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Main | March 2008 »

February 29, 2008

Around The Horn: 3rd Basemen

I'm going to start including these charts with the "Around The Horn" posts.  I should have charts up for the previous positions at some point today.

3bbig_6

Rank. Name - Team - $ Value - ADP (Courtesy of www.mockdraftcentral.com)
1. Alex Rodriguez - NYY - $45.26 - 1.02
ADP Comparables: Hanley Ramirez ($36.92), David Wright ($36.64), Jose Reyes ($33.60)

2. David Wright - NYM - $36.64 - 3.66
ADP Comparables: Alex Rodriguez ($45.26), Hanley Ramirez ($36.92), Jose Reyes ($33.60), Matt Holliday ($37.82), Jimmy Rollins ($30.33)

3. Miguel Cabrera - DET - $36.23 - 7.55
ADP Comparables: Jose Reyes ($33.60), Matt Holliday ($37.82), Jimmy Rollins ($30.33), Chase Utley ($30.82), Albert Pujols ($39.10), Ryan Howard ($33.39)

4. Ryan Braun - MIL - $33.29 - 13.72
ADP Comparables: Prince Fielder ($28.04), Carl Crawford ($25.97), Alfonso Soriano ($26.05), Grady Sizemore ($25.81), David Ortiz ($36.65), Carlos Beltran ($21.60)

5. Aramis Ramirez - CHC - $20.03 - 33.15
ADP Comparables: Russell Martin ($26.80), Alex Rios ($16.09), Magglio Ordonez ($17.62), Brian Roberts ($18.55), Manny Ramirez ($14.67), Justin Morneau ($17.07)

6. Garrett Atkins - COL - $17.97 - 49.68
ADP Comparables: Travis Hafner ($20.75), Troy Tulowitzki ($16.43), Nick Markakis ($20.17), J.J. Putz ($20.64), C.C. Sabathia ($25.16), Eric Byrnes ($11.86)

7. Chipper Jones - ATL - $17.22 - 65.50
ADP Comparables: Torii Hunter ($17.83), Robinson Cano ($18.35), Francisco Rodriguez ($17.85), Carlos Zambrano ($10.72), Ian Kinsler ($10.33), Scott Kazmir ($16.67)

8. Ryan Zimmerman - WAS - $16.42 - 86.76
ADP Comparables: Chris Young [SP] ($17.01), Jose Valverde ($14.80), Paul Konerko ($11.74), Nick Swisher ($9.84), Jason Bay ($11.73), Hideki Matsui ($12.61)

9. Chone Figgins - LAA - $10.80 - 54.15
ADP Comparables: Eric Byrnes ($11.86), Carlos Guillen ($12.56), John Lackey ($14.93), Joe Nathan ($20.35), Brian McCann ($22.48), Cole Hamels ($23.40)

10. Adrian Beltre - SEA - $10.61 - 111.62
ADP Comparables: Juan Pierre ($7.61), Delmon Young ($11.97), Rickie Weeks ($6.53), Brett Myers ($10.51), Ben Sheets ($11.80), Trevor Hoffman ($12.62)

11. Edwin Encarnacion - CIN - $6.15 - 183.18
ADP Comparables: Joe Borowski ($3.86), Michael Cuddyer ($3.83), Derek Lowe ($6.15), Orlando Hudson ($4.70), Brandon Lyon (-$4.65), Eric Gagne ($7.66)

12. Mark Reynolds - ARI - $5.89 - 316.51
ADP Comparables: Shaun Marcum (-$3.72), Jason Bartlett (-$2.86), Kurt Suzuki ($2.30), Lastings Milledge ($1.27), Matt Diaz (-$1.16), Wily Mo Pena (-$9.76)

13. Josh Fields - CWS - $4.83 - 173.74
ADP Comparables: Dustin McGowan ($14.20), Kevin Youkilis ($4.60), Philip Hughes ($2.49), Adam Wainwright ($3.05), Dustin Pedroia ($6.58), Kevin Gregg ($4.15)

14. Evan Longoria - TBR - $4.42 - 230.06
ADP Comparables: Andy Pettitte (-$0.41), Jose Guillen ($3.98), Hank Blalock ($3.23), Moises Alou ($0.07), Randy Johnson ($7.13), Jason Varitek ($7.19)

15. Hank Blalock - TEX - $3.23 - 229.75
ADP Comparables: Frank Thomas ($3.96), Andy Pettitte (-$0.41), Jose Guillen ($3.98), Evan Longoria ($4.42), Moises Alou ($0.07), Randy Johnson ($7.13)

16. Kevin Kouzmanoff - SDG - $3.23 - 246.13
ADP Comparables: Matt Garza (-$6.30), Julio Lugo ($1.00), Ramon Hernandez ($7.45), Jeremy Accardo ($5.20), Melky Cabrera ($4.03), Mike Cameron ($3.41)

17. Alex Gordon - KCR - $2.80 - 139.43
ADP Comparables: Yovani Gallardo ($10.30), A.J. Burnett ($13.34), Mike Lowell ($2.44), Jeff Kent ($5.56), Pat Burrell ($7.80), Raul Ibanez ($7.54)

18. Mike Lowell - BOS - $2.44 - 138.47
ADP Comparables: Carlos Delgado ($6.22), Yovani Gallardo ($10.30), A.J. Burnett ($13.34), Alex Gordon ($2.80), Jeff Kent ($5.56), Pat Burrell ($7.54)

19. Troy Glaus - STL - $1.29 - 197.59
ADP Comparables: Eric Gagne ($7.66), Todd Jones ($1.00), Michael Bourn (-$11.95), Joe Blanton ($2.41), Khalil Greene ($2.82), J.R. TOwles ($12.46)

20. Ty Wigginton - HOU - $1.00 - 228.20
ADP Comparables: Stephen Drew ($0.02), Brian Wilson ($1.57), A.J. Pierzynski ($8.31), Frank Thomas ($3.96), Andy Pettitte (-$0.41), Jose Guillen ($3.98)

February 28, 2008

Draft Theory: All Stick No Pitch

This post is part of a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a strategy that will yield the most value, as measured by Team Score.  I do not state that this particular theory is the best; I am merely attempting to find out what a team looks like when this strategy is used.  Eventually, there will be a review of all of the strategies with data in place to evaluate which was the most successful.

The following roster was assembled without regards to position scarcity or ADP.  My goal: get the best hitters possible using picks one through fourteen, and then get the best pitchers with the remaining picks. 

Position: Player Name [Round Selected]
C: Geovany Soto [13]
C: J.R. Towles [14]
1B: Albert Pujols [1]
2B: Robinson Cano [7]
3B: Aramis Ramirez [3]
SS: Jhonny Peralta [12]
OF: Nick Markakis [4]
OF: Matt Kemp [6]
OF: Jeff Francoeur [8]
OF: Delmon Young [9]
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury [10]
MI: Placido Polanco [11]
CI: Garrett Atkins [5]
UT: David Ortiz [2]

Team Average Batter: 20.43 HR, 83.64 R, 85.00 RBI, 8.86 SB, .296 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 1.03 HR, 1.04 R, 1.10 RBI, 0.87 SB, 1.05 AVG= 5.10 Offensive Points [-1.93 than Max, +0.10 than Average, +1.07 than Replacement Level]

P: Pedro Martinez [15]
P: Greg Maddux [20]
P: Rich Harden [21]
P: Curt Schilling [22]
P: Hiroki Kuroda [23]
P: Jonathan Broxton [16]
P: Rafael Betancourt [17]
P: B.J. Ryan [18]
P: Heath Bell [19]

Team Average Pitcher: 7.5 W, 4.1 SV, 93.7 [7.53 K/9], 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP [3.21 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 0.89 W, 0.47 SV, 0.84 SO, 1.02 ERA, 1.03 WHIP= 4.24 Pitching Points [-2.56 than Max, -0.76 than Average, +0.43 than Replacement Level]

Total Team Points: 9.34 Points [-4.54 than Max, -0.66 than Average, +1.45 than Replacement Level]
Team Score [% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 24.16

Thoughts:

  • When we focus solely on hitting, we get 5.10 offensive points.  When we focus solely on pitching, we get 4.44 points.  By focusing solely on hitting, we gain 0.66 points.
  • When we focus solely on pitching, we get 6.53 pitching points.  When we focus solely on hitting, we get 4.24 pitching points.  By focusing solely on pitching, we gain 2.29 points.

From these numbers, your team would be better off focusing picks 1-9 on pitching than it would be focusing picks 1-14 on hitting.  However, simply drafting the players with the most value (regardless of position) yields 1.41 more team points than focusing picks 1-9 on pitching. This amount is incredibly marginal though, and probably a result of a change in the actions of the other people who were drafting.  Regardless, I think we can safely eliminate dedicating picks 1-14 solely on hitting, as it is the worse of the three theories we've tried, and worse by a significant margin.  Next up in our series: the author finally gets some sleep. ;-)

Draft Theory: All Pitch No Stick

This post is part of a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a strategy that will yield the most value, as measured by Team Score.  I do not state that this particular theory is the best; I am merely attempting to find out what a team looks like when this strategy is used.  Eventually, there will be a review of all of the strategies with data in place to evaluate which was the most successful.

The following roster was assembled without regards to position scarcity or ADP.  My goal: get the best pitchers possible using picks one through nine, and then get the best batters with the remaining picks.  Note: Although the roster looks similar to the one assembled under the "Ignore Position Scarcity and ADP" theory, the method used for this draft was different.  In the previous theory, I merely drafted by total value regardless of whether the player was a pitcher or a hitter.  In this theory, I did not draft a single hitter until I filled all of my pitching slots.

Position: Player Name [Round Selected]
C: Bengie Molina [22]
C: Carlos Ruiz [23]
1B: Joey Votto [11]
2B: Freddy Sanchez [18]
3B: Edwin Encarnacion [13]
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt [21]
OF: Matt Kemp [10]
OF: Jay Bruce [12]
OF: Josh Hamilton [15]
OF: Justin Upton [17]
OF: Jose Guillen [19]
MI: Ty Wigginton [20]
CI: Mark Reynolds [14]
UT: Evan Longoria [16]

Team Average Batter: 18.29 HR, 69.43 R, 71.79 RBI, 7.36 SB, .280 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 0.92 HR, 0.87 R, 0.93 RBI, 0.72 SB, 1.00 AVG= 4.44 Offensive Points [-2.59 than Max, -0.56 than Average, +0.41 than Replacement Level]

P: Johan Santana [1]
P: Jake Peavy [2]
P: Brandon Webb [3]
P: Tim Lincecum [4]
P: C.C. Sabathia [5]
P: Mariano Rivera [6]
P: Huston Street [7]
P: Billy Wagner [8]
P: Matt Capps [9]

Team Average Pitcher: 10.7 W, 15.5 SV, 143.0 K [8.55 K/9], 3.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP [3.59 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 1.27 W, 1.73 SV, 1.28 SO, 1.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP= 6.53 Pitching Points [-0.27 than Max, +1.53 than Average, +2.72 than Replacement Level]

Total Team Points: 10.97 Points [-2.91 than Max, +0.97 than Average, +3.08 than Replacement Level]
Team Score [% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 51.42

Thoughts: Placing picks one through nine only on pitching resulted in a loss of 1.41 team points.  Yes, the pitching staff remained the same, but taking Capps in Round 9 instead of waiting until Round 11 cost us. Lets see if its anything different with focusing on hitting first - that post is coming right up.

Around The Horn: Shortstops

Sorry for just getting this posted - I'm trying my best to make sure I do two posts per day.  I had a test for a class on the history of the CIA today that has kept me strung out on Folger's since about 1:30 AM CST.  Luckily, the essay was about the reasons for US intervention in Iran in 1953, so I nailed it. [Oil and fear is the answer; sound familiar?]

Without any further delay, let's look at some shortstops.

Ssbig

Rank. Name - Team - $ Value - ADP (Courtesy of www.mockdraftcentral.com)
1. Hanley Ramirez - FLA - $36.92 - 2.69
ADP Comparables: Alex Rodriguez ($45.26), David Wright ($36.64), Jose Reyes ($33.60), Matt Holliday ($37.82)

2. Jose Reyes - NYM - $33.60 - 3.78
ADP Comparables: Alex Rodriguez ($45.26), Hanley Ramirez ($36.92), David Wright ($36.64), Matt Holliday ($37.82), Jimmy Rollins ($30.33), Miguel Cabrera ($36.23)

3. Jimmy Rollins - PHI - $30.33 - 6.03
ADP Comparables: David Wright ($36.64), Jose Reyes ($33.60), Matt Holliday ($37.82), Miguel Cabrera ($36.23), Chase Utley ($30.82), Albert Pujols ($39.10)

4. Derek Jeter - NYY - $19.20 - 38.44
ADP Comparables: Justin Morneau ($17.07), Erik Bedard ($18.50), Brandon Webb ($25.76), Derrek Lee ($15.22), Josh Beckett ($20.16), Adam Dunn ($17.97)

5. Troy Tulowitzki - COL - $16.43 - 46.67
ADP Comparables: Bobby Abreu ($18.89), Jonathan Papelbon ($21.19), Travis Hafner ($20.75), Nick Markakis ($20.17), Garrett Atkins ($17.97), J.J. Putz ($20.64)

6. Michael Young - TEX - $16.36 - 81.65
ADP Comparables: Vernon Wells ($10.88), John Smoltz ($23.60), Adrian Gonzalez ($14.47), Felix Hernandez ($11.22), Jose Valverde ($14.80), Chris Young [SP] ($17.01)

7. Carlos Guillen - DET - $15.61 - 52.54
ADP Comparables: J.J. Putz ($20.64), C.C. Sabathia ($25.16), Eric Byrnes ($11.86), John Lackey ($14.93), Joe Nathan ($20.35), Chone Figgins ($10.80)

8. Miguel Tejada - HOU - $13.79 - 76.44
ADP Comparables: Scott Kazmir ($16.67), Aaron Harang ($16.12), Takashi Saito ($17.10), Roy Oswalt ($18.52), Rafael Furcal ($12.40), Brad Hawpe ($8.28)

9. Rafael Furcal - LAD - $12.40 - 77.97
ADP Comparables: Takashi Saito ($17.10), Miguel Tejada ($13.79), Roy Oswalt ($18.52), Brad Hawpe ($8.28), Vernon Wells ($10.88), John Smoltz ($23.60)

10. Jhonny Peralta - CLE - $6.04 - 175.60
ADP Comparables: Kevin Youkilis ($4.60), Adam Wainwright ($3.05), Philip Hughes ($2.49), Dustin Pedroia ($6.58), Kevin Gregg ($4.15), Ivan Rodriguez ($6.96)

11. Edgar Renteria - DET - $5.75 - 98.69
ADP Comparables: Shane Victorino ($4.04), Andruw Jones ($11.48), Mariano Rivera ($20.32), Javier Vazquez ($15.47), Jeff Francoeur ($12.75), Fausto Carmona ($7.17)

12. Orlando Cabrera - CWS - $5.17 - 124.88
ADP Comparables: Huston Street ($18.44), Howie Kendrick ($5.95), Johnny Damon ($8.36), Kenji Johjima ($13.83), Manny Corpas ($8.94), Matt Cain ($13.16)

13. J.J. Hardy - MIL - $3.59 - 131.74
ADP Comparables: Jacoby Ellsbury ($8.92), James Loney ($4.91), Brad Penny ($1.91), Chad Cordero ($9.17), Carlos Delgado ($6.22), John Maine ($4.91)

14. Khalil Greene - SDG - $2.82 - 196.69
ADP Comparables: Eric Gagne ($7.66), Todd Jones ($1.00), Michael Bourn (-$11.95), Troy Glaus ($1.29), Joe Blanton ($2.41), J.R. Towles ($12.46)

15. Felipe Lopez - WAS - $2.11 - 243.82
ADP Comparables: Jeremy Guthrie (-$12.65), Ramon Hernandez ($7.45), Matt Garza (-$6.30), Julio Lugo ($1.00), Kevin Kouzmanoff ($3.23), Zack Greinke ($4.37)

16. Julio Lugo - BOS - $1.00 - 244.67
ADP Comparables: Ramon Hernandez ($7.45), Matt Garza (-$6.30), Felipe Lopez ($2.11), Kevin Kouzmanoff ($3.23), Zack Greinke ($4.37), Melky Cabrera ($4.03)

Draft Theory: The All-Star Team

This post is part of a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a strategy that will yield the most value, as measured by Team Score. 

This particular post will focus on assembling a team comprised of the best players at each position.  This team in obviously unachieveable, as there is no chance that you'll be able to obtain the best player at each position.  Regardless, just as we've defined the replacement value team, we will now define the maximum level team.  As this series progresses, our goal will be to come as close to the maximum team value as possible.

Position: Player Name [ADP]
C: Victor Martinez [29.21]
C: Russell Martin [29.99]
1B: Albert Pujols [9.25]
2B: Chase Utley [8.00]
3B: Alex Rodriguez [1.03]
SS: Hanley Ramirez [2.69]
OF: Matt Holliday [5.76]
OF: Vladimir Guerrero [22.09]
OF: Alfonso Soriano [13.10]
OF: Carlos Lee [22.99]
OF: Carl Crawford [12.90]
MI: Jose Reyes [3.78]
CI: David Wright [3.70]
UT: David Ortiz [17.47]

Team Average Batter: 27.71 HR, 102.64 R, 98.43 RBI, 20.36 SB, .302 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 1.39 HR, 1.28 R, 1.28 RBI, 2.01 SB, 1.08 AVG=7.03 Offensive Points [+2.03 than Average, +3.00 than Replacement

Level]

P: Johan Santana [11.76]
P: Jake Peavy [20.00]
P: Brandon Webb [38.16]
P: Tim Lincecum [118.27]
P: C.C. Sabathia [51.07]
P: Jonathan Papelbon [43.57]
P: J.J. Putz [50.03]
P: Joe Nathan [54.43]
P: Mariano Rivera [98.21]

Team Average Pitcher: 10.68 W, 17.40 SV, 144.00 SO [8.73 K/9], 3.11 ERA, 1.11 WHIP [3.60 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 1.26 W, 1.95 SV, 1.28 SO, 1.18 ERA, 1.12 WHIP=6.80 Pitching Points [+1.80 than Average, +2.99 than Replacement Level]

Total Team Points: 13.88 Points [+3.88 than Average,+5.99 than Replacement Level]
Team Score [% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 100

Thoughts: This is what we should be shooting for.  Good luck getting all of these guys, though.  We've proven we can assemble a pitching staff that comes close to maximum value [only -0.27 less]; next, we'll try to get as close to the best offense we can.  If these numbers and ADPs tell me anything, it's that getting that kind of offense is going to be a lot harder than getting that kind of pitching staff.

February 27, 2008

Around The Horn: 2nd Basemen

2bbig

1. Chase Utley - PHI - $30.82 - 8.07
ADP Comparables: Matt Holliday ($37.82), Jimmy Rollins ($30.33), Miguel Cabrera ($36.23), Albert Pujols ($39.10), Ryan Howard ($33.39), Johan Santana ($42.30)

2. Brian Roberts - BAL - $18.55 - 34.88
ADP Comparables: Alex Rios ($16.09), Magglio Ordonez ($17.62), Aramis Ramriez ($20.03), Manny Ramirez ($14.67), Justin Morneau ($17.07), Erik Bedard ($18.50)

3. Robinson Cano - NYY - $18.35 - 64.01
ADP Comparables: Torii Hunter ($17.83), Hunter Pence ($17.27), Francisco Rodriguez ($17.85) , Carlos Zambrano ($10.72), Chipper Jones ($17.22), Scott Kazmir ($16.67)

4. Brandon Phillips -CIN - $17.40 - 20.14
ADP Comparables: David Ortiz ($36.65), Carlos Beltran ($21.60), Jake Peavy ($35.86), Vladimir Guerrero ($29.52), Ichiro Suzuki ($18.19), B.J. Upton ($17.15)

5. B.J. Upton - TBR - $17.15 - 22.84
ADP Comparables: Brandon Phillips ($17.40), Vladimir Guerrero ($29.52), Ichiro Suzuki ($18.19), Carlos Lee ($26.04), Mark Teixeira ($25.44), Lance Berkman ($23.24)

6. Dan Uggla - FLA - $11.31 - 105.24
ADP Comparables: Jeff Francoeur ($12.75), Jim Thome ($9.83), Fausto Carmona ($7.17), James Shields ($10.11), Jermaine Dye ($10.45), Rickie Weeks ($6.53)

7. Ian Kinsler - TEX - $10.33 - 66.05
ADP Comparables: Carlos Zambrano ($10.72), Chipper Jones ($17.22), Scott Kazmir ($16.67), Aaron Harang ($16.12), Takashi Saito ($17.10), Miguel Tejada ($13.79)

8. Placido Polanco - DET - $9.12 - 164.10
ADP Comparables: Kosuke Fukudome ($0.36), Pedro Martinez ($18.44), Jeremy Hermida ($2.71), Willy Taveras ($2.77), Jeremy Bonderman ($6.31), Kelly Johnson ($6.89)

9. Kelly Johnson - ATL - $6.89 - 167.41
ADP Comparables: Placido Polanco ($9.12), Willy Taveras ($2.77), Jeremy Bonderman ($6.31), Carlos Marmol ($1.68), Josh Hamilton ($6.24), Oliver Perez (-$0.56)

10. Dustin Pedroia - BOS - $6.58 - 177.22
ADP Comparables: Jhonny Peralta ($6.04), Ivan Rodriguez ($6.96), Kevin Gregg ($4.15), Michael Cuddyer ($3.83), Joe Borowski ($3.86), Derek Lowe ($6.15)

11. Rickie Weeks - MIL - $6.53 -108.31
ADP Comparables: Dan Uggla ($11.31), James Shields ($10.11), Jermaine Dye ($10.45), Juan Pierre ($7.61), Delmon Young ($11.97), Brett Myers ($10.51)

12. Freddy Sanchez - PIT - $6.25 - 265.67
ADP Comparables: Ubaldo Jimenez (-$23.28), Rick Ankiel ($2.21), Ryan Theriot (-$2.25), Mike Napoli ($3.57), Al Reyes ($4.24), Hideki Okajima ($2.20)

13. Howie Kendrick - LAA - $5.95 - 120.80
ADP Comparables: Francisco Liriano ($22.70), Todd Helton ($13.11), Huston Street ($18.44), Johnny Damon ($8.36), Orlando Cabrera ($5.17), Kenji Johjima ($13.83)

14. Jeff Kent - LAD - $5.56 - 141.41
ADP Comparables: A.J. Burnett ($13.34), Mike Lowell ($2.44), Alex Gordon ($2.80), Pat Burrell ($7.80), Brad Lidge ($9.06), Raul Ibanez ($7.54)

15. Orlando Hudson - ARI - $4.70 - 183.42
ADP Comparables: Michael Cuddyer ($3.83), Joe Borowski ($3.86), Derek Lowe ($6.15), Edwin Encarnacion ($6.15), Brandon Lyon (-$4.65), Eric Gagne ($7.66)

16. Ty Wigginton - HOU - $4.46 - 227.66
ADP Comparables: A.J. Pierzynski ($8.31), C.J. Wilson (-$2.39), Frank Thomas ($3.96), Hank Blalock ($3.23), Andy Pettitte (-$0.41), Jonathan Broxton ($12.12)

17. Felipe Lopez - WAS - $2.52 - 243.16
ADP Comparables: George Sherrill ($2.23), Ramon Hernandez ($7.45), Matt Garza (-$6.30), Julio Lugo ($1.00), Zack Greinke ($4.37), Mike Cameron ($3.41)

18. Aaron Hill - TOR - $2.22 - 200.29
ADP Comparables: Justin Towles ($12.46), Troy Glaus ($1.29), Kaz Matsui (-$6.26), B.J. Ryan ($10.29), Dontrelle Willis (-$8.27), Josh Willingham ($5.62)

19. Mark Ellis - OAK - $2.10 - 290.78
ADP Comparables: Jason Giambi (-$7.87), Yadier Molina (-$3.06), Eric Chavez (-$4.76), Casey Blake (-$4.28), Jerry Owens (-$4.32), Carlos Ruiz ($8.05)

20. Luis Castillo - NYM - $1.00 - 302.36
ADP Comparables: Rafael Betancourt ($11.04), David Weathers (-$0.58), Casey Kotchman (-$7.11), Greg Maddux ($7.91), Mark Teahen ($1.09), Pat Neshek ($5.31)

February 26, 2008

Draft Theory: Ignore Position Scarcity and ADP

This post is part of a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a strategy that will yield the most value, as measured by Team Score.  I do not state that this particular theory is the best; I am merely attempting to find out what a team looks like when this strategy is used.  Eventually, there will be a review of all of the strategies with data in place to evaluate which was the most successful.

I've decided on a new way of evaluating these theories.  As an example, if league average is 20 HR per player, and my team averages 20 HR per player, I'll receive a 1.0 for HRs [20/20=1].  If my team averages 30 HRs, I'll receive a 1.5 [30/20=1.5].  If my team averages 10 HRs, I'll receive a 0.5 [10/20=1.5].  Therefore, a perfectly average team with have a total team score of 10.0 [1.0 x 10 Categories = 10.0]. 
Our goal should be to far surpass league average (10.0), as being average won't win championships.  I know that this method of evaluation is not perfect, but a perfect method of evaluation (placing the projections of my team against the projections of 11 different teams) would take far too much time.  This method should still provide a decent way of evaluating which is the best drafting method.

The following roster was assembled without any regards to position scarcity or ADP data.  I simply drafted the player with the highest $ value.  I had pick #9 in this draft.

Position: Player Name [Round Selected]
C: Bengie Molina [22]
C: Carlos Ruiz [23]
1B: Todd Helton [10]
2B: Freddy Sanchez [19]
3B: Edwin Encarnacion [14]
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt [21]
OF: Matt Kemp [9]
OF: Jay Bruce [13]
OF: Josh Hamilton [16]
OF: Josh Willingham [17]
OF: Justin Upton [18]
MI: Ty Wigginton [20]
CI: Joey Votto [12]
UT: Mark Reynolds [15]

Team Average Batter: 18.21 HR, 70.43 R, 72.29 RBI, 7.43 SB, .282 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 0.92 HR, 0.88 R, 0.94 RBI, 0.73 SB, 1.00 AVG=4.47 Offensive Points [-2.56 than Max, -0.53 than Average, +0.44 than Replacement Level]

P: Johan Santana [1]
P: Jake Peavy [2]
P: Brandon Webb [3]
P: Tim Lincecum [4]
P: C.C. Sabathia [5]
P: Mariano Rivera [6]
P: Huston Street [7]
P: Billy Wagner [8]
P: Matt Capps [11]

Team Average Pitcher: 10.78 W, 15.44 SV, 143.00 SO [8.55 K/9], 3.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP [3.58 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 1.28 W, 1.73 SV, 1.28 SO, 1.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP=6.54 Pitching Points [-0.27 than Max, +1.54 than Average, +2.73 than Replacement Level]

Total Team Points: 11.01 Points [-2.83 than Max, +1.01 than Average, +3.17 than Replacement Level]

Team Score [% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 52.83

Thoughts: Damn, what a pitching staff.  I got each of my top 5 ranked SPs, and my #3, #5, #6, and #10 ranked RPs.  The only way to improve this staff was to replace Street, Wagner, and Capps with Papelbon, Putz, and Nathan.  Even then, the gain is marginal [0.27 points].  The offense was mediocre, below average in every category but batting average.  A good lesson learned here is that it is nearly possible to get the best pitching staff [-0.27 than Max]; obtaining the best hitters will be our next task.

Why shouldn't this theory be used?  Not accounting for position scarcity is one reason.  Bengie Molina and Carlos Ruiz isn't the greatest catching tandem.  Also, ignoring ADP data wasn't too smart.  Sure, Lincecum looks like an absolute beast with a projected 3.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 13 Wins and 196 K in 190 IPs; but why take him in the 4th round when you can take him in the 10th, and use that 4th round pick elsewhere?

Next up in our series of drafting theories: obtaining the best hitters possible.

Around The Horn: 1st Basemen

Around The Horn is a feature that will focus on reviewing relevant players at each position. Sorry, Brad Ausmus - you won't be covered here.  ADP comparables are players who are being drafted near the player being reviewed.

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1. Albert Pujols - STL - $39.10 - 8.26
ADP Comparables: Jimmy Rollins ($30.33), Miguel Cabrera ($36.23), Chase Utley ($30.82), Ryan Howard ($33.39), Johan Santana ($42.30), Prince Fielder ($28.04)

2. Ryan Howard - PHI - $33.39 - 11.41
ADP Comparables: Miguel Cabrera ($36.23), Chase Utley ($30.82), Albert Pujols ($39.10), Johan Santana ($42.30), Prince Fielder ($28.04), Carl Crawford ($25.97)

3. Prince Fielder - MIL - $28.04 - 12.45
ADP Comparables:  Albert Pujols ($39.10), Ryan Howard ($33.39), Johan Santana ($42.30), Carl Crawford ($25.97), Alfonso Soriano ($26.05), Ryan Braun ($33.29)

4. Mark Teixeira - ATL - $25.44 - 23.20
ADP Comparables: Ichiro Suzuki ($18.19), B.J. Upton ($17.15), Carlos Lee ($26.04), Lance Berkman ($23.24), Curtis Granderson ($16.81), Victor Martinez ($29.06)

5. Lance Berkman - HOU - $21.87 - 26.79
ADP Comparables: B.J. Upton ($17.15), Carlos Lee ($26.04), Mark Teixeira ($25.44), Curtis Granderson ($16.81), Victor Martinez ($29.06), Russell Martin ($26.80)

6. Justin Morneau - MIN - $17.07 - 36.98
ADP Comparables: Aramis Ramirez ($20.03), Brian Roberts ($18.55), Manny Ramirez ($14.67), Brandon Webb ($25.76), Derek Jeter ($19.20), Erik Bedard ($18.50)

7. Derrek Lee - CHC - $15.22 - 41.30
ADP Comparables: Brandon Webb ($25.76), Derek Jeter ($19.20), Erik Bedard ($18.50), Josh Beckett ($20.16), Adam Dunn ($17.97), Bobby Abreu ($18.89)

8. Adrian Gonzalez - SDG - $14.47 - 80.46
ADP Comparables: Vernon Wells ($10.88), Brad Hawpe ($8.28), John Smoltz ($23.60), Michael Young ($16.36), Felix Hernandez ($11.22), Jose Valverde ($14.80)

9. Todd Helton - COL - $13.11 - 123.42
ADP Comparables: Howie Kendrick ($5.95), Huston Street ($18.44), Matt Kemp ($16.68), Kenji Johjima ($13.83), Manuel Corpas ($8.94), Johnny Damon ($8.36)

10. Carlos Guillen - DET - $12.56 - 53.14
ADP Comparables: J.J. Putz ($20.64), Eric Byrnes ($11.86), John Lackey ($14.93), Joe Nathan ($20.35), Chone Figgins ($10.80), Brian McCann ($22.48)

11. Paul Konerko - CWS -$11.74 - 87.51
ADP Comparables: Felix Hernandez ($11.22), Jose Valverde ($14.80), Chris Young [SP] ($17.01), Jason Bay ($11.73), Nick Swisher ($9.84), Ryan Zimmerman ($16.42)

12. Carlos Pena - TBR - $11.19 - 60.36
ADP Comparables: Brian McCann ($22.48), Cole Hamels ($23.40), Dan Haren ($17.58), Joe Mauer ($25.53), Chris Young ($17.01), Corey Hart ($16.31)

13. Victor Martinez - CLE - $11.02 - 29.46
ADP Comparables: Mark Teixeira ($25.44), Lance Berkman ($23.24), Curtis Granderson ($16.84), Russell Martin ($26.80), Alex Rios ($16.09), Magglio Ordonez ($17.62)

14. Joey Votto - CIN - $10.23 - 272.99
ADP Comparables: Ryan Theriot (-$2.25), Jon Lester (-$15.48), Hideki Okajima ($2.20), Heath Bell ($8.66), Tom Glavine ($14.62), Nate McLouth ($6.57)

15. Nick Swisher - CWS - $8.47 - 88.57
ADP Comparables: Chris Young ($17.01), Paul Konerko ($11.74), Jason Bay ($11.73), Ryan Zimmerman ($16.42), Hideki Matsui ($12.61), Francisco Cordero ($13.11)

16. Carlos Delgado - NYM - $6.22 - 135.37
ADP Comparables: Ted Lilly ($6.22), James Loney ($4.91), John Maine ($4.91), Yovani Gallardo ($10.30), A.J. Burnett ($13.34), Brad Lidge ($9.06)

17. James Loney - LAD - $4.91 - 132.95
ADP Comparables: J.J. Hardy ($3.59), Chad Cordero ($9.17), Ted Lilly ($4.77), John Maine ($4.91), Carlos Delgado ($6.22), Yovani Gallardo ($10.30)

18. Kevin Youkilis - BOS - $4.60 - 177.93
ADP Comparables: Ivan Rodriguez ($6.96), Kevin Gregg ($4.15), Josh Fields ($6.20), Jhonny Peralta ($6.04), Joe Borowski ($3.86), Derek Lowe ($6.15)

19. Adam LaRoche - PIT - $4.40 - 214.43
ADP Comparables: Bronson Arroyo ($6.41), Garret Anderson (-$1.37), Rich Harden ($7.40), Troy Percival ($1.52), Bengie Molina ($9.76), Tom Gorzelanny (-$0.25)

20. Alex Gordon - KCR - $2.80 - 145.41
ADP Comparables: Jeff Kent ($5.56), Aaron Rowand ($6.41), Pat Burrell ($7.80), Jason Isringhausen ($5.97), Raul Ibanez ($7.54), Chien-Ming Wang (-$0.10)

21. Ryan Garko - CLE - $2.67 - 174.35
ADP Comparables: Dustin McGowan ($14.20), Philip Hughes ($2.49), Adam Wainwright ($3.05), Josh Hamilton ($6.24), Kelly Johnson ($6.89), Ivan Rodriguez ($6.96)

22. Conor Jackson - ARI - $1.99 - 303.42
ADP Comparables: Rafael Betancourt ($11.04), Luis Castillo ($1.00), Casey Kotchman (-$7.11), Greg Maddux ($7.91), Pat Neshek ($5.31), Ryan Doumit ($4.74)

23. Ty Wigginton - HOU - $1.00 - 233.87
ADP Comparables: Andy Pettitte (-$0.41), Hank Blalock ($3.23), Jose Guillen ($3.98), Jonathan Broxton ($12.12), Jason Varitek ($7.19), Randy Johnson ($7.13)

February 25, 2008

Draft Theory: The All-Undrafted Team

The following roster is assembled only with players expected to remain undrafted in a 12-team league.  In a future post, I'll discuss how to adjust draft rankings with these players in mind.  These players will essentially become the new replacement level players by which the rest of their peers will be valued.

Also, this post is the first in a series of draft theories.  My goal is to develop a theory that will yield the most value, as measured by Total Team Points

I've decided on a new way of evaluating these theories.  As an example, if league average is 20 HR per player, and my team averages 20 HR per player, I'll receive a 1.0 for HRs [20/20=1].  If my team averages 30 HRs, I'll receive a 1.5 [30/20=1.5].  If my team averages 10 HRs, I'll receive a 0.5 [10/20=1.5].  Therefore, a perfectly average team with have a total team score of 10.0 [1.0 x 10 Categories = 10.0].  Our goal should be to far surpass league average (10.0), as being average won't win championships. I know that this method of evaluation is not perfect, but a perfect method of evaluation (placing the projections of my team against the projections of 11 different teams) would take far too much time.  This method should still provide a decent way of evaluating which is the best drafting method..

C-Carlos Ruiz [$8.05]
C-Ronny Paulino [$6.04]
1B-Conor Jackson [$1.99]
2B-Freddy Sanchez [$6.25]
3B-Mark Reynolds [$5.89]
SS-Yuniesky Betancourt [-$1.85]
OF-Felix Pie [$3.75]
OF-Austin Kearns [$2.02]
OF-David DeJesus [$1.73]
OF-Lastings Milledge [$1.27]
OF-Mark Teahen [$1.09]
MI-Mark Ellis [$2.10]
CI-Mike Jacobs [-$1.43]
UT-Billy Butler [$7.48]
Total Hitting Value: $44.38

Team Average Batter: 14.21 HR, 68.86 R, 66.07 RBI, 6.14 SB, .279 AVG
League Average Batter: 19.89 HR, 80.10 R, 77.14 RBI, 10.15 SB, .281 AVG
Points: 0.71 HR, 0.86 R, 0.86 RBI, 0.60 SB, 0.99 AVG=4.03 Offensive Points [-3.00 than Max, -0.97 than Average]

P-Greg Maddux [$7.91]
P-Hiroki Kuroda [$3.61]
P-Kevin Slowey [$3.56]
P-Shawn Hill [$0.87]
P-Chuck James [$0.34]
P-Rafael Betancourt [$11.04]
P-Bob Howry [$7.13]
P-Cla Meredith [$6.21]
P-Aaron Heilman [$5.46]
Total Pitching Value: $46.13

Team Average Pitcher: 7.67 W, 1.78 SV, 84.67 SO [6.30 K/9], 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.84 K/BB]
League Average Pitcher: 8.45 W, 8.91 SV, 112.07 SO [7.88 K/9], 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP [2.80 K/BB]
Points: 0.91 W, 0.20 SV, 0.76 SO, 0.95 ERA, 1.00 WHIP=3.81 Pitching Points [-3.00 than Max, -1.19 than Average]

Total Team Points: 7.84 Points [-6.00 than Max, -2.16 than Average]
Team Score
[% of Maximum Above Replacement Level]: 0 [Replacement Level]

Thoughts: I came pretty close with the rate stats, even tying league average WHIP.  I'll have to make some changes for future draft theories based upon the fact that rate stats are going to be easier to replace than other stats like SBs and SVs.  All in all, I actually think this team wouldn't be last place.  There's always that Cincinnati Reds homer in your league who thinks Ryan Freel is due for a 30/30 season.

February 24, 2008

Around The Horn: Catchers

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Around The Horn is a feature that will focus on reviewing relevant players at each position. Sorry, Brad Ausmus - you won't be covered here.  ADP comparables are players who are being drafted near the player being reviewed.

[Rank, Name, Team, $ Value, ADP]

1.    Victor Martinez – CLE - $29.06 – 29.54
ADP Comparables: Mark Teixeira ($25.44), Lance Berkman ($23.24), Curtis Granderson ($16.84), Russell Martin ($26.80), Alex Rios ($16.09), Magglio Ordonez ($17.62)

2.    Russell Martin – LAD - $26.80 – 30.44
ADP Comparables: Lance Berkman ($23.24), Curtis Granderson ($16.84), Victor Martinez ($29.06), Alex Rios ($16.09), Magglio Ordonez ($17.62), Aramis Ramirez ($20.03)

3.    Joe Mauer – MIN - $25.53 – 59.31
ADP Comparables: Chone Figgins ($10.80), Brian McCann ($22.48), Cole Hamels ($23.40), Dan Haren ($17.58), Carlos Pena ($11.19), Chris B. Young ($14.71)

4.    Brian McCann – ATL - $22.48 – 55.52
ADP Comparables: Carlos Guillen ($15.61), Joe Nathan ($20.35), Chone Figgins ($10.80), Cole Hamels ($23.40), Dan Haren ($17.58), Joe Mauer ($25.53)

5.    Jorge Posada – NYY – $22.41 – 93.61
ADP Comparables: Billy Wagner ($18.07), Gary Sheffield ($8.03), Bobby Jenks ($12.35), Roy Halladay ($16.15), Mariano Rivera ($20.32), Shane Victorino ($4.04)

6.    Geovany Soto – CHC - $14.88 – 159.92
ADP Comparables: Ian Snell ($2.98), Clay Buchholz ($6.41), Tim Hudson ($6.56), Joakim Soria ($9.65), Pedro Martinez ($18.44), Willy Taveras ($2.77)

7.    Kenji Johjima – SEA - $13.83 – 124.42
ADP Comparables: Huston Street ($18.44), Matt Kemp ($16.68), Todd Helton ($13.11), Manuel Corpas ($8.94), Johnny Damon ($8.36), Brad Penny ($1.91)

8.    J.R. Towles – HOU - $12.46 – 203.50
ADP Comparables: Todd Jones ($1.00), Edwin Encarnacion ($6.15), Joe Blanton ($2.41), Khalil Greene ($2.82), Dontrelle Willis (-$8.27), Michael Bourn (-$11.95)

9.    Bengie Molina – SFG – $9.76 – 218.38
ADP Comparables: Rich Harden ($7.40), Adam LaRoche ($4.40), Troy Percival ($1.52), Tom Gorzelanny (-$0.25), A.J. Pierzynski ($8.31), Gary Matthews Jr. ($1.44)

10.    A.J. Pierzynski – CWS - $8.31 – 225.50
ADP Comparables: Troy Percival ($1.52), Bengie Molina ($9.76), Tom Gorzelanny (-$0.25), Gary Matthews Jr. ($1.44), Frank Thomas ($3.96), Brian Wilson ($1.57)

11.    Carlos Ruiz – PHI - $8.05 – 294.34
ADP Comparables: Casey Blake (-$4.28), Mark Ellis ($2.10), Hiroki Kuroda ($3.61), Jay Bruce ($8.20), Bill Hall ($0.41), Rafael Betancourt ($11.04)

12.    Ramon Hernandez – BAL - $7.45 – 246.59
ADP Comparables: George Sherrill ($2.23), Felipe Lopez ($2.11), Mike Cameron ($3.41), Matt Garza (-$6.30), Evan Longoria ($4.42), Julio Lugo ($1.00)

13.    Jason Varitek – BOS - $7.19 – 232.13
ADP Comparables: Yunel Escobar ($0.35), Andy Pettitte (-$0.41), Jose Guillen ($3.98), Randy Johnson ($7.13), Hank Blalock ($3.23), Ty Wigginton ($4.46)

14.    Ivan Rodriguez – DET - $6.96 – 175.37
ADP Comparables: Dustin McGowan ($14.20), Philip Hughes ($2.49), Adam Wainwright ($3.05), Ryan Garko ($2.67), Kevin Gregg ($4.15), Josh Hamilton ($6.24)

15.    Ronny Paulino – PIT - $6.04 – 279.25
ADP Comparables: Heath Bell ($8.66), Nate McLouth (-$6.57), Joey Votto ($10.23), Tony Pena ($2.31), Freddy Sanchez ($6.25), Johnny Estrada ($0.71)

16.    Jarrod Saltalamacchia – TEX - $5.99  - 146.80
ADP Comparables: Rafael Soriano ($12.01), Chien-Ming Wang (-$0.10), Raul Ibanez ($7.54), Alex Gordon ($2.80), Ken Griffey Jr. ($3.93), Chad Billingsley ($2.65)

17.    Ryan Doumit – PIT - $4.74 – 305.40
ADP Comparables: Greg Maddux ($7.91), Conor Jackson ($1.99), Pat Neshek ($5.31), Akinori Iwamura (-$1.82), Brian Fuentes ($3.70), Billy Butler ($7.48)

18.    Paul Lo Duca – WAS - $4.20 – 262.51
ADP Comparables: Gil Meche (-$6.13), Scott Rolen (-$3.65), Corey Patterson ($1.00), J.D. Drew (-$1.04), Ubaldo Jimenez (-$23.28), Jon Lester (-$15.48)

19.    Mike Napoli – LAA - $3.57 – 269.26
ADP Comparables: J.D. Drew (-$1.04), Ubaldo Jimenez (-$23.28), Jon Lester (-$15.48), Hideki Okajima ($2.20), Rick Ankiel ($2.21), Ryan Theriot (-$2.25)

20.    Miguel Montero – ARI - $3.44 - UNDRAFTED
ADP Comparables: None.

21.    Josh Bard – SDG - $2.36 – 297.60
ADP Comparables: Rafael Betancourt ($11.04), Chris Duncan (-$1.17), Jerry Owens (-$4.32), David Weathers (-$0.58), John Buck ($1.99), Luis Castillo ($1.00)

22.    Kurt Suzuki – OAK -$2.30 – 319.77
ADP Comparables: Wily Mo Pena (-$9.76), Jason Bartlett (-$2.86), Lastings Milledge ($1.27), Milton Bradley (-$6.66), Jason Kubel (-$1.92), Matt Diaz (-$1.16)

23.    John Buck – KCR - $1.99 – 298.67
ADP Comparables: Jerry Owens (-$4.32), Josh Bard ($2.36), David Weathers (-$0.58), Luis Castillo ($1.00), Casey Kotchman (-$7.11), Greg Maddux ($7.91)

24.    Chris Iannetta – COL - $1.00 - UNDRAFTED
ADP Comparables: None.