Nine Bo Jacksons

Waiver Wire Review

Here's some players out there in the NBJs 12 team mixed league:

• C: Raul Casanova, NYM: He's taking advantage of Brian Schneider's hospitalization, going 6 for 16 with a HR, 3 R, and 2 RBI.  Casanova is a quick fix, as Schneider should be back in the Mets' lineup sooner than later.
• 1B: Mike Sweeney, OAK: Although he won't be a permanent fix, Sweeney is clearly on a hot streak.  Ride the wave of production out.
• 2B: Rich Aurilia, SFG: A very flexible player with four position eligibility, Aurilia is 6 for his last 13 with 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI and 1 SB.  Take it while you can.
• 3B: Melvin Mora, BAL: One of the few 3Bs on the waiver wire with regular PT secured, Mora is 9 for his last 28 with 5 RBI.  He's also hitting well with RISP, so decent RBI value should be found.
• SS: Brendan Ryan, STL: Finally off of the DL, Ryan brings 3 position eligibility to the table. If he gets regular PT, he's a decent source for SB.
• OF: Jose Guillen, KCR: Still hitting below the Mendoza line overall, Guillen has got things working lately.  A .286 AVG and 2 HR in the past week is a good sign that he's getting warm.
• OF: David Murphy, TEX: 8 for his last 24 with 7 RBI, Murphy has been pretty solid all season.  He won't be a game changer, but a good stop-gap.
• OF: Reed Johnson, CHC: Felix Who?  Johnson has done a pretty good job in CF for the Cubbies.  He seems to have locked down sufficient PT to warrant an add.
• P: Chad Gaudin, OAK: He's been pretty solid in his 4 outings since his 1st start of the season.  Not going to rack up elite K levels, but certainly can hold his own.  He's one of the reasons why Oakland is as good as they are.
• P: Bronson Arroyo, CIN: As noted the other day in BP, his terrible numbers thus far are going to come down.  The 8.42 K/9 is a little out of his neighborhood, but any regression there should be offset as the other rate stats come down as the BABIP comes down.
• P: Greg Smith, OAK: Looking at his minor league numbers, there seems to be two sides to Greg Smith.  This year in Oakland, they're getting the good side.  A 2.73 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP through 33 IP is something any fantasy roster would take.
• P: Taylor Buchholz, COL: He's been pretty solid out of the Colorado bullpen, logging 16.1 IP of 1.65 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.  The Ks aren't where you'd like them to be for a MR option, but the rate stats are looking good thus far.
• P: Aaron Cook, COL: Although he is due for regression, I'd ride the wave of productivity while Cook is on it.  A 2.41 ERA and a 1.15 IP is pretty impressive.

Position Review: 2nd Base

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Best HR Source: Chase Utley [10]
Best R Source: Chase Utley [24]
Best RBI Source: Chase Utley [21]
Best SB Source: Brian Roberts [10]
Best AVG Source: Chase Utley [39 H in 107 AB]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Chase Utley-$46.37-A bit of a down week for Utley...only a .391 AVG with only 1 HR and only 6 R.  Is it too early to hear MVP chants in April?  Buy.
2. Brian Roberts-$23.48-As expected, he's stealing bases at a position leading level.  His batting average, currently stuck at .269, should continue to rise.  Buy.
3. Brandon Phillips-$21.78-One hell of a week for Phillips: 3 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R, 1 SB, and a .423 AVG.  He's obviously on a hot streak, but looking like a 30/30 season might be reach.  Buy.
4. Ian Kinsler-$18.22-He's swiped 6 bases thus far, but only hit 1 HR.  The AVG is currently at .292, which is unsustainable for Kinsler.  I'd expected more power to come, offsetting any dropoff in AVG.  Buy.
5. Jose Lopez-$17.88-I've been selling on Lopez for a while, but he keeps hanging around.  If he keeps it up for another few weeks, I'll change my mind, but for now I'm a skeptic.  Sell.
6. Orlando Hudson-$14.67-A hot week for Hudson, with a .357 AVG, 5 R, 3 RBI, and a SB.  His AVG is a little low at .271 overall, and I think that once his hot streak ends, his value will drop.  Sell.
7. Mark DeRosa-$13.45-He dropped a little bit in value, but I'm still a skeptic on DeRosa being a $10+ player.  Sell.
8. Dustin Pedroia-$13.05-Just 4 for his last 27, Pedroia is coming back to Earth.  I think it's a good time to swipe him away.  Buy.
9. Kelly Johnson-$11.19-Johnson hit .273 over the past week, with 1 HR, 1 SB, 3 R and 5 RBI.  He's starting to put up better numbers, so the window may be closing on skeptical Johnson owners.  Buy.
10. Rickie Weeks-$10.36-A down week for Weeks, 4 for 22 with 3 R scored.  If he's not hitting HRs and swiping bases, his value is nil.  That's part of the risk of owning Weeks, but he can really pay off at times.  Buy.

Smoltz to Close for the Braves?

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, John Smoltz "hopes to be back pitching in 15 to 30 days and said he would consider returning to the closer role."  He has to get healthy first, of course, as he's currently on the DL for inflammation in the biceps and the rotator cuff.  Also, I'd assume Frank Wren and Bobby Cox would be involved in the decision as well.

Regardless, if the move is made, it could unfold one of two ways for the fantasy world.  If he stays a starter, he's going to remain a big injury risk, which limits his value.  You'd take a fully healthy, starting John Smoltz over a fully healthy, closing John Smoltz; but how likely is it that Smoltz can be a fully healthy starter for the rest of the season?  This second DL stint before the end of April has made me a skeptic.  If he takes over the closing role, this would obviously severely diminish Rafael Soriano's value, but he'd still be a valuable MR option.  If history tells us anything, Smoltz is much more likely to stay healthy as a closer.  Taking the three full seasons in which he closed games, he averaged 75.43 IP with 48 SVs, a 2.47 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP with a 9.66 K/9 and a 5.4 K/BB ratio.

Using some funny math, I took Smoltz's production as a starter thus far and then used past numbers to predict what numbers he'd put up as a closer once he returns (targeting May 21 as a return date).  Using BP's projection as a 200 IP starter, his value was $28.69.  Using my funny math projection, his value would be $27.33 as a starter-turned-closer.  If BP's 200 IP starter projection turned out to be correct, he'll stand to lose $1.36 of value.  I don't think he'd meet that 200 IP projection as a starter, especially after two April DL stints.

So, the question is, is it better to have Smoltz as an injury risk starter or a healthy closer?  I'll take the second option.  Although it's easily to best option to minimize risk, we'll have to wait and see what Smoltz, Wren and Cox decide.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• A-Rod hit the DL, as his strained right quad was more severe than we previously knew.  15 days without the #1 pick in the fantasy world isn't a good thing for many owners.  Morgan Ensberg should get an increase in PT.
• The Red Sox activated 3B Mike Lowell, DFA'ing RP Bryan Corey.
• The long awaited season debut of Scott Kazmir will occur this Sunday.  The most likely candidates to be moved off of the 25 man roster are Jason Hammel, Edwin Jackson, and Andy Sonnanstine.
• John Smoltz will hit the DL with severely inflamed biceps and inflammation of the rotator cuff, which will not require surgery.
• Shane Victorino returned from the DL last night.  He didn't start in CF, as Charlie Manuel wanted to stay with Jason Werth's hot bat.
• Moises Alou will return from the DL by Friday.  One possible way to make space for him on the roster will be to place C Brian Schneider on the DL.

Transactions:

• The Nomo comeback attempt is officially over, as he was released by the Royals.
• The Orioles called up Ps Garrett Olson [MiLB value $4.44] and Rob McCrory [MiLB value $1.39], sending INF Brandon Fahey to AAA and DFA'ing Greg Aquino.  Olson makes for a decent RP add in AL Only leagues.
• Ray "Burger" King is now a free agent, refusing to accept an outright assignment from the Nats.  Let the bidding war commence.
• Franklin Morales will be optioned to AAA, as his 6.39 ERA is a good sign he needs a little more seasoning.

Misc.

• I'm not one to make comments on individual performances in a game, but Max Scherzer's debut was ridiculous.  4.3 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 0 H.

Position Review: 1st Base

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Best HR Source: Lance Berkman [8]
Best R Source: Lance Berkman [24]
Best RBI Source: Lance Berkman [23]
Best SB Source: Lance Berkman [4]
Best AVG Source: Albert Pujols [34 H in 89 AB]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Lance Berkman-$39.02-3 HRs, 1 SB, and a .409 AVG over the past week.  Clearly, it's a hot streak, but the Big Puma is putting together an MVP season.  His fantasy value is heightened by Cecil Cooper's emphasis on running more.  Lance will be elite for the entirety of the season.  Buy.
2. Derrek Lee-$34.53-Lee cooled off with the longball, but he's still scorching with a .364 AVG over the past week, even stealing a base.  Buy.
3. Albert Pujols-$28.69-As always, Albert killed Astros pitching this past weekend.  Over the past week, he's hitting .458 with a HR, 5 R, and 6 RBI.  Rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated.  Buy.
4. Conor Jackson-$25.52-As I've mentioned before, Jackson has a HR ceiling that will prevent him from being an elite fantasy 1B.  However, for someone who was going late in drafts, he's going to look like a ridiculous bargain.  The D-Backs are flat out amazing, and Jackson is right in the middle of their lineup.  A season with a .300 AVG, 20 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI and 5 SB is completely possible.  Buy.
5. Casey Kotchman-$18.67-The 6 HRs are out of Kotchman's range, as noted by Joe Sheehan.  Regression should be expected in that category, and Kotchman is hitting towards the bottom of the Angels lineup, so expect regression in the team dependent stats.  Sell.
6. Mike Jacobs-$15.92-Just 1 for his last 15, the dropoff is occurring.  Jacobs power is legit, but so is his .260ish AVG.  Sell.
7. Justin Morneau-$15.38-Morneau is hitting .270 on the year, with 6 dingers and 21 RBI.  A decent start, but I think once the rest of the field comes around, Morneau's value will fall.  Sell.
8. Carlos Guillen-$14.56-An incredibly flexible fantasy player with three position eligibility [1B/3B/SS], there's no reason to use him anywhere but SS unless you have a ridiculous MI corps.  Guillen is pretty much what he is, and this is about right.  Buy.
9. Mark Teixeira-$11.04-A slow start for Teix, but his .320 AVG over the past week is a good sign.  I think this is a good chance to take advantage of a panicked Teixeira owner.  Buy.
10. Paul Konerko-$11.01-The newest 10 and 5 player, Konerko is hitting just .229 on the season, but .360 over the past week.  This is a tough one to predict, but I tend to shy away from aging players of Konerko's skillset.  Sell.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• Hank Blalock will hit the DL with a hamstring injury that should sideline him for at least 3 weeks.  They'll put him on the DL before tonight's game, so we don't exactly know what roster move they'll make.  Ramon Vazquez and German Duran should get the PT at 3B.
• Grady Sizemore missed his second straight game due to a sprained ankle.  The injury obviously isn't serious, but the Tribe is being cautious with his return.  For last nights game, Franklin Gutierrez moved over to CF, with David Dellucci in LF and Jason Michael in RF.
• John Smoltz is having his right shoulder examined today, and we should know how this injury will play out in the next couple of days.
• St. Louis placed Brad Thompson on the DL with elbow inflammation, rescinding the demotion he was given five days ago. 

Transactions:

• The Reds sent reliever Todd Coffey to the minors, calling up reliever Bill Bray to take his place.  After missing time in spring training with a sore shoulder, Bray had 8.2 IP of 1.04 ERA ball, with a 0.81 WHIP and 14 K [15.37 K/9].  He's certainly worth an NL Only add if you need another middle reliever.

Misc.:

• Barry Zito was sent to the bullpen by the Giants.  Worst. Contract. Ever.

MiLB Report: AA

I must admit, I'm not the most well versed person on AA prospects.  I know the "big name" prospects, but not the "tweeners".  Most of them will get on my radar when they hit AAA, but there is the occassional AA to MLB transaction that occurs.  Although I won't be able to give comment about the prospects, I thought it would be useful to keep valuations for AA prospects on file.

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

The Top 10:

1. Jesus Guzman-$49.83-3B/2B-OAK
2. Freddy Guzman-$42.92-OF-DET
3. Luke Hughes-$41.77-3B-MIN
4. Mike Carp-$34.65-1B/DH-NYM
5. Chris Davis-$34.04-1B-TEX
6. Max Ramirez-$31.43-C/DH-TEX
7. Matt LaPorta-$31.38-OF-MIL
8. Luke Montz-$31.17-C-WAS
9. Mat Gamel-$30.39-3B-MIL
10. Matt Carson-$30.03-OF/DH-NYY

The Top 10:

1. Daryl Thompson-$35.54-CIN
2. Daniel McCutchen-$30.04-NYY
3. Sergio Romo-$26.22-SFG
4. Jose Vaquedano-$24.52-BOS
5. Douglas Fister-$24.16-SEA
6. Chris Jakubauskas-$23.37-SEA
7. Carlos Rosa-$22.87-KCR-
8. Chris Waters-$22.86-BAL
9. Edwin Moreno-$20.97-SDP
10. Warner Madrigal-$20.70-LAA

MiLB Report: AAA

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Nelson Cruz-$58.70-This guy is still playing out of his mind.  7 HR, 8 SB, 23 RBI, 23 R and a .364 AVG in 66 ABs.  It's good to see him running more - he only had 1 SB in 162 AAA ABs last year.  He's doing all he can to force himself into the OF picture in Texas, and Jason Botts' .158 AVG is doing him any favors either.
2. Matthew Brown-$50.98-Brown continues to mash away.  With Figgins manning the hot corner in LA, Brown is likely to stay in Salt Lake City.
3. Jeff Clement-$43.05-No one was more disappointed to hear the news of Kenji Johjima's 3 year extension than Clement and fantasy players.  His best chance for regular PT occurs at DH, where he's currently blocked by Jose Vidro, or at 1B, where he's currently blocked by Richie Sexson.  Barring a trade, I don't see a clear path to the bigs for Clement in the near future.
4. Terry Tiffee-$41.22-Quad-A.
5. Ian Stewart-$40.60-Unless Stewart learns to play 2B, he's stuck in the minors for a while.  It's a shame - he's beating the daylight out of the ball right now.
6. Brett Carroll-$40.47-With Alfredo Amezaga [.263 AVG] and Cody Ross [.149 AVG] currently manning CF for the the Fish, you'd have to think Carroll might get a look.  He hasn't consistently produced at levels like this, but he's clearly got the power potential.  At 25 years old, it's not impossible to think there's something here.
7. Mike Hessman-$37.65-Quad-A.
8. Dewayne Wise-$37.19-Quad-A.
9. Mike Aviles-$35.26-Quad-A.
10. Jay Bruce-$34.59-Qua...wait.  Not this one.  Bruce is still destroying the ball in Louisville.  He's playing most of his time in CF, and if the Jerry Hairston/Corey Patterson situation finally comes to result we all hope it will come to, Bruce will step right in and mash from Day 1.

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Darrell Rasner-$37.09-Only 3 ER in 31 IP is pretty dominant.  With a pretty set rotation in New York, his best shot is a bullpen job.  His 27 years of age don't exactly shout with upside.
2. Max Scherzer-$29.56-As mentioned earlier, he got the call up to the bigs and is worth a #1 waiver claim.
3. Justin Lehr-$24.32-Quad-A.
4. Shawn Camp-$24.20-Quad-A.
5. Jo-Jo Reyes-$23.98-1 ER in 21 IP with 24 Ks.  He's knocking on Frank Wren's door, that's for sure.
6. Nick Adenhart-$23.88-The K rate isn't exactly there yet [5.52 K/9], but he's still dominating AAA with a 0.87 ERA in 31 IP.  If his K rate approaches his previous 7.98 career mark, there's an excellent pickup if he makes the bigs.  The Angels rotation isn't exactly the most healthy one, so he'll be in consideration at some point soon.
7. Joe Nelson-$23.40-Quad-A.
8. Brian Sanches-$23.09-Quad-A.
9. Craig Hansen-$21.21-After a cup of tea in Boston, Hansen was sent back down to AAA Pawtucket.  As a reliever, he's going to be a setup man to Papelbon, at best.
10. Frank Francisco-$21.07-Quad-A.

Position Review: Catcher

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Best HR Source: Brian McCann & Mike Napoli [5]
Best R Source: Joe Mauer [16]
Best RBI Source: Bengie Molina [16]
Best SB Source: Ivan Rodriguez & Gregg Zaun [2]
Best AVG Source: Victor Martinez [26 H in 71 AB]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Ryan Doumit-$20.75-From April 20-27, he went 10 for 22 with 2 HR and 4 RBI.  From a catcher, I'll gladly take a week with a .455 AVG.  Doumit won't be a top tier C, but he could certainly fit the billing of a draft "steal" if he's the 5th or 6th best C - a ceiling he could reach.  Buy.
2. Brian McCann-$20.39-Another solid week from McCann, who's making me forget entirely about his '07 season.  Although the jury is still out here, as he's not even at the century mark for ABs, I think he's going to compete for top billing at the position. Buy.
3. A.J. Pierzynski-$18.32-Sorry A.J., I'm still not buying your .906 OPS.  Sell.
4. Bengie Molina-$17.87-Name that Molina!  Bengie easily did the best of the 3 other catching Molinas this past week.  6 for 15 with a dinger ain't too shabby from a catcher.  Somebody has to drive in the league worst total of 84 runs the Giants have scored so far.  He'll lose a few dollars value from here, but he's a solid bet.  Buy.
5. Geovany Soto-$15.80-Despite striking out five different times yesterday, he's still showing us the power we drafted him for.  Buy.
6. Joe Mauer-$12.77-Still without a HR or a SB, it's pretty amazing Mauer's value is this high.  He is hitting .305 on the year, and is scoring tons of runs.  Once he adds the 10 HR and 10 SB, I think he's going to justify his cost.  Buy.
7. Russell Martin-$12.64-Welcome to the Top 10, Mr. Martin.  He's gone 11 for his last 21 with 4 R and 3 RBI, so that'll explain the sudden jump in value.  He was hitting .197 as recent as April 20, so it's safe to say he's coming out of his early season slump.  Buy.
8. Jeff Mathis-$12.45-Mathis has made the most of a platoon with Mike Napoli, currently hitting .325 with 3 HR and 1 SB in 40 ABs.  Given his playing time, though, it's unlikely he maintains this value.  Sell.
9. Ivan Rodriguez-$11.73-Looks like he's coming out of his slump.  8 for his last 24 with 3 R and 5 RBI is a good sign, but I think Pudge's days as a $12 catcher are numbered.  Sell.
10. Paul Bako-$10.67-This is one of the more shocking names to see, I'll admit that.  He is having a great season, and I could see how his good play could force the Reds to use him and David Ross more evenly.  Regardless, if Paul Bako is a $10+ catcher at the end of the season...I'll avoid making a committment here, because I really don't want to eat my hat.  Sell.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• David Ortiz missed his second straight game with a bruised knee, initially sustained in a head first slide on Friday.  The injury comes just when he was getting hot with 16 RBI in the past 8 games.
• Currently on the DL following hernia surgery, Moises Alou is going to get an MRI on his swollen ankle.
• Jorge Posada will hit the DL for this first time in his career.  He's also going to visit with Dr. James Andrews, as he said "The M.R.I. showed a strained muscle, and I think it’s more than that."  Surgery is not completely ruled out.
• Kevin Correia was placed on the DL with a left oblique strain, leaving him out for up to a month.  Pat Misch was called up from AAA, and will go into the bullpen for now, though he may eventually be a 5th starter.  I think Misch is worth an NL Only add, though he won't rack up the Ks.

Transactions:

• As expected, the Tribe optioned Jeremy Sowers back to Buffalo after his spot start against the Yanks.  They recalled OF Brad Snyder from AAA to take his roster spot.  With Jake Westbrook out for a month, it looks like the Tribe's rotation will be set with Sabathia, Carmona, Lee, Byrd and Laffey.