Nine Bo Jacksons

Happy Opening Day: Part 3

Although some people don't like that MLB opened up the season in Japan, I'm a fan of the system.  I think getting three opening days [March 25, 30, and 31] is like getting three Christmases, Hanukkahs, Kwanzaas, Walpurgisnachts, etc.  I won't get to watch my team until 9:05 CST, but I hope y'all have a great time watching your teams today.  Boston and Oakland fans get screwed again, first having to wake up at 6 AM EST/3 AM PST to watch Opening Day Part 1 then not getting a game on Opening Day Part 3.

Please forgive the probably terrible internet translations, but I want to say "Happy Opening Day" in all the different languages of people who have read Nine Bo Jacksons:

• Spanish: Día feliz de Apertura
• French: Le Jour heureux d'Ouverture
• German: Glückliche Öffnung Tag
• Norwegian: Glad Åpnende Dag

Time for some opening day predictions:

• AL East Winner: Boston Red Sox
• AL Central Winner: Cleveland Indians
• AL West Winner: L.A. Angels
• AL Wild Card Winner: New York Yankees
• ALCS: Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox

• NL East Winner: New York Mets
• NL Central Winner: Chicago Cubs
• NL West Winner: L.A. Dodgers
• NL Wild Card Winner: Atlanta Braves
• NLCS: New York Mets over Chicago Cubs

• World Series: Cleveland Indians over New York Mets

• AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
• NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
• AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
• NL MVP: Derrek Lee
• AL ROY: Evan Longoria
• NL ROY: Jay Bruce

BP's HACKING MASS

This is one of the funner competitions out there.  HACKING MASS stands for Huckabay's Annual Call to Keep Immobility Next to Godliness: Maximus Aggregatus Stiffisimus Sensire.  BP is going to give $399 and an autographed picture of Bud Selig to whoever can produce the worst 10 man roster [8 hitters, 2 pitchers].  You don't even have to be a subscriber to participate.  This is kind of like the anti-fantasy team.  They use a metric called ESPN (Exuded Stiff Points, Net) to quantify sucktitude. For hitters, the formula used is (.8-OPS)*PA.  For pitchers, the formula is (ERA-4.5)*IP/3.  So, it's not enough just to plain suck - they have to suck while getting playing time.  This is where the real fantasy impact of Woody Williams' release was - he'd be an All Star in this format.

My Roster:

• C: Jason Kendall
• 1B: Daniel Ortmeier
• 2B: Jose Lopez
• 3B: Melvin Mora
• SS: Adam Everett
• LF: Emil Brown
• CF: Carlos Gomez
• RF: Darin Erstad
• P: Livan Hernandez
• P: Luis Mendoza

I encourage y'all to participate.  Click here for an excel sheet with projected ESPN values.

Injuries: Dodgers Third Basemen

The Injuries: Nomar Garciaparra has a broken bone in his right hand, and Andy LaRoche has a broken thumb.

Timetables for Return: Nomar's return seems to be unknown.  He hasn't played since the injury [March 7], and can't seem to swing a bat without pain.  As for LaRoche, he underwent surgery on his thumb and should return in the middle of May.

Fantasy Impact: While neither of these injuries are news, we finally received some clarification on who will get the PT at 3B [see below].  I'd stash LaRoche if possible, but drop Nomar.

Affected Players:

• Blake Dewitt: Although he's only had 282 ABs above High-A, Dewitt seems like the opening day starter.  He'll split time with Tony Abreu.  Due to the lack of upper level experience, Dewitt will be a natural liability in AVG. Since we don't have a good enough grasp on the PT breakdown, I can't give dollar values for him - but he's a speculative NL Only add if you need someone to man the hot corner for a few weeks.  He's as good as gone once LaRoche is back, though.
• Tony Abreu: After hitting .355/.399/.517 against AAA pitching last year, Abreu doesn't have much left to prove in the minors.  The power was probably a mirage, but he still projects as a guy who'll produce a good average and be okay everywhere else.  He'll have eligibility at 2B, SS, and 3B in Yahoo leagues, and makes for a solid NL Only add.  I was able to pick him up as a free agent a week ago in my league, so he may still be out there in yours.  Unlike Dewitt, Abreu should be around for the season.

Injury: Alejandro De Aza

The Injury: The Marlins placed OF Alejandro De Aza on the 15-day DL with a high ankle sprain, suffered when he collided with a teammate in the pursuit of a flyball Saturday night.

Timetable for Return: De Aza could be gone 4 to 6 weeks.

Fantasy Impact: This probably only affects NL Only leagues. De Aza was expected to get time in CF with Cody Ross, and may still get that when he returns.  High ankle sprains can linger, though, and this could affect De Aza's one major league ready tool, base stealing.  The Marlins really should put him in AAA for the season, and good play from Ross could encourage them to do that. 

Affected Players: The aforementioned Ross should get the lion's share of PT in CF, though Alfredo Amezaga will get time there as well. 

• Cody Ross: The job isn't exactly his, as he'll likely split time with Alfredo Amezaga, but Ross should see more time with De Aza gone for a while.  Ross could easily jack 20 HRs, but won't hit for enough average to warrant a mixed league add.  I'd put him at -$5.22 in Mixed leagues, and $6.56 in NL Only leagues.
• Alfredo Amezaga: The supersub is likely to spell Ross against righties when he's not penciled in to play a different position.  He might steal a few bases, but not enough to make up for his deficiencies elsewhere.  -$18.46 in Mixed leagues, and -$1.03 in NL Only leagues.

Source: ESPN / Associated Press

Transaction: Orioles Cut Gibbons

Transaction: The O's cut OF/DH Jay Gibbons, and will eat the $11.9M owed to him.

Analysis: Gibbons was pretty injury ridden for the past few seasons.  He hadn't played a full season since 2003.  He was still a decent source for HRs, but .277 seemed to be his ceiling for AVG [he eerily hit that mark in '03, '05, and '06].  I think this move makes sense for the rebuilding O's.  Gibbons' PT could be better used to get a better look at a player for the future.

Recommendation: Cut him loose in all formats, as the market for him in reality is unknown.  He might land a gig if he's willing to take a sizeable pay cut...then again, he will be making $11.9M for doing nothing over the next two years.  Would you work if you had that situation?

Affected Players:

• Scott Moore: The ex-Cubs 3B should see a bigger share of time all around, according to the article. He's a Quad-A type player, but should hit for some decent power if he gets the PAs.  He was a 20/20 player just two seasons ago at High A, but seems to have lost the base stealing magic.  I'd put him at -$6.93 in Mixed leagues, and $4.77 in AL Only formats.

Source: ESPN / Associated Press

Mike Pelfrey Named Mets' 5th Starter

The 9th overall pick from the 2005 draft was announced as the Mets' 5th starter, and should get the rock Saturday versus the Braves.  El Duque will likely hit the DL to start the season, and no one knows for certain what happens when he gets back.  The old man can still pitch, though in lesser and lesser amounts recently.  I'd DL him in both formats, if you can.

As for Pelfrey, he split time last season between AAA and the Show, and wasn't really good at either.  He posted a 4.01 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP with a 6.81 K/9 and a 2.15 K/BB in 74 IP at AAA, then posted a 5.57 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP with a 5.57 K/9 and a 1.15 K/BB in 72.7 IP in the Show.  He's clearly got a lot to prove with this opportunity.  BP flags him with a 36% breakout rate and a 70% improve rate, but that may be just because last year was pretty bad and eclipsing those marks is highly likely.  Regardless, I'd put him at -$6.20 in Mixed leagues and -$0.29 in NL Only leagues.  I picked him up in my NL Only league, and would recommend y'all to do the same.  If he shows the kind of upside the Mets thought they were getting with the 9th overall pick, he could solidify himself in the rotation quickly.

Source: ESPN / Associated Press

Transaction: Angels Send Wood, Morales to Minors

Some of the posts early on today may be old news to those who kept a close eye on the movements yesterday, but I'm just getting caught up after a day of schoolwork.

Transaction: The Angels sent  3B/SS Brandon Wood and 1B Kendry Morales to AAA Salt Lake City.  They also sent Ps Nick Adenhart & Alex Serrano, OFs Dee Brown & Terry Evans, and Cs Ryan Budde & Bobby Wilson down as well.  That's going to be a fun AAA team to watch.

Analysis: This will be Wood's second try at AAA.  He hit .272/.338/.497 there, playing 3B with a little bit of SS as well.  Everyone has to remember that Wood is still only entering his age 23 season, and is only two seasons removed from one of the best offensive minor league seasons in recent memory, when he hit .321/.381/.667 with 43 HRs and 21 SBs in 536 ABs at High-A.  It looks like Chone Figgins has 3B held down, so look for Wood to move back to SS at AAA.  As for Morales, he seems to already be able to hit high level pitching, logging a .326 AVG between AAA and MLB last year.  His slugging decreased though, and if you're going to be handicapped to 1B, you gotta slug there...although the Angels are starting Casey Kotchman, who hasn't slugged above .500 at any level since 2004.

Recommendation: Hang onto Wood in AL Only leagues, as I'd imagine he'll get the call quickly if he gets close to his '05 form.  Morales' picture is a little more complicated, as the best case scenario for him is to force into a platoon with Kotchman at 1B.  I'd let him go in AL Only's for now, though.

Affected Players:

• Casey Kotchman: This solidifies his job at 1B.  Given his projected playing time from BP, I'd put him at -$6.75 in Mixed leagues, and $5.34 in AL Only's.
• Erick Aybar: Wood was playing a little SS during spring training, so the demotion gives Aybar the clear cut majority of PT.  He'll swipe a few bases, that's for sure.  I'd put him at -$14.17 in Mixed leagues, and $8.10 in AL Only's.
• Maicer Izturis: He's clearly the main infield backup now, and should see time at 2B, SS and 3B.  I'd put him at -$7.07 in Mixed leagues, and $11.45 in AL Only's. 

Source: ESPN / Associated Press

Transaction: Woody Williams

Transaction: The Astros gave Woody Williams his unconditional release. 

Analysis: I saw Woody pitch his last game as an Astro last night, and I completely agree with Wade/McLane's decision to pay him $6.5M not to pitch.  His fastball had absolutely no life on it; it sat in the mid 80s.  He gave up 5 ER in 3 IP.  Woody has said he'll retire.

Recommendation: Do I even really have to say anything here?

Affected Players: Chris Sampson will get the 5th spot in the rotation.  He had a 2.91 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 528 minor league innings from '03 to '06.  That was done with a 5.69 K/9, but a 4.18 K/BB. Last year, his walk rate spiked up and was reflected in his 4.59 ERA and his 1.38 WHIP.  His peripheral ERA was 5.02, implying that the 4.59 was actually quite fluky.  His stuff isn't anywhere near good, but his command is pretty impressive at times.  Given BP's projections, I have Sampson worth -$10.31 in mixed leagues, and -$4.66 in NL Only leagues...but I think he might surprise some people if his command goes back anywhere near his minor league levels.  His BABIP [.294] was kind of high in comparison to his previous marks, and I think the defensive improvements the Astros made could really help him.  I'd consider him an NL Only sleeper, but hold off until he gets a few starts.

Nats to Start Johnson, Belliard

Manny Acta picked Nick Johnson and Ronnie Belliard to start on the right side of the infield over Dmitri Young and Felipe Lopez, respectively.  Let's review the players affected.

• Nick Johnson: Johnson is a must add in NL Only formats, but a borderline add in Mixed Leagues.  It really depends on how strong you are with your CIs.  I think he'll contribute everywhere but SBs as the cleanup guy for the Nats.  If your league takes OBP into account, the "OBP Jesus" is a no-brainer.
• Ronnie Belliard: If he's out there in NL Only leagues, pick him up.  In Mixed formats, hold off for a while.  I think he's capable of producing decent numbers for a 2B, but I'm hesitant to recommend him for even a MI spot because of Lopez's presence.  Although Belliard will be "starting", I think Lopez could still see significant time [30% +] at 2B.
• Dmitri Young: Cut him in Mixed leagues, but hang onto him in NL Only leagues.  He's still going to get PT, just probably around the 30-35% range.  Unlike Lopez, Young is limited to one position.
• Felipe Lopez: Although he's said in the past that he wouldn't be happy on the bench,
  he's still in a position to spell both Guzman at SS and Belliard at 2B.  He could still easily get 500+ PAs, but it remains to be seen if he'll be dealt as a consequence.  Keep him in NL Only leagues, and I wouldn't pull the rip cord in Mixed formats until there's more clarification on his new status.

Injury: Doug Davis

The Injury: Davis was diagnosed thyroid cancer.

Timetable for Return: Davis will pitch on April 3, then undergo surgery on April 10.  After that, Arizona team President Derrick Hall said "...it’s too difficult now to predict any timing related to it...there is a chance he won’t be ready this season."

Fantasy Impact: Davis did not have an ADP record on MockDraftCentral, but he was taken in Round 19 on my NL Only draft.  The injury won't destroy many fantasy rosters, but it certainly eliminates a back of the fantasy rotation starter from consideration in NL only leagues.

Affected Players: The D-Backs were pretty much set with Webb & Haren at the top of the rotation, with Randy Johnson and Micah Owings also involved.  The Davis injury comes out of left field, certainly throwing a boomerang at the D-Backs' rotation.  Edgar Gonzalez or Billy Buckner could be in line for the 5 spot, but we just don't know at this point.

Recommendation: This is a terrible situation, mostly for the Davis'.  I sadly recommend for him to be cut in all formats.  Of all the injuries we'll see throughout the season, this is the worst type.  We all wish that every player would be healthy so every player could realize their full potential.  I think the entire baseball community would agree with me in wishing Doug & his family nothing but the best.  I'm one of the many in this country who has lost loved ones to cancer.  Please join me in making a donation to the American Cancer Society in honor of Doug Davis.  We can cure cancer in our lifetimes...yes, we can.