Nine Bo Jacksons

Position Review: Outfielders

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

OF MVP: Nate McLouth [$37.28] - .312 AVG, 12 HR, 36 R, 36 RBI, 4 SB
Average OF with Positive Value: [$13.10] - .283 AVG, 5 HR, 23 R, 22 RBI, 4 SB
Replacement Level Player: Ryan Spilborghs [$1.00] - .306 AVG, 1 HR, 12 R, 17 RBI, 3 SB

Best HR Source: Nate McLouth [12]
Best R Source: Chris Young [37]
Best RBI Source: Josh Hamilton [49]
Best SB Source: Ichiro Suzuki & Michael Bourn [18]
Best AVG Source: Josh Hamilton [56 H in 175 AB]

Thoughts:

• Nick Markakis [$18.15]: Nick has parked 8 HR and swiped 6 bases thus far.  After hitting .300 last year, the only big knock on him this season is his .267 AVG.  The BABIP is at .305, so that's not the culprit.  His strikeout rate is way up from 17.58% last year to 24.67% this year.  Markakis should be able to adjust and get that AVG at a more respectable level.  If he does that, his value will shoot up.  Buy.
• Hunter Pence [$12.99]: Pence started off slow, but has been raking as of late.  He's 11 for his last 27, with 6 R, 4 RBI, and 3 SB.  Don't get too giddy though - the BABIP at .339 is unsustainable.  Pence has batted leadoff in place of Michael Bourn these past two games, and if that continues, look for him to score a lot more runs.  Pence's value should fall right in this range at the end of the season, but I like his upside.  Buy.
• Nick Swisher [-$2.71]: Not the greatest start for Swisher thus far.  Although we all knew he wasn't much of a player who could hit for AVG, he's only hitting .208 right now.  The .250 BABIP is a bit low, so expect his AVG to get back up around his career .247 mark.  His SLG is way down, from .455 last year to .329 this year.  All in all, there's not too much to like here.  Sell.
• Shane Victorino [-$3.61]: Hampered by injuries early on, the Flyin' Hawaiian just hasn't looked great.  The .237 AVG is coupled with a low .265 BABIP, so expect the AVG to rise to a .280 level. Overall, he's not stealing bases at the rate he did last year, which would certainly knock his value.  On the good side, he has swiped 2 in the past week, so maybe that trend is reversing.  All in all, I'd expect his value to continue to rise.   Buy.
   

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• A-Rod is slated to return to the Yanks on Tuesday.
• The Astros placed Geoff Geary on the DL with a strained right groin, calling up P Fernando Nieve [MiLB Value -$19.42] to take his spot.
• Don't take it out on the TV, Izzy.  Jason Isringhausen hit the DL after hitting the TV.  They called up Chris Perez [MiLB Value $13.86] from AAA to take his spot.  The 22 year old Perez makes for an interesting add; he should at least be a good source of Ks [11.69 K/9 in 100.1 MiLB IP].  He should also be in line for a few save opportunities, as Ryan Franklin hasn't exactly been shut down.

Transactions:

• The Brewers sent RP Mitch Stetter to AAA Nashville, calling up Zach Jackson [MiLB value -$39.38].  Avoid Jackson like the plague in all formats.
• The Indians recalled Jeremy Sowers [MiLB Value $8.46] from AAA Buffalo, DFA'ing Jason Tyner to make room.  Sowers started Friday's game against Cincy, going 5 innings while giving up 3 ER and striking out 2.  The Tribe then sent Sowers back to AAA, calling up Mike Aubrey [MiLB Value -$13.76].  Aubrey has little experience above AA, but has a career MiLB line of .301/.365/.496.

Misc.:

• With Rafael Betancourt losing sole control of the closing gig in Cleveland, they will turn to three additional pitchers to close out games before Joe Borowski comes back from the DL.  Betancourt, Masa Kobayashi, Jensen Lewis, and Rafael Perez are all options for save speculators.
• I really wish Jason Giambi's preference for underwear was not in the news.  I think I'm more grossed out that Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon have worn Giambi's thong.

Position Review: Shortstop

Please note: The valuation data for this post does not include data from the past two days' [5/15 & 5/16] games.

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

SS MVP: Hanley Ramirez [$40.33] - .327 AVG, 9 HR, 34 R, 23 RBI, 13 SB
Average SS With Positive Value: .298 AVG, 3 HR, 23 R, 17 RBI, 4 SB
Replacement Level Player: Jimmy Rollins [$1.00] - .286 AVG, 3 HR, 10 R, 11 RBI, 3 SB

Best HR Source: Hanley Ramirez [9]
Best R Source: Hanley Ramirez & Rafael Furcal [34]
Best RBI Source: Miguel Tejada [31]
Best SB Source: Hanley Ramirez [13]
Best AVG Source: Rafael Furcal [49 H in 134 AB - .366 AVG]

Thoughts:

• Ryan Theriot [$16.77]: The Riot is currently sporting a .329 AVG, thanks in large part to a lofty .362 BABIP.  Expect regression there.  We all know he can steal; in fact, most people drafted him for that reason.  He's not riding a fluky RBI or HR total, as he only has 10 RBI and 1 HR thus far.  The Cubs offense is legit, so the R totals seem to be legit as well.  All in, expect a little regression in AVG, but it looks like owners of The Riot will turn a profit this year.  Buy.
• Jose Reyes [$13.41]: What's up with Reyes?  He's on pace to "only" steal 50 bases, when most people drafted him expecting near 70.  The Mets' offense hasn't exactly been elite, suppressing his runs scored totals.  His .258 AVG isn't due in part to a fluky BABIP; that's at .286.  All in all, I'm not 100% sure what's up with Reyes, but temper your expectations.  I don't think we're getting a .300 AVG with 70 SB and 120 R, but Reyes will still be a useful player; I'd expect around a .280 AVG, 55 SB and 100 R.  His value may increase from here, but I'd try to capitalize on the "name" value and make a deal.  Sell.
• Stephen Drew [$11.53]: My pre-season valuations [based on BP's projections] had Drew at only $1.38.  He's currently hitting .289 on a high but not ridiculous .305 BABIP.  Drew isn't riding obscene R & RBI totals [26 & 18, respectively], so those aren't exactly red flags.  He wasn't ever going to steal 20 bases, so the 1 SB thus far isn't a knock on him at all.  All in all, he may regress a tad, but this is looking like a good season.  Buy.
• Khalil Greene [-$5.15]: Khalil wasn't ever going to be confused for a guy competing for a batting title, but even the current .215 AVG is a disappointment.  The .248 BABIP is a sign he's due to get up to his normal .250'ish AVG.  The power, on the other hand, is not looking like it's there.  The .323 SLG is a big red flag, and it's looking more and more like last years .468 SLG was an anomaly.  Don't expect 25 HRs here.  Sell.
• J.J. Hardy [-$7.15]: Hardy hasn't ever seemed to be on track.  He started the season ill, and hasn't ever gotten it together.  With only 1 HR and 10 RBI, he's not looking like the decent power source at SS most people expected.  There's just not too much to like here.  Sell.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• David Riske will hit the DL with a hyperextended right elbow.  The Brew Crew called up Mike DiFelice from AAA.  DiFfelice has struck out 28 in 23 IP this year at AAA.
• The Nats placed 1B Nick Johnson on the DL with a torn tendon sheath in his right wrist.  That sounds painful.  He'll miss 4-6 weeks.  Dmitri "Da Meathook" Young will be activated before Friday's game to take over Johnson's roster spot and lineup spot.
• The Giants placed RP Merkin Valdez on the DL with a strained elbow.  The Giants seemed confident it wasn't anything too serious.  They called up Alex Hinshaw [MiLB Value $22.20] from AAA.  Hinshaw should be a decent NL Only add, as the 25 year old has a career 10.99 K/9, and has seemed to found his control since '07.
• The Rox placed RP Ryan Speier on the DL with a right shoulder contusion.  The move was made retroactive to May 12.  They called up P Josh Newman [MiLB Value $2.01] to take his spot.

Misc.:

• The Gary Sheffield in the Outfield experiment is over.  Sheff will be limited to DH duty.
• Ken Griffey Jr.'s latest prank was too good.

Position Review: 3rd Base

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

3B MVP: Chipper Jones [$37.52] - .418 AVG, 11 HR, 29 R, 32 RBI, 0 SB
Average 3B With Positive Value: [$10.99] - .274 AVG, 6 HR, 21 R, 22 RBI, 2 SB
Replacement Level Player: Casey Blake [$1.00] - .219 AVG, 2 HR, 18 R, 25 RBI, 1 SB

Best HR Source: Chipper Jones [11]
Best R Source: Chipper Jones & Aramis Ramirez [29]
Best RBI Source: Chipper Jones & David Wright [32]
Best SB Source: Chone Figgins [11]
Best AVG Source: Chipper Jones [61 H in 146 AB]

Thoughts:

• David Wright [$20.19]: Why isn't Wright hitting .300?  He's having a very solid season, but the .276 AVG is definitely a disappointment to his owners.  His .300 BABIP is a sign it's not all bad luck.  A week ago, Howard Johnson (NYM hitting coach) said "He's just over-swinging - coming off the ball, a lot of upper body".  Wright is still a solid player, and I'm pretty certain he'll come around and hit .300+ again...just give him time.  Buy.
• Mark Reynolds [$15.67]: This guy strikes out a lot.  39% of his ABs have resulted in strike outs.  BP had him at a .271 AVG, but if he keeps striking out like that, there's no way he'll even reach that.  His power is very real, and the 4 SB are a nice sign that he's capable of a 30 HR/10 SB season.  He makes sense if you have a team loaded with high AVG hitters, but I always try to avoid players with gaping holes in their game like Reynolds. Sell.
• Ryan Zimmerman [$5.31]: A popular breakout pick this season, Zimm is only hitting .240 thus far.  Part of that is due to a .256 BABIP, so expect his AVG to rise.  The Nats are the 3rd worst in runs scored, and the 2nd worst in OBP, so don't expect a gigantic rush in the team dependent stats.  I'd expect Zimm's value to rise from here, but I'd certainly feel better if his teammates picked up the pace.  Buy.
• Evan Longoria [-$2.64]: Longoria has yet to really break out.  I certainly didn't expect him to hit .300 right away, but the .216 didn't seem right either.  Longoria has a .250 BABIP, partially but not wholly explaining the low AVG.  I'd expect him to breakout at some point; players of his pedigree normally don't just come to the bigs and flounder.  Buy.
• Ty Wigginton [-$14.81]: Largely a result of the time missed from the thumb injury, Wiggy isn't producing what a lot of fantasy owners hoped he would.  The 3 SB are a good sign, and he should continue to steal a decent amount of bases for a pudgy 3B.  The .256 BABIP gives cause for hope, and the Astros' offense is continuing to look stronger.  All signs point upward for Wiggy.  Buy.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• The Red Sox placed Clay Buchholz on the DL with a broken nail.  They called up OF Jonathan Van Every [MiLB Value $14.88] from AAA Pawtucket to take his spot.  Van Every was in the Cleveland system until last year, and profiles as a low-impact Quad-A type player.
• The Pirates placed Ryan Doumit on the DL after breaking his thumb on a passed ball, and will be out at least a month.  It's a shame - Doumit was looking like a top catcher thus far.  Ronny Paulino will get the majority of the PT behind the plate.
• The Reds officially placed Jeff Keppinger on the DL with a broken kneecap, and called up IF Paul Janish [MiLB Value $12.33] from AAA.  Dusty Baker plans to shockingly [insert sarcasm here] go with the veteran Jerry Hairston Jr. at SS.
• Jim Hoey will be out for the season following shoulder surgery.

Transactions:

• The Rangers activated OF Marlon Byrd from the DL, sending down 3B Travis Metcalf to make room.
• The Cubs have signed OF Jim Edmonds.  Felix Pie will be sent down to AAA to make room.

Position Review: 2nd Base

2B MVP: Chase Utley [$37.67] - .325 AVG, 13 HR, 32 R, 28 RBI, 3 SB
Average Production of a 2B with Positive Value: .276 AVG, 4 HR, 21 R, 18 RBI, 4 SB
Replacement Level Player: Jeff Kent [$1.00] - .250 AVG, 3 HR, 13 R, 19 RBI, 0 SB

Best HR Source: Chase Utley [13]
Best R Source: Chase Utley [32]
Best RBI Source: Dan Uggla [29]
Best SB Source: Ian Kinsler & Brian Roberts [11]
Best AVG Source: Howie Kendrick [18 H in 36 AB]

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Thoughts:

• Ian Kinsler - TEX [$25.57]: As a person who drafted Kinsler, I was expecting around a 20/20 season with a low batting average.  Kinsler has already stolen 11 bases, 4 of them in the past week.  He's hitting .310 currently, but his 85.16% contact rate, 6.78% walk rate, and .341 BABIP suggest he won't continue to do so.  Regardless, even if he regresses back to the .270 AVG area, his end of season line should look solid, given his extra prowess on the basepaths.  Buy.
• Kelly Johnson - ATL [$8.47]: Johnson has been solid, but not spectacular.  His .268 AVG isn't necessarily a fluke, as his .296 BABIP is slightly above league average [.293].  I'd expect him to get his AVG back to the .275 area, and continue to be a solid but not spectacular contributor in all 5 categories.  Buy.
• Kazuo Matsui - HOU [$5.16]: Matsui's been a pleasant surprise since returning from his injury.  The good news here is that most of it looks sustainable.  His value hasn't been dependent upon the long ball [1 HR thus far], nor on RBI [11], nor on AVG [.264].  He's strictly a two category guy, stealing 6 bases and scoring 20 runs thus far.  Given the Astros' baserunning philosophy and their potent offense [#5 in runs scored], this is completely sustainable for Matsui.  Buy.
• Jeff Kent - LAD [$1.00]: Kent has hit .292 and .302 in the past two years, but is only hitting .250 this year.  His BABIP is down at .265, which is an encouraging sign that part of the reason he's hitting so low is due to bad luck.  Kent's SLG is way down to .397, not an encouraging sign for a 40 year old player.  In the end, I think Kent rebounds in AVG, but doesn't pop the 20 HR we were all hoping for.  I'd try to avoid Kent if I could, though he won't kill you.  Sell.
• Freddy Sanchez - PIT [-$0.12]: Sanchez was supposed to pretty much be a one-category contributor in AVG.  He's been a little unfortunate in BABIP [.282], but not so much that it explains his .253 AVG.  Sanchez isn't whiffing any more than normal, within a percent or so of what he did last year.  I'm not 100% sure why Sanchez isn't hitting, but it's not a good sign.  Sell.
  

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• Cardinals reliever Tyler Johnson will undergo arthroscopic surgery today.
• Jeff Keppinger broke his kneecap after fouling a pitch off of it in the second inning; he played the game until the fourth.  Kepp will undergo an MRI today; we should have a better estimate of the time he'll miss when they get the results of that.

Transactions:

• The Pirates called up P Marino Salas [MiLB Value $15.55], replacing John Van Benschoten.  Salas and his 7.98 career K/9 could be a welcome addition to an NL-only bullpen.

Misc.:

• Eric Gagne is back as the closer in Milwaukee.  He picked up the save against the Dodgers last night.
• While watching Mike & Mike this morning, I heard Steve Phillips say that the Mitchell Report was having an effect on the power numbers at the big leagues, as he thinks people have been "scared straight" from using steroids.  Regardless of the reason, power is certainly declining this year.  Check out the decline in slugging percentage in the NL in 06/07/08: .427/.423/.409.  In the AL: .437/.423/.394.  So, if you're wondering if power numbers are down, they certainly are.

Position Review: 1st Base

Please note: These valuations do not include data from last night's [5/12] games.

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Average 1B with Positive Value: 130 AB, .281 AVG, 7 HR,  21 R, 24 RBI, 1 SB

Best HR Source: Lance Berkman [12]
Best R Source: Lance Berkman [40]
Best RBI Source: Lance Berkman [36]
Best SB Source: Lance Berkman [6]
Best AVG Source: Lance Berkman [52 H in 136 AB]

Thoughts:

• Lance Berkman - HOU [$53.52]: I know I said I wouldn't rave about players who we all know are good, but Berkman has been historically good.  Berkman is 25 for his last 39, hitting .641/.689/1.205 in the month of May.  That's a 1.894 OPS.  It's only ten games, but I'm still impressed.  Enjoy the ride; I sure am.  Buy.
• Kevin Youkilis - BOS [$27.77]: This is a very impressive stretch for Youk.  He's on pace for a .322 AVG, 32 HR, 109 R, 122 RBI, and 8 SB.  He's currently slugging .596; the only time he's ever slugged over .453 is in 152 AB at AAA Pawtucket in 2005.  Unless he was due for a power surge at age 29, I think Youk is in way over his head at this value.  Sell.
• Miguel Cabrera - DET [$7.17]: What's up with Miggy?  His walk rate is a nice 11.25%, but his contact rate is down to 80.58%, resulting in a .252 AVG.  I really don't know how to explain why he's only a $7 player, but Jim Leyland thinks "He probably feels like the weight of the club is on his shoulders. We just want him to do what he can do, he doesn't need to do any more than that."  There isn't any metric I have to justify this, but Cabrera will turn it around.  Buy.
• Mark Teixeira - ATL [$6.92]: Teixeira is sporting a 86.96% contact rate, with a 12.03% walk rate, yet has a .261 AVG.  He should inch towards .300 in the near future.  The power has been conspicuously absent this season, with only a .435 SLG thus far.  He seems to have a bad home road split, hitting .233/.333/.370 at home but hitting .292/.378/.508 on the road.  Teix slugged .596 at Turner Field last year, so this just seems to be a bad funk for him.  May be a good buy low opportunity.  Buy.
• Prince Fielder - MIL [$4.19]: [Insert assumption about vegetarianism sapping Fielder's power here].  He's always been a big strikeout guy, whiffing in 21.44% of his major league ABs.  Fielder is actually striking out less this year, only in 17.29% of his ABs.  He's not a .288 hitter like he was last year, but he certainly isn't a .241 hitter like he is this year.  What gives?  Milwaukee isn't scoring runs, ranking #20 in the bigs at doing so.  They're also #24 at getting on base.  That whole team is in a funk, but I'd imagine Fielder will still find 40+ HR power in his bat.  Buy.
• Ryan Howard - PHI [-$1.22]: Another struggling slugging first baseman.  Howard always strikes out [34.17% career rate], but he's at 38.57% this season.  His slugging is way down to .357 this season, not a good sign at all.  Howard is a second half player, with .249/.339/.522 Pre-ASB line compared to a .310/.429/.649 Post-ASB.  He's not a .300 hitter, and is more likely to hit .260-.270, but he just seems to be experiencing his usual beginning of the season slump.  I don't have any reason to think he won't pop 40+ HR again.  Buy.

Jay Bruce To Be Called Up "Soon"

"Hal McCoy, of the Dayton Daily News, reports Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker said OF Jay Bruce will be recalled soon."

I skimmed the Dayton Daily News site, but couldn't find the article.  Regardless, it seems like its time to add the #1 prospect in baseball.  Brandon Funston reported that he was only 6% owned, so he's likely to be out there in some leagues, though he was stashed in all of mine.

What is there not to like about Bruce?  Baseball America states that he strikes out a lot, but that they're a fair trade off for what he does when he actually hits the ball with the bat.  He can play CF, though he's more fit for RF.  Neither of these "flaws" should affect too many fantasy leagues.  Looking at his past performance, the only "bad" season he had was way back in 2005 in Rookie Ball, when an 18 year old Bruce hit .266/.341/.484 in 192 AB.  Other than that, I really can't find any red flags in his past performance.

What should we expect from him this season?  If he gets 450 PA, BP's weighted mean projections would put him at a .270 AVG, 21 HR, 63 R, 68 RBI, and 8 SB.  Their 90th percentile projection would put him at a .298 AVG, 27 HR, 78 R, 80 RBI, and 8 SB.  Bruce probably won't hit .300 right away, but he should be a solid contributor everywhere else.  He was even 7-for-7 in steal attempts at AAA, an encouraging sign that he could produce double digit steals this season.

Bruce should be a game-changer.  I wouldn't go trading Lance Berkman for him, but do what you have to get a hold of him.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• This one hurts.  Rafael Furcal will hit the DL with a lower back strain, after missing five games due to the same injury.  He was off to an amazing start, giving many fantasy owners great hope for the season.  Chin-Lung Hu is an internal option to replace him, though Luis Maza [MiLB Value $17.47] was mentioned as someone to take Furcal's active roster spot.
• John Smoltz is throwing again.  Recovering from rotator cuff and bicep tendon inflammation, he threw 45 pitches from 60 feet.  He'll throw from 90 feet on Wednesday, and is aiming for a return to the Braves later this month.
• Sean Casey was activated from the DL by the Red Sox, who DFA'd Julian "I Fought the Bullpen Phone and the Bullpen Phone Won" Tavarez to make room.
• Pedro Martinez is going to throw a simulated game against minor leaguers on Wednesday.  Martinez is returning from a strained left hamstring sustained in his season debut on April 1.

Transactions:

• The Pirates demoted John Van Benschoten, and will bring up "a pitcher" before tonight's game.

Misc.:

• That was quick.  Eric Gagne says he's ready to close again, only two days after he stated he didn't deserve to close out games.  Ned Yost didn't specifically commit to giving him the ball in the 9th, though.
• NBJ's got plugged on the Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show, an excellent internet radio program with Todd Farino, Patrick DiCaprio, and RC Rizza.  They raised a good question about my position reviews and MiLB Reviews, asking how the $ values are calculated.  All the $ values are calculated solely based on a players season-to-date production; there are no "projections" factored in on the values.  Although the methodology of calculating rotisserie values is complex enough to write a book about it, my valuations are loosely based on Art McGee's theories.  I encourage y'all to check out Patrick's site, The Fantasy Baseball Generals.  I also added a link to his site under "Fantasy Baseball Links" on this site. 

MiLB Report: AAA

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here. Please note that some players who may have already received callups to the bigs will still be included in these stat reports, as there is no way to filter them out.  This is why Max Scherzer still shows up here.

Best HR Source: Mike Hessman - DET [16]
Best R Source: Bradley Coon - LAA [35]
Best RBI Source: Brad Eldred - CWS [35]
Best SB Source: 3 Players [12]
Best AVG Source: Terry Tiffee - LAD [68 H in 155 AB]

Thoughts:

• Nelson Cruz, OF - TEX [$56.49]: He's finally starting to cool off, only hitting .229 in his last ten games.  Cruz is still having a ridiculous season, with 2 more HR and 2 more SB in his last ten.  There still doesn't seem to be much budge in the Rangers OF, so Cruz is still a wait and see.
• Jay Bruce, OF - CIN [$32.16]: Bruce continues to rake.  In a surprising and pleasing note for fantasy owners, he's stolen more bases [7] than he's hit home runs [6].  He'll be a legitimate five category contributor once he reaches the bigs.  If the Griffey/Mariners trade actually goes down, Bruce would figure to get the regular gig in Cincy.  Don't hold your breath, though.
• Andrew McCutchen, OF - PIT [$27.59]: McCutchen is still putting a great season together that will shoot him into the big leagues sooner rather than later.  Once the Pirates come down from their current success, I'd bet there will be a push to make room for the future of the franchise.
• Seth Smith, OF - COL [$24.92]: Smith has good power, not shown in his current .444 SLG.  He's a career .500 slugger, and could probably hit 15-20 HR in the big leagues right away.  The encouraging sign for fantasy owners is that Smith is running more; his 8 SB this season are only 1 away from his career high in the minors.  With Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday firmly entrenched, Smith's best case scenario for big league PT is in a part-time platoon in CF with Willy Taveras.  Even that doesn't seem likely, though.

Best W Source: Eddie Bonine - DET [7]
Best SV Source: Blaine Neal - DET [12]
Best SO Source: J.A. Happ - PHI [55]
Best ERA Source: Lance Broadway - CWS [48 IP of 1.13 ERA]
Best WHIP Source: Max Scherzer - ARI [23 IP of 0.65 WHIP]

Thoughts:

• Lance Broadway - CWS [$32.24]: Still pitching well with regards to ERA [1.13] and WHIP [0.90], Broadway's K rate has dipped all the way down to 4.88 K/9.  With the ChiSox rotation as it is, Broadway is not likely to have any immediate impact.
• David Purcey - TOR [$26.82]: The 16th overall pick in 2004, Purcey is finally delivering on what the Blue Jays thought they were drafting.  Sporting a 10.59 K/9 rate, it's not hard to imagine he'll force his way into the Toronto bullpen sooner or later.  He'll be a solid AL-only add once he makes the bigs.
• Ryan Feierabend - SEA [$23.61]: Last year's #5 prospect in the Mariners' system, Feierabend logged too many innings last year to qualify for this year's list.  Just 22 years old, he has plenty of upside.  He logged an 8.03 ERA last year, but looks like he's gotten things under control at AAA.  Feierabend won't be a K guy, but could be capable of good rate stats.
• Charlie Morton - ATL [$18.47]: His track record doesn't really show that he's likely to keep this up, but 41 IP of 1.76 ERA is still impressive.  His 7.12 career K/9 is respectable, but his 1.52 K/BB is why there's concern about his ability to keep it going.  If he does keep it up, he'd have to be considered for Atlanta's injury stricken bullpen.

Position Review: Catcher

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Best HR Source: Mike Napoli [8]
Best R Source: Joe Mauer [22]
Best RBI Source: Geovany Soto [24]
Best SB Source: Ivan Rodriguez & Russell Martin [3]
Best AVG Source: Victor Martinez [36 H in 104 AB]

In lieu of breaking down the top 10, I'm going to start to review players on a somewhat random basis.  I think we all know that Brian McCann and Russell Martin are good catchers. I want to focus more on examining whether certain players are legitimately good or due for a regression, or whether certain players are legitimately bad or due to break out of a slump.

Thoughts:

• Ryan Doumit: $19.64: Per Ron Shandler, a true .300 hitter is one with a 86% contact rate and an 11% walk rate.  Doumit currently sports exactly an 86.00% contact rate, combined with a 3.77% walk rate.  Doumit is currently hitting .340, well above any mark he's ever achieved.  BP's 90th percentile projection, a decent indication of a players ceiling, has him hitting .303.  Could Doumit hit .300?  Absolutely.  Will he likely do so?  Nope.  He is slugging way above his head at .560, though .490-.500 is certainly possible.  He won't be this good, but he'll certainly be good enough for the position.  Buy.
• Victor Martinez: $6.06: V-Mart was a consistent 3rd round pick due to the expectation of him being solid in HR, R, RBI, and AVG.  Thus far, he's delivered on the AVG at .346, but been below expectations everywhere else.  He did miss some time with an injury, but is still #14 in ABs amongst catchers.  What gives?  Cleveland is tied for 20th in OBP, therefore limiting RBI opportunities for V-Mart.  I don't think the Tribe's offense stays in this funk all season long.  It  also doesn't seem likely that he'll slug .500 again, but his .404 should certainly rise.  Buy.
• Dioner Navarro: $4.01: He can't possibly be as bad as he was last year, when he hit .227/.286/.356 in 388 AB.  Navarro's AVG is really carrying him, as he's currently hitting .333 in 66 AB.  He missed some time with the freak injury earlier this season, causing him to be lagging a little in the counting stats.  I like what I'm seeing here, as his age and team's upside certainly gives cause for believing he's capable of being a capable fantasy C.  Buy.
• J.R. Towles: -$3.69: Towles hasn't hit a HR since April 19, and has regressed in nearly every category in the past month.  More importantly, he hasn't even attempted to steal a base this season, which was something his owners were banking on.  I certainly though we'd see Towlie run with Cecil Cooper's aggressive baserunning management.  There's not too much to like here for a guy who was expected to be in over his head at this level, as he only had 83 AB of experience above AA before this season began.  If anything, he showed us early on that he has good power potential, but that's not enough to calm my fears.  Sell.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia: -$10.10: I'll get some first hand scouting on Salty when I head up to Arlington for the Astros/Rangers series this weekend.  He is currently splitting time with Gerald Laird and not doing much with the 29 ABs he's had.  It's an incredibly small sample size, and with his work at AAA [.291/.391/.491 in 55 AB], I wouldn't write him off entirely.  He was way overdrafted in the first place; I just think most people should have tempered their expectations to start with.  Although he won't be -$10 bad, with the PT in question, I'm a skeptic.  Sell.
• Kenji Johjima: -$10.39: Quite frankly, there's just not too much to like here.  Johjima has had 106 AB, but hasn't done anything with them.  It's not all his fault; the Mariners are 2nd worst in team OBP and the 6th worst in runs scored.  Regardless, there's little reason for optimism for either Johjima or the Mariners.  Sell.

Odds & Ends

After a weekend off to celebrate my college graduation, I'm back in the saddle today.  NBJ's should return to the normal posting schedule.  Let's start with a round-up of all the moves since Thursday:

Injuries:

• Vernon Wells broke his wrist, and should be out for 6-8 weeks.  The newly acquired Brad Wilkerson should see increased PT with the injury. 
• Chone Figgins hit the DL with a strained right hamstring, calling up Kendry Morales.  Maicer Izturis is nearing his return, and figures to pick up some PT with Figgins' absence.
• The Cubs brought Scott Eyre back from the DL, sending down Sean Marshall to make room.  Eyre was suffering from left elbow inflammation, and logged a 6.75 ERA in seven minor league appearances.
• The Reds placed Kent Mercker on the DL with lower back pain, calling up the oft-recalled P Bill Bray from AAA.
• The Nats placed catchers Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada on the DL, clearing space for the return of OF Elijah Dukes and C Jesus Flores.  Flores should handle catching duties with Wil Nieves, and Dukes should get 4th OF duty.
• Keith Foulke returned from the DL, taking the space of Dallas Braden.  Foulke will be part of an "interchangeable" bullpen, with manager Bob Geren stating that although Huston Street is the closer, Foulke, Santiago Casilla, Andrew Brown, Alan Embree, and Chad Gaudin can be used in any role.
• The Rays activated OF/DH Cliff Floyd from the DL, sending OF Nathan Haynes back to the minors.  In yesterday's game, Floyd was the DH and batted 6th, going 2 for 4.
• Wilson Betemit and Jonathan Albaladejo were placed on the DL, calling up Alberto Gonzalez and Chris Britton to take their place.
• Kevin Millwood was placed on the 15 day DL by the Rangers, suffering from a strained right groin.  They called up Doug Mathis to take Millwood's roster spot, though he'll pitch primarily out of the bullpen.

Transactions:

• The Rangers sent OF Kevin Mench [who was in AAA Oklahoma] to the Blue Jays for cash.  I've never heard of this "cash" guy, but maybe the Rangers will option him to AAA and clear room for Nelson Cruz at the big league level?
• Derrick Turnbow is back as a closer...at AAA. He accepted his assignment to Nashville, where he will close out games.
• The Padres cut ties with CF Jim Edmonds, eating $4.7M.  They called up Jody Gerut, who started in CF for the series against Colorado.  He also batted leadoff for Saturday and Sunday's games.
• The Padres sent Glendon Rusch to AAA, calling up Sean "Don't Call Me Penn" Henn.
• The Tribe called up OF Jason Tyner, sending down P Tom Mastny to clear room.
• The Orioles called up INF Alex Cintron, who will serve as a utility man.
• The Padres acquired P Brian Corey from the Red Sox, for a PTBNL or cash.  They moved Joe Thatcher to the minors to clear room for Corey.
• The Rockies called up the #2 pick from the 2006 draft, P Greg Reynolds.  He started Sunday against the Padres, going 5 and 2/3 while giving up 4 ER with 1 K. 
• The Nats sent P Mike O'Connor to AAA Columbus, calling up Chris Schroder to take his spot. 

Misc.:

• Jason Isringhausen won't be closing games out in St. Louis.  After requesting to be temporarily yanked from the role, Tony La Russa did just that.  Ryan Franklin and Russ Springer will split closing duties until Izzy gets his groove back.
• Eric Gagne was yanked from the closers role, with Ned Yost giving him a "mental break".  Tim Dierkes did a great job breaking down the closer-by-committee situation in Milwaukee.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• The Twins put P Scott Baker on the DL with a strained right groin, calling up Glen Perkins from AAA [MiLB Value -$0.62].  Perkins will get the start on Saturday, and Kevin Slowey, returning from a strained right biceps, will return to the rotation today.
• Mark Mulder has a rotator cuff strain, which will sideline him for 7 to 10 days before being reevaluated.  He's looked terrible in his rehab starts, logging a 6.66 ERA in 25.2 IP.
• Tests showed no major structural damage to Braves RP Rafael Soriano's elbow.  He's still a while away from returning to the bigs.

Transactions:

• The Blue Jays sent down OF Adam Lind, calling up INF Jorge Velandia [MiLB Value $5.25] to take his roster spot.  Velandia could see some PT with both David Eckstein and John McDonald dinged up.
• The Giants sent down P Brad Hennessey, calling up P Billy Sadler [MiLB Value $4.27] to take his spot.  Sadler could be a good MR option for NL Only leagues, as his 10.38 career K/9 would be beneficial. 

Misc.:

• The A's will move Chad Gaudin to the bullpen, making room for Rich Harden in the rotation starting Sunday against the Rangers.
• The Rockies moved Mark Redman to the bullpen, not impressed by his 7.84 ERA.  Greg Reynolds [MiLB value -$24.98] is expected to take his spot in the rotation.
• My apologies to the RSS subscribers who received a strange post last night.  I was setting up a new blogging program, and it didn't delete the test post it was supposed to delete.

Position Review: 2nd Base

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Best HR Source: Chase Utley [13]
Best R Source: Chase Utley [30]
Best RBI Source: Chase Utley [26]
Best SB Source: Brian Roberts [10]
Best AVG Source: Chase Utley [47 H in 134 AB]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Chase Utley-$48.26-This Utley kid is really going to be something someday.  Buy.
2. Dan Uggla-$17.66-A typical Uggla season thus far - 7 HR, .269 AVG.  He shot up this list after hitting 3 HR in the past week.  Who does he think he is, Chase Utley?  We all know Uggla isn't the .282 hitter we saw in '06, but is he .245 hitter we saw in '07?  BP has him at .261, almost in the middle of those two seasons.  I'm not buying $18 value for Uggla - more around $13.  Sell.
3. Ian Kinsler-$17.58-I took Kinsler in my AL-Only league, hoping for a 20/20 season and understanding I'd get around a .270 AVG.  Kinsler's already swiped 7 bases, but the power hasn't come around yet, with only 2 HR on the season.  This value is exactly $0.12 off from where BP's projection would have him, and I think the projection is apt.  Buy.
4. Brandon Phillips-$16.02-Another 30/30 season?  He's hit 5 HR and stolen 5 bases thus far, on pace for around 25 HR and 25 SB.  The .269 AVG is a bit troubling, but give him some time to work out of that.  Buy.
5. Brian Roberts-$15.72-Just 6 for his last 27, with 1 R, 1 RBI, and 0 SB.  Roberts value is completely dependent upon him swiping bases, which he's still on pace to do at an elite level.  Buy.
6. Dustin Pedroia-$14.75-Hitting .250 over the past week with 5 R, 5 RBI, and 1 SB, I think Pedroia will be around this value as a $13-$15 player.  Buy.
7. Jose Lopez-$12.75-A dropoff from last week, Lopez's return to Earth continues.  Sell.
8. Mark DeRosa-$12.13-Just 3 for 20 over the past week, DeRosa's value is coming back down slowly.  Expect the regression to continue.  Sell.
9. Kelly Johnson-$11.86-Marginally increasing his value over the past week, Johnson is lifting his AVG by hitting .389 over the past week.  I'm a fan of Johnson, and think he's starting to heat up.  Buy.
10. Ronny Cedeno-$11.39-One of the more unlikely names to see here, Cedeno showed up on my stat report as a 2B, though he's also SS eligible in most formats.  My preseason projections had Cedeno at -$11.17, so I'm naturally a little skeptical that he'll outperform that by $20.  His PT [only 51 AB thus far] is one reason why I can't imagine he'll continue to put up the counting stats he's put up thus far.  Sell.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• Jimmy Rollins is nearing a return to the bigs, as soon as tomorrow.
• Orlando Hudson had an MRI on his sore hamstring.  Although the D-Backs won't release the results right away, they think it'll on be a couple of days.
• The Blue Jays suffered injuries to both David Eckstein and John McDonald in the same game, Eckstein with a sore groin and McDonald with an injured ankle.
• San Diego P Kevin Cameron sprained his elbow, an injury that will likely move him to the DL. 

Transactions:

• Alexei Ramirez was reinstated to the White Sox roster, as the team returns from Canada.
• The Rockies sent down Josh Newman, calling up Alberto Arias [MiLB Value -$2.63] to take his place.

Position Review: 1st Base

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.

Best HR Source: Lance Berkman [10]
Best R Source: Lance Berkman [30]
Best RBI Source: Lance Berkman [31]
Best SB Source: Lance Berkman [4]
Best AVG Source: Albert Pujols [39 H in 110 AB]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Lance Berkman-$42.07-I think we all know the Big Puma is legit.  His performance from tonight is not even included in this report; he went 5/5 with 4 R, 1 RBI, and 2 SB tonight.  He's going to compete for the Most Valuable Fantasy Player Award with Chase Utley.  Buy.
2. Derrek Lee-$32.99-A bit of a cold streak, only hitting .241 over the past week.  His 2 SB on the season are a good sign [better than none], as he's one of the only first basemen capable of stealing 10 bases...along with Lance Berkman, who seems to think he's Carl Crawford lately.  Buy.
3. Conor Jackson-$27.67-Right as I mention Jackson's HR ceiling, he hits two in the past week and even steals a base. He may slip a little, but its evident he's going to be a valuable 1B this season.  Buy.
4. Albert Pujols-$25.25-Only hitting .238 over the past week, he's hitting a bit of a down streak.  I think he need to face some Astros pitching to get things going in the power game.  Regardless, my concern on his elbow is gone, and I think he's just going to be Albert from here on out.  Buy.
5. Adrian Gonzalez-$20.84-With 4 HR in the past week, Gonzo is finding his power stroke.  He seems to have a deficiency in R/RBI, but that's to be expected in that Padres offense.  It's because of the team dependent stats that he won't rise to be a top-tier 1B, but there's no reason to think he won't have a value around here.  Buy.
6. Casey Kotchman-$19.08-The AVG stayed high at .348 over the past week, with 4 R and 5 RBI.  I still think his HR ceiling will keep him from being a $19 1B, but if he's still around here in the next two weeks, I'll reverse my position.  Sell.
7. Kevin Youkilis-$16.04-A hot streak for Youk, hitting 2 HR and even stealing a base in the past week.  I'm not one to buy on a hot streak, and Youk is pretty much known to be over his head at this value.  Sell.
8. Mike Jacobs-$14.38-The decline continues...Sell.
9. Miguel Cabrera-$14.07-Now eligible at 1B in most formats, he showed up on my BP stat report as a 1B.  He's still yet to find his groove, as he's hitting .264, but I think we all know he'll get that AVG up a bit.  Buy.
10. Justin Morneau-$14.06-Down a bit from last week, I'm starting to come around on Morneau in this value range.  It's amazing what consistency can do to change my mind - or maybe I'm just in a good mood because of the night my presidential candidate has had, and think that every 1B in the world is great.  Buy.

Odds & Ends

Injuries:

• After undergoing an appendectomy, the Red Sox placed OF Brandon Moss on the DL and recalled Craig Hansen from AAA.  I saw Hansen pitch in last night's game; the guy has filthy stuff.  Too bad he's given up 3 ER in 3.1 IP thus far.
• Doug Davis threw a simulated game on Monday, and will pitch either this Saturday or Sunday in a rehab start at AAA Tucson.  He could rejoin the rotation for the May 20-22 series against Florida.  With Webb/Haren/Johnson/Owings being pretty much set, Max Scherzer could get sent back to the bullpen if he struggles like he did last night.

Transactions:

• The Braves acquired 1B/OF Greg Norton from Seattle for cash or a PTBNL.  To make room for Norton, the Braves placed INF Martin Prado on the DL.  Norton will be limited to bench duty, leaving him for only deep NL-Only format.
• The Reds activated David "Stormy" Weathers from the DL, optioning reliever Bill Bray to AAA Louisville.
• Jason Michaels was cut by the Indians, making room for Ben Francisco in the bigs.  Francisco is a good AL Only add, though he was already owned in my league.
• The Tigers DFA'd Jacque Jones, calling up OF Matt Joyce [MiLB Value $18.72] to take his roster spot.  Joyce started in RF, going 0-2 with a walk.

Misc.:

• Although Bronson Arroyo currently has a 8.63 ERA, he's not physically hurt.
• B.J. Ryan has been cleared to pitch on consecutive days.  He's looking good so far this year with a 0.00 ERA in 8.0 IP, though he's gotten himself into some trouble with a 1.50 WHIP.

MiLB Report: AAA

To download the Excel sheet with the valuation data, click here.  Please note that I now list the major league affiliate for whom the player plays for.  Ex: Nelson Cruz-OF-TEX means that Nelson Cruz is an outfielder in the Rangers' farm system. 

Best HR Source: Nelson Cruz-TEX [11]
Best R Source: Nelson Cruz-TEX [32]
Best RBI Source: Nelson Cruz-TEX [32]
Best SB Source: Nelson Cruz-TEX [11]
Best AVG Source: Terry Tiffee-LAD [57 H in 122 AB]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Nelson Cruz-OF-TEX-$67.53-This is just getting ridiculous.  Cruz is leading in every category besides AVG, where he's still hitting .375.  He's been successful at AAA before, but not this successful.  There doesn't seem to be much budge in the Rangers' OF/DH group, but Cruz is doing all he can to force himself into the picture.
2. Terry Tiffee-3B-LAD-$44.82-He's a Quad-A player, but the .457 AVG is still impressive.
3. Matthew Brown-3B-LAA-$39.37-An impressive run for Brown, but the recent injuries at the big league level to Howie Kendrick and Maicer Izturis show us that he's destined to stay out of the MLB picture.
4. Mike Aviles-SS-KCR-$35.30-Quad-A.
5. Jeff Clement-C-SEA-$34.89-His performance at AAA was so impressive that he's still on this list after being called up to the bigs.  He's struggled with 14 ABs in the bigs thus far, but he'll come around.
6. Brett Carroll-OF-FLA-$32.78-Called up to the bigs when Josh Willingham got injured, Carroll doesn't appear to be in line for major PT, as he's logged 1 AB in a few games.
7. Mike Hessman-1B-DET-$32.61-Quad-A.
8. Shane Costa-OF-KCR-$32.48-He's putting up his usually great numbers at AAA, but doesn't appear to be pushing his way to the bigs anytime soon.
9. Andrew McCutchen-OF-PIT-$31.95-You may have heard of this guy.  As an 8th grader in Polk County FL, he outhit high schoolers with a .507 AVG.  As a senior, he hit .709 with 16 homers.  Just 21 years old, McCutchen has hit 6 HR and stolen 9 bases while hitting .294.  He's on his way to superstardom, and will be with the Pirates big league team at some point this season.  Lastings Milledge, Grady Sizemore, and Adam Jones are all apt comparables for the potential McCutchen has.
10. Dewayne Wise-OF-CWS-$27.81-Quad-A.

Best W Source: Eddie Bonine-DET [6]
Best SV Source: Blaine Neal-DET [11]
Best K Source: David Purcey-TOR [45]
Best ERA Source: Darrell Rasner-NYY & Nick Adenhart-LAA [31.0 IP of 0.87 ERA]
Best WHIP Source: Mike Koplove-LAD [18.1 IP of 0.44 WHIP]

Thoughts on the Top 10:

1. Darrell Rasner-NYY-$30.17-Called up to the bigs, Rasner's stretch in AAA makes the case for a AL Only add.  He did pretty well in his first start against Seattle.
2. David Purcey-TOR-$27.02-An encouraging sign for the 16th overall pick in the 2004 draft.  He's been way to inconsistent in the past to get too excited, though.  With the Blue Jays' rotation looking pretty good, Purcey's best chance for an impact seems to be in the bullpen.
3. Max Scerzer-ARI-$23.30-Another big league callup, Scherzer lasted 4 innings,giving up 2 runs and 2 walks with 5 strikeouts in his big league debut tonight. 
4. Blaine Neal-DET-$23.23-Quad-A.
5. Brian Sanches-WAS-$22.01-Quad-A.
6. Jose Veras-NYY-$21.33-Quad-A.
7. Lance Broadway-CWS-$21.31-The White Sox's #4 prospect heading into the season, Broadway has been pretty impressive with a 1.25 ERA in 36 IP.  His K rate is a respectable 6.61 in his minor league career.  Broadway's not going to be a big impact guy, but could play into the AL Only picture if he forces his way into the big league rotation.
8. Homer Bailey-CIN-$20.33-Bailey is back in the Top 10 once more.  With the Reds not looking to impressive, Bailey could force his way into the picture in the near future if he keeps pitching this well at AAA.
9. Nick Adenhart-LAA-$20.01-Called up to the bigs, check out my breakdown on Adenhart here.
10. Shawn Camp-TOR-$19.21-Quad-A.