6 SB

Replacement Level Player: Ronny Cedeno [$1.00] - .321 AVG, 1 HR, 17 R, 19 RBI, 2 SB

Best HR Source: Chase Utley [17]

Best R Source: Ian Kinsler [45]

Best RBI Source: Chase Utley [46]

Best SB Source: Ian Kinsler [15]

Best AVG Source: Howie Kendrick [.500 AVG - 18 H in 36 AB]

Sell High Candidates: Dan Uggla [$34.06], Mark DeRosa [$14.49]

Buy Low Candidates: Robinson Cano [-$5.37]

 

Third Basemen

MVP: Chipper Jones [$35.00] - .418 AVG, 12 HR, 38 R, 35 RBI, 0 SB

Average Player with Positive Value: [$8.94] - .275 AVG, 8 HR, 26 R, 27 RBI, 2 SB

Replacement Level Player: Bill Hall [$1.00] - .227 AVG, 9 HR, 20 R, 22 RBI, 3 SB

Best HR Source: Chipper Jones [12]

Best R Source: Chipper Jones [38]

Best RBI Source: Aramis Ramirez [37]

Best SB Source: Chone Figgins [11]

Best AVG Source: Chipper Jones [.418 AVG - 77 H in 184 AB]

Sell High Candidates: Mark Reynolds [$13.03]

Buy Low Candidates: Ryan Zimmerman [$4.55], Alex Rodriguez [$3.67]

 

Shortstop

MVP: Miguel Tejada [$29.77] - .330 AVG, 6 HR, 43 R, 37 RBI, 4 SB

Average Player with Positive Value: [$11.68] - .292 AVG, 5 HR, 29 R, 21 RBI, 5 SB

Replacement Level Player: Jerry Hairston [$1.00] - .338 AVG, 1 HR, 13 R, 9 RBI, 9 SB

Best HR Source: Jhonny Peralta [11]

Best R Source: Miguel Tejada [43]

Best RBI Source: Miguel Tejada [37]

Best SB Source: Jose Reyes [16]

Best AVG Source: Rafael Furcal [.366 AVG - 49 H in 134 AB]

Sell High Candidates: Cristian Guzman [$16.44]

Buy Low Candidates: Jimmy Rollins [$7.97], Derek Jeter [$7.53]

 

Outfielders

MVP: Josh Hamilton [$36.78] - .324 AVG, 13 HR, 35 R, 58 RBI, 2 SB

Average Player with Positive Value: [$12.46] - .282 AVG, 7 HR, 28 R, 27 RBI, 5 SB

Replacement Level Player: Melky Cabrera [$1.00] - .254 AVG, 6 HR, 19 R, 21 RBI, 3 SB

Best HR Source: Carlos Quentin & Adam Dunn [14]

Best R Source: Nate McLouth [43]

Best RBI Source: Josh Hamilton [58]

Best SB Source: Ichiro Suzuki & Michael Bourn [23]

Best AVG Source: Aaron Rowand [.337 AVG - 58 H in 172 AB]

Sell High Candidates: Ryan Ludwick [$26.88], Xavier Nady [$19.87], Ryan Church [$18.75], David Murphy [$16.35], Jason Werth [$11.04]

Buy Low Candidates: Vladimir Guerrrero [$6.02], Curtis Granderson [-$0.48], Nick Swisher [-$7.85]

 

Starting Pitchers

MVP: Cliff Lee [$35.88] - 66 IP, 7 W, 1.50 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 54 K

Average Player with Positive Value: [$11.82] - 61 IP, 5 W, 2.94 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 48 K

Replacement Level Player: Erik Bedard [$1.00] - 53 IP, 4 W, 4.08 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 48 K

Best W Source: Brandon Webb [9]

Best K Source: Edinson Volquez & Tim Lincecum [76]

Best ERA Source: Edinson Volquez [62 IP of 1.31 ERA]

Best WHIP Source: Shaun Marcum [71.7 IP of 0.86 WHIP]

Sell High Candidates: Ryan Dempster [$18.99], Tim Hudson [$16.59], Joe Saunders [$16.36], Jorge Campillo [$15.29], Aaron Laffey [$13.00]

Buy Low Candidates: Jake Peavy [$11.93], Johan Santana [$10.06], Josh Beckett [$7.99], Javier Vazquez [$7.23], Aaron Harang [$5.45], Erik Bedard [$1.00]

 

Relief Pitchers

MVP: Mariano Rivera [$26.38] - 23 IP, 1 W, 0.39 ERA, 0.52 WHIP, 21 K, 14 SV

Average Player with Positive Value: [$8.84] - 24 IP, 2 W, 2.09 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 21 K, 5 SV

Replacement Level Player: Damaso Marte [$1.00] - 25 IP, 4 W, 4.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 27 K, 0 SV

Best W Source: 7 Pitchers [4]

Best K Source: Carlos Marmol [47]

Best SV Source: Francisco Rodriguez [21]

Best ERA Source: Mariano Rivera [23 IP of 0.39 ERA]

Best WHIP Source: Mariano Rivera [23 IP of 0.52 WHIP]

Sell High Candidates: Taylor Buchholz [$15.90], John Grabow [$11.58], James Johnson [$9.51], Leo Nunez [$7.98], Doug Waechter [$7.64]

Buy Low Candidates: Salomon Torres [$6.61], Dan Wheeler [$5.03], Joba Chamberlain [$4.05], Brian Fuentes [$1.40]

Odds & Ends

Live from Northwest Minneapolis, let's round up the loose ends from the past few days:

Injuries:

• Chad Tracy came off the DL.  Bob Melvin stated that he's behind Conor Jackson at 1B and Mark Reynolds at 3B, but it's not hard to imagine Tracy getting decent PT if Reynolds keeps hitting as he has lately.
• Buddy Carlyle came off the DL for the Braves, who DFA'd Chris Resop to make room.
• Jack Wilson came off the DL for the Pirates, who sent Brian Bixler to AAA Indianapolis to make room.  Wilson resumed his starting role at SS, batting second.
• Gary Sheffield hit the DL with an oblique strain.  The Tigers called up Jeff Larish from AAA, who hit 16 HR in 191 AB.  He's obviously a good source for power, but don't expect much in the AVG department, as his .266 career MiLB AVG isn't a great sign.
• Eric Byrnes hit the DL with sore hamstrings, marking his first trip to the DL.  The D-Backs called up Alex Romero, who should see PT in LF, along with Jeff Salazar and Chris Burke.
• Although Ryan Church has not been placed on the DL after his latest concussion, the Mets did place RP Matt Wise on the DL with shoulder tendinitis.  They called up Carlos Muniz from AAA, where he pitched 20 IP of 1.80 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and a 7.65 K/9.  Muniz sports a K/9 over 9 for his MiLB career, so he's a decent NL-Only MR option.
• The Tribe activated Jake Westbrook from the DL, DFA'ing Jorge Julio to make room.
• Ian Kennedy hit the DL with a strained muscle in his ribcage.  The Yanks recalled Chris Britton from AAA, who is a decent add for AL Only leagues.
• The Cards put Joel Piniero on the DL with a strained groin.  They called up Kelvin Jimenez from AAA to take his spot.
• Gregg Zaun hit the DL with an elbow injury.  The Blue Jays called up Curtis Thigpen from AAA, though Rod Barajas is expected to get the starting gig behind the plate.
• Matt Diaz hit the DL with a tear in his PCL and will miss 4-6 weeks.  The Braves activated Rafael Soriano from the DL, who should resume his duties as closer before John Smoltz returns.
• Kevin Millwood will return from the DL in time to start Friday's game against Oakland.  IF Travis Metcalf was also recalled.  The Rangers optioned Kameron Loe and German Duran to make room for the two.
• Troy Percival hit the DL with a left hamstring strain.  The Rays activated Willy Aybar from the DL to take Percival's roster spot.  Dan Wheeler closed out the game that Percival left in, but Joe Maddon says Al Reyes, Trever Miller and J.P. Howell are all options as well.
• The A's activated Eric Chavez from the DL, placing Frank Thomas on the DL with a strained right knee and sore quads.

Transactions:

• The Mariners traded Cha Seung Baek to the Padres for Jared Wells.  Don't expect either to break record in their new leagues.
• The Corey Patterson era came to a halt in Cincy.  Patterson was sent to AAA Louisville to work on his swing.  The Reds called up IF Andy Phillips to take his spot.
• The Twins picked up Craig Breslow off waivers, ridding the Indians of the left hander.
• The former #1 pick in the 2002 draft, Bryan Bullington, was called up to the Pirates big league roster.  Marino Salas was optioned to make room for him.  Don't expect much from Bullington, who was taken ahead of B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, James Loney, and Matt Cain in that draft.
• Matt Belisle was sent to AAA by the Reds, who called Josh Fogg back into the big league rotation.
• The Cubs called up Neal Cotts from AAA Iowa, optioning Jose Ascanio to make room.
• The Royals sent Billy Butler down to AAA, calling up Mike Aviles to take his roster spot.  Butler hit .217 over the past month, prompting the move.  Aviles had .338/.369/.634 line in 213 AB at AAA, but his career line is .297/.337/.464.  He's a decent AL-Only add, but don't expect a SLG over .500.

Misc.

• The first game of the road trip was a victory for the home team.  I saw a great pitchers duel between Jeff Suppan and Jo-Jo Reyes at Miller Park last night.  Miller Park was a very impressive stadium, but the traffic & construction surrounding the stadium was miserable. Tomorrow night I hit the Metrodome for the Twins and the Yankees, then it's a long drive to Seattle.  Here's the picture of the day:

Thoughts on Kershaw, Bruce, Stewart & Smith

Kershaw, Bruce, Stewart & Smith sounds like a law firm to me.  Add in William Shatner and you have a quality TV series.  All four were called up by their respective big league teams, so let's take a look at what they bring to the fantasy table:

• Clayton Kershaw, SP-LAD: Ranked as the #5 prospect in the game by Jim Callis and Kevin Goldstein, Kershaw was the unanimous top left handed pitching prospect heading into the season.  His stuff is that of an ace.  According to Baseball America, Kershaw throws a fastball that sits around 93-94, touching 99 a couple of times last year.  He also throws a 71-77 mph curveball with good 1-7 tilt.  His circle changeup ranked as a potential third plus pitch, though I haven't read anything about his progress on that pitch this season.  Kershaw is a dominant strikeout pitcher, logging an 11.76 K/9 in his 202.1 career MiLB innings.  He struggled with his command last year at AA, logging a 6.32 BB/9 rate, but he got it back under control this year with a 3.13 BB/9.  The only bad thing I can say about Kershaw is that he only pitched 68 IP at AA.  I tend to give pitchers of his pedigree the benefit of the doubt, though, and his debut yesteday [6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K] went a long way to sell me.  The one other thing of note is that he will be limited with an IP cap, somewhere around 170 from what I've heard.  Regardless, he's worth an add in any format, and should be a top-tier SP for many years to come.
• Jay Bruce, OF-CIN: The #1 prospect in the game finally got the call up.  His debut tonight was a smashing success, going 3 for 3 with 2 R, 2 RBI, and 1 SB.  I already covered him in more detail here.  If I was a betting man, I'd wager that Bruce is this year's Ryan Braun.  As he was only 6% owned in Yahoo leagues a week or two ago, he's likely out there in some leagues still, so pick him up if you can.
• Ian Stewart, 3B-COL: The former first round pick was part of a few call ups the Rox made this week.  Stewart hit for good average in his minor league career, with a .294 AVG in 2211 AB.  He's certainly capable of stealing double digit bases, and his 6 SB in AAA this year were an encouraging sign. While the HR power looked elite when he jacked 30 in '04, he only averaged 14 over '05-'07.  The power came back this year, though, as he hit 12 HR in 171 AB.  Although BP notes how terrible Stewart looked at 2B when they tried him there last year, the Rox started him at 2B tonight.  If he gains 2B eligibility, he could be an interesting option.  I'm not completely sold on Stewart as a can't miss fantasy player this season because of his '05-'07 power issues, but he's certainly worthy of an add in all formats.
• Seth Smith, OF-COL: The former college backup of Eli Manning at Ole Miss, Smith has had an impressive minor league career.  He's hit for a .312 AVG in 1927 AB, so it's safe to say he won't be Adam Dunn in that category.  The HR power hasn't been elite, though 15-20 would be possible in a full season.  On the bases, he seems capable of 7-10 SB.  Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe won't be injured forever, so Smith is destined to be sent back down or benched when they do return.  BP thinks his ceiling is that of a platoon/fourth OF.  He could be a decent fill in if he continues to mash like he did at AAA this season.

Odds & Ends

Live from the Buckeye State, it's time for some Odds & Ends. Let's catch up on what's happened during my journey from Texas to Ohio:

Injuries:

• Austin Kearns underwent elbow surgery and will miss 3-4 weeks.  Look for Elijah Dukes to get more PT.
• Moises Alou is back on the DL with a calf strain.  The Mets called up Raul Casanova to take his roster spot.
• Adam Everett hit the DL with a strained right shoulder.  The Twins called up Matt Macri [MiLB Value -$18.71] to take his roster spot.
• The Tribe activated Joe Borowski from the DL, DFA'ing Craig Breslow to make room.
• The White Sox placed Juan Uribe on the DL with a strained hamstring, calling up DeWayne Wise to take his spot.  Wise is a good add for SBs if he gets sufficient PT/pinch-running opportunities.
• Eric Gagne hit the DL with right rotator cuff tendinitis, calling up Tim Dillard [MiLB Value $6.67] to take his spot.
• Jason Werth hit the DL with a strained oblique, recalling OF T.J. Bohn [MiLB Value -$20.88].  With Werth's injury, Shane Victorino should be free from a potential platoon situation.
• The Marlins placed OF Brett Carroll on the DL with a right shoulder sprain, recalling IF Robert Andino to take his roster spot.  Andino was sent back down to make room for Eulogio De La Cruz.
• Fausto Carmona hit the DL with a strained hip that could have him miss a month, also optioning RP Jensen Lewis to AAA.  In their places, the Tribe called up P Edward Mujica [MiLB Value -$8.16] and Scott Elarton [-$2.01].
• Injury woes for the Rockies: Clint Barmes [Sprained MCL], Brad Hawpe [hamstring], and Matt Holliday [hamstring] hit the DL.  3B Ian Stewart [MiLB Value $41.37], OF Seth Smith [$34.13], and OF Cory Sullivan [$14.55] were called up to take their spots.  I'll have more on Stewart and Smith in a separate post later today.
• Andruw Jones hit the DL for the first time in his career with a knee injury that will sideline him for 4-6 weeks.  Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier should be set for PT for the immediate future.  The Dodgers called up Quad-A player Terry Tiffee [MiLB Value $37.51] to take Jones' roster spot.  Tiffee was hitting an absurd .422 at AAA.
• The Friars activated Michael Barrett from the DL, optioning Colt Morton to AA to make room.  Barrett will get good PT while Josh Bard is recovering from Albert Pujols.

Transactions:

• The Nats sent down Matt Chico & Chris Schroder, calling up OF Ryan Langerhans [MiLB Value $18.62], P Brian Sanches [$17.18], and P Charlie Manning [$10.88].
• The Dodgers DFA'd Esteban Loaiza, calling up Clayton Kershaw to take his roster spot.  I'll have more on Kershaw in a separate post later today.
• The Brew Crew optioned Tony Gwynn Jr. to AAA Nashville, calling up Quad-A IF Russell Branyan [MiLB Value $32.20].

First Round Review

With over a month and a half of the season in the books, let's take a look at how the 1st round picks are doing [according to ADP data courtesy of www.mockdraftcentral.com].  The $ Value listed is their current value.

1. Alex Rodriguez-$3.61-After spending time on the DL due to the strained quad, Rodriguez has been good but not elite when he's been healthy.  A .308 AVG, 6 HR, 17 R, 15 RBI, and 1 SB isn't a bad haul, but far from great.  Although no one could have predicted the quad injury, if it limits his base stealing, A-Rod won't come near 1st round value.
2. Hanley Ramirez-$30.28-Han-Ram has flashed much better power than expected, jacking 9 HR in 171 AB.  He's currently in a 1 for 15 funk, but he's looking like a good bet to be one of the top players in the game.
3. David Wright-$21.23-Probably one of the safest bets in the draft, the only knock on Wright is that he's only hitting .287.  Even that is turning around, as he's hit .346 in the past week.  Once the flukes fluke out, I have a feeling Wright will end up as one of the best players in the game.
4. Jose Reyes-$16.58-Don't look now, but Reyes is getting hot.  2 HR, 2 SB, and a .385 AVG in the past week is making me re-think the "sell" tag I placed on Reyes a short time ago.  Everyone has hot streaks, though.  Reyes is only on pace for 50 SB, a far cry from the 65-70 most people expected.  He's got a lot to prove, but he's at least going to mitigate damage for his owners.
5. Matt Holliday-$22.46-With the Rockies looking pretty terrible, Holliday is not a reason why.  The .324 AVG is looking good, but who would have guessed he'd have more SB than HR at this point?  I'm not one.  Although the team dependent stats might take a hit with his teammates not doing so well, Holliday should do just fine on his own.
6. Miguel Cabrera-$9.35-One of the bigger disappointments so far, M-Cab hasn't even had time on the DL to blame for his lack of value.  Although there's no data I can point to, I just can't think of any reason why a 25 year old M-Cab won't reach his expectations.
7. Jimmy Rollins-$5.53-Another victim of the DL, J-Roll is back on track.  Hitting .379 over the past week with 3 SB, he's looking like he'll be able to mitigate early season DL damage.  There's little reason to think he won't be an elite player from here on out.
8. Chase Utley-$31.65-The player with the highest value amongst this group, Chutley is just doing what he does best.  He's playing so well that President Bush would take him with the first pick.  Barring another freak injury, Utley will easily justify his ADP.
9. Alfonso Soriano-$15.12-Another victim of the DL, Soriano has played out of his mind since returning.  The speed game isn't quite there with only 3 SB thus far, but he's still capable of meeting the 15-20 SB expectations.  As long as you weren't expecting a .300 AVG, Soriano's production should come close to meeting his expectations.
10. Albert Pujols-$26.81-A lot of people (myself included) passed over Pujols due to elbow concerns, but now a lot of people (myself included) are eating their hats.  Although the team surrounding him is certainly suspect, Prince Albert certainly is not.
11. Ryan Howard-$9.49-Off to a slow start and still hitting below the Mendoza line, Howard is still hitting the long ball.  Just remember that he's a second half player [.251/.341/.533 pre-ASB compared to .301/.429/.649 post-ASB].  I'm a big believer in Howard from July on out.
12. Johan Santana-$15.41-In one sense, Santana is a failure in that he is not the #1 pitcher, which is what most people drafted him expecting.  Then again, he is pitching well, and once the flukes fluke out of the picture, I'd expect him to be near the cream of the crop.

Just remember, it's never the first round picks that make or break your team - it's every move that follows those picks.

Waiver Wire Review

Here are some guys available in the NBJs 12 team mixed league:

• C: Brian Schneider.  He's at least getting PT, which is about all you can ask for at this point.
• 1B: Richie Sexson.  Sexson is looking like a cheap source of power with 8 HR already.  There aren't too many questions on whether or not his .204 AVG is for real - it is.
• 2B: Luis Castillo.  A decent source for SB, Castillo's current .262 AVG should rise as well.
• 3B: Bill Hall.  Another good power source, his .207 AVG is certainly going to rise.
• SS: Bobby Crosby.  His PT is at least solid, even if nothing else is.
• OF: Brian Giles.  He's obviously on a hot streak, but ride it while you can.
• OF: Luis Gonzalez.  With Willingham's injury looking more serious, Gonzo should keep getting the PT.
• OF: Ryan Sweeney.  Currently sporting a .295 AVG, his value has shot up in May.
• P: Darrell Rasner.  He was pretty solid in AAA and is continuing that streak at the big league level.
• P: J.P. Howell.  Pitching out of the Rays bullpen, he's lowered his ERA by more than 1.00 in the month of May.
• P: Octavio Dotel. The 14.59 K/9 in the past month is pretty impressive.
• P: Ramon Ramirez.  Ramirez has a great K rate [11.31 K/9] and solid ERA/WHIP numbers [1.86/1.09].
• P: Tony Pena. Clearly the setup guy in ARI, Pena brings a good K rate and the speculative saves if Brandon Lyon needs an off day.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• The Angels put Erick Aybar on the DL with a dislocated pinky, an injury expected to keep him out of action for four weeks.  They activated Chone Figgins from the DL to take Aybar's roster spot.
• Bobby Cox thinks John Smoltz will be back in a couple of weeks.
• Ouch.  Albert Pujols took out two Padres in last nights game.  Add Josh Bard, who sprained an ankle in a home plate collision, and Chris Young, who took a line drive that broke his nose, to Pujols' list of victims.  DL stints are possible for both.

Transactions:

• The Rangers DFA'd RP Franklyn German, calling up Kameron Loe [MiLB Value -$16.84].

Misc.:

• With my summer tour of baseball stadiums about to begin, things may be a little sporadic on NBJs.  In lieu of reviewing one position each day, I'll review every position in one post about once a week.  These reviews will obviously be less detailed than the current format.  Also, the daily "Odds & Ends" post will fall by the wayside for now.  I'll pop in with random topics from the road whenever I'm equipped with WiFi.  Things should be back to normal around August, when we'll all be in the stretch drive of our fantasy seasons.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• The Dodgers put backup catcher Gary Bennett on the DL, calling up Danny Ardoin [MiLB Value $11.57] from AAA.
• Josh Willingham could miss another month.  He's currently sidelined with a herniated disc.
• Minnesota 2B Matt Tolbert will miss at least four and a half weeks with an injured ligament on his left thumb.
• Oakland RP Andrew Brown hit the DL after having an appendectomy.  Oakland called up Lenny DiNardo from AAA to take his roster spot.
• Doug Davis will return to the Arizona rotation on Friday.  Bob Melvin didn't say how they'd free up a spot for him.

Transactions:

• Boston called up Justin Masterson from AA, optioning Chris Smith back to the minors.  Masterson gave up 1 ER in 6.1 IP, with 5 K to go along with it.
• The Giants called up IF Travis Denker from AAA Fresno [MiLB Value -$2.57], optioning Eugenio Velez to make room.

Position Review: 1st Base

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

1B MVP: Lance Berkman [$56.57] - .389 AVG, 16 HR, 48 R, 44 RBI, 8 SB
Average Player with Positive Value: [$13.91] - .280 AVG, 8 HR, 24 R, 27 RBI, 1 SB
Replacement Level Player: Kevin Millar [$1.00] - .234 AVG, 5 HR, 21 R, 21 RBI, 0 SB

Best HR Source: Lance Berkman [16]
Best R Source: Lance Berkman [48]
Best RBI Source: Lance Berkman [44]
Best SB Source: Lance Berkman [8]
Best AVG Source: Lance Berkman [65 H in 167 AB - .389 AVG]

The Top 3:

1. Lance Berkman [$56.57]: .389 AVG, 16 HR, 48 R, 44 RBI, 8 SB.  Start the panic!  Berkman went 0 for 4 last night, including 3 strikeouts.  The end is near!  Just kidding, of course.  Lance gets to face Ryan Dempster tonight, whom he's hit to the tune of .294/.455/.647 with 4 HR in 34 AB.  Buy.
2. Albert Pujols [$28.70]: .364 AVG, 11 HR, 28 R, 31 RBI, 2 SB.  I'm curious how the many people who passed on Pujols in the draft due to elbow concerns are feeling.  As one of those people, I'm eating my hat. His numbers are superb, and he'll likely be right around where his pre-season projections put him at.  Buy.
3. Kevin Youkilis [$25.71]: .327 AVG, 9 HR, 30 R, 34 RBI, 2 SB.  Youk continues to swing a hot stick, going 9 for 25 in the past week with 1 HR, 4 RBI, and 3 R.  His value actually went down over the past week by $2.06, though, and I think he's due to keep falling.  Sell.

Thoughts:

• Adrian Gonzalez [$18.12]: Buy.
  
  • HR: Gonzo's power is right back where it was last year, hitting 11 HR while slugging .508, just .006 over last year's numbers.  His power is very real, and he's looking like he'll hit 30 HR again.
  • R: Scoring 26 runs in the Padres offense deserves a medal of honor.
  • RBI: As pretty much the only guy in the Friars' lineup who can drive in runs, his 34 RBI thus far put him on pace for over 100 RBI.  He should end up right about there.
  • SB: He's attempted to steal once in his career, and was thrown out doing so.
  • AVG: Gonzo's currently hitting .268 on a .286 BABIP.  BP thinks he's a .280 hitter, and that seems about right.
  • Conclusion: What you see is what you get.  Gonzo should remain around this level of value.
• Carlos Pena [$3.89]: Sell.
  
  • HR: With 9 HR thus far, Pena isn't looking like the 46 HR hitter we saw last year.  He'll likely end up in the mid 30s.
  • R: With only 21 R scored thus far, he's below the positional average with players of positive value.
  • RBI: With only 23 RBI thus far, reaching the century mark is still possible, but I wouldn't bank on it.
  • SB: His running game is non-existant.
  • AVG: Hitting .282 last year was a complete fluke.  The .215 AVG is being done with a .260 BABIP, so expect progression towards the .255-.260 range.
  • Conclusion: Pena was going way too high in drafts for my taste to start with.  He's a useful role player, but no one to build a team around.
     
• Jason Giambi [$1.27]: Sell.
  
  • HR: With 8 HR thus far, Giambi should end up in the 20 HR range again.
  • R: Predominantly hitting 5th in the Yanks order, he's not looking like a tremendous source of runs right now.
  • RBI: He's doing well with RBI opportunities, driving in 21 in 143 PA when the MLB average player would drive in 15 with the same number of PAs.
  • SB: Nope, nothing here.
  • AVG: The .191 AVG is being done with a .146 BABIP, so he should at least cross the Mendoza line soon.  Don't expect anything far above that line, though.
  • Conclusion: The Golden Thong must have thrown Giambi into positive value.  I don't think he'll be able to maintain this, though, as it is Jason Giambia we're talking about here.
• Paul Konerko [-$0.87]: Sell.
  
  • HR: Konerko's power is missing, with his SLG down to .356 this year. If he's truly relapsing towards the .399 SLG he had in '03, things won't look great here.
  • R: The CWS offense isn't looking that great, so don't expect him to be in the 90-100 range.
  • RBI: With only 23 RBI thus far, triple digits is looking like a reach here.
  • SB: Konerko stole his 6th base in his career this year.  Don't expect him to reach double digits this year.
  • AVG: The .212 AVG is looking ugly, but the .228 BABIP suggests it's due to rise.  I'm buying somewhere around a .255-.270 AVG.
  • Conclusion: Not too much to like here.
     

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• Ouch.  Jake Peavy hits the DL.  His Yahoo player card had this listed: "RHP Jake Peavy could miss more than a month with a strained flexor mass to the forearm side of his elbow. Peavy was placed on the 15-day disabled list after an MRI exam showed fluids around the ligament in the elbow".  I'll wait to read Will Carroll's analysis, but don't plan on Peavy being back next week.
• The A's put IF Donnie Murphy on the DL with a sore right elbow, recalling P Dallas Braden [MiLB Value -$3.65].
• The Nats have put Ronnie Belliard on the DL with a strained left calf.  They called up Chris Schroder [MiLB Value $9.66] from AAA Columbus.  Schroder sports a career 10.96 K/9 in the minors, and could be a decent MR for NL Only leagues.

Transactions:

• Jacque Jones is a Marlin.  Exiled from Detroit, he is expected to become the Fish's starting CF, pushing Alfredo Amezaga to the bench.
• Seattle called up Jeremy Reed [MiLB Value $23.04] to take the spot vacated by Jeff Clement.  Reed has put up good numbers this year at AAA - a .349 AVG, 6 HR, 6 SB.  If he gets the PT, he may be worth watching.

Misc.:

• The Braves will give Jorge Campillo a start.  He's had a 1.27 ERA in a relief role this season.